App State at Georgia Southern - 2024 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (6:00 PM EST)
Georgia Southern -2.5 (60.5) (-135) Open: -2.5 | 62.5
Georgia Southern 29 - App State: 20 (Sun Belt)

Mountaineers (5 - 6) (3 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 6 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Georgia Southern -6 (SP+ GASO -6)
Projected Score: APP: 27 - GASO: 33 (61)
GASO Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
APP Travel: 263 miles

Eagles (8 - 5) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
GASO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	App State vs East Tennessee State	-35.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	App State at Clemson	+13.5	53.5	L 20 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/14	App State at East Carolina	+0.5	56.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Thu 9/19	App State vs South Alabama	-8.0	62.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	App State at Marshall	+3.0	56.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	App State at Louisiana	+10.0	64.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	App State vs Georgia State	-7.5	59.0	W 33 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/2	App State vs Old Dominion	+2.5	58.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/7	App State at Coastal Carolina	-1.5	62.5	L 24 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	App State vs James Madison	+7.5	57.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/30	App State at Georgia Southern	+2.5	60.5	L 20 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia Southern vs Boise State	+13.0	57.5	L 45 - 56	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Georgia Southern at Nevada	+1.5	56.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State	-27.5	52.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Georgia Southern at Ole Miss	+35.0	68.5	L 13 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/28	Georgia Southern at Georgia State	+3.5	57.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia Southern vs Marshall	-1.0	58.5	W 24 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/19	Georgia Southern vs James Madison	+9.5	58.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Georgia Southern at Old Dominion	-1.0	52.0	L 19 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Georgia Southern at South Alabama	+5.5	60.0	W 34 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Georgia Southern vs Troy	-7.0	54.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	+2.0	59.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia Southern vs App State	-2.5	60.5	W 29 - 20	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston	-3.5	48.0	L 26 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#41 (.24)	46% (28)	24.2	43% (75)	3.18 (55)	172	50% (11)	273	3.8 (77)	#79 (.2)	43% (76)	29.8	45% (93)	41% (58)	3.15 (17)	40.5	1.6	1.8
GASO	#55 (.21)	45% (32)	27.9	48% (21)	3.13 (64)	117	45% (40)	302	3.64 (88)	#118 (.27)	45% (107)	32.3	45% (94)	45% (115)	4.45 (123)	51.8	2.4	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GASO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	14	24.2	21.6	45.6%	3.8	1.6	24	445	172	273	4.5	51%	48%	43%	50%	16%	.24
GASO Defense	13	32.3	33	44.9%	4.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	45%	22%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	14	29.8	37.4	42.6%	3.15	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	45%	41%	18%	.2
GASO Offense	13	27.9	36.2	45.3%	3.64	2.4	23	419	117	302	4	35%	64%	48%	45%	17%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	14	31:15	23.7	42%	64%	4.4	40.5	1.6	1.8	6	2.5	2	29.3
Georgia Southern	13	31:06	23.1	46%	59%	5.8	51.8	2.4	1.6	7	1.8	4	30.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	14	51% (58)	43% (75)	38.1	171.6	4.5	23 (46)	.09 (99)	3.18 (55)	71% (92)	9% (49)	0.97 (83)
GASO Defense	13	49% (55)	45% (94)	-	-	-	-	.25 (122)	3.16 (85)	72% (59)	14% (7)	1.13 (116)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	14	50% (59)	45% (93)	-	-	-	-	.23 (112)	3.41 (120)	79% (108)	11% (40)	1.1 (113)
GASO Offense	13	35% (130)	48% (21)	29	117.1	4	16 (89)	.23 (25)	3.13 (64)	78% (35)	10% (63)	1.05 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	14	48% (75)	50% (11)	21.4	33.6	273.4	8.1	12.8	34 (9)	10 (56)	.44 (19)	1.6 (65)	29% (28)	37% (16)	.5 (19)	7% (108)	2.1 (45)
GASO Defense	13	50% (81)	45% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.3 (89)	1.5 (32)	31% (96)	35% (120)	.49 (127)	9% (5)	2.1 (81)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	14	49% (72)	41% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (30)	1.5 (36)	31% (81)	33% (110)	.43 (117)	7% (29)	2.1 (89)
GASO Offense	13	64% (4)	45% (40)	28.9	44.4	302.2	6.8	10.5	26 (31)	20 (133)	.26 (74)	1.4 (131)	30% (41)	34% (35)	.41 (42)	8% (114)	2.1 (62)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -8.96 #97
App State's Offense Rating: 21.99 #50
App State's Defense Rating: 17.06 #121
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
App State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 6.0
App State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.96 Georgia Southern: -2.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.1 Georgia Southern: -1.7

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -2.765 #96
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 20.12 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 14.04 #102
2024 Talent Rating: 245.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Georgia Southern's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Georgia Southern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.7 #76
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia Southern 33
App State 27

Projected Total Points: 61

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Georgia Southern's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/06	App State	23	Georgia Southern	25	App State -4.5	Georgia Southern	62.5	Under
2025	12/29	App State	10	Georgia Southern	29	Georgia Southern -10	Georgia Southern	58.5	Under
2024	11/30	Georgia Southern	29	App State	20	Georgia Southern -2.5	Georgia Southern	60.5	Under
2023	11/25	App State	55	Georgia Southern	27	Appalachian State -7.5	App State	62.5	Over
2022	11/26	Georgia Southern	51	App State	48	Appalachian State -6.5	Georgia Southern	66.0	Over
2021	11/27	App State	27	Georgia Southern	3	Appalachian State -24.5	Georgia Southern	55.0	Under
2020	12/12	Georgia Southern	26	App State	34	Appalachian State -9	Georgia Southern	45.0	Over
2019	10/31	App State	21	Georgia Southern	24	Appalachian State -15	Georgia Southern	44.5	Over
2018	10/25	Georgia Southern	34	App State	14	Appalachian State -11	Georgia Southern	47.5	Over
2017	11/09	App State	27	Georgia Southern	6	Appalachian State -17.5	App State	51.5	Under
2016	10/27	Georgia Southern	10	App State	34	Appalachian State -4	App State	46.5	Under
2015	10/22	App State	31	Georgia Southern	13	Appalachian State -6	App State	60.0	Under
2014	09/25	Georgia Southern	34	App State	14	Georgia Southern -17	Georgia Southern	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia Southern	7	9	5 Overs
App State	6	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 5	8 - 5	5 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 8	5 - 8	2 - 3	3 - 5

(#97) APP at (#96) GASO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	GASO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#97	#96
SP+SP+	#100	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#84	#95
OffenseOff	#70	#96
DefenseDef	#92	#90
Spec TeamsST	#69	#74
TalentTal	#72	#98
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

App State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Loggains (OC/QB S Car 23-24)
(12/2) HC Clark fired after 40-24 in 5 yrs, Huff rumors?
(11/25) Huge upset vs JMU, box score L but 2 Def TOs
(11/8) Run D bad vs C.Car, 3 TO's hurt. QB Aguilar 2 INT
(11/3) Pass D torched by ODU, Aguilar good, forced 4 TOs
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#127) into week 9
(10/12) OG'd ULL but 5 TO's, QB/Rgame OK, Def meh
(9/23) Clark & staff better improve, feels stale/bad
(9/23) Missed 26 tackles! vs S Al
(9/19) This Off looks broken. Rgame awful, Aguilar erratic
(9/12) D not P5 ready, 712 yds to Clem. QB Aguilar ?
(7/30) QB Aguilar v good, WRs all back, lost RB to Mizzu.
App State Injury Report

Georgia Southern Notes(11/25) Big W @ Coastal. Beat App & help=SBC title
(11/25) French torced CC, Rgame awful, Def 3 INTs in W
(11/18) Bad L vs Troy, Rgame awful, Pass D awful
(11/3) Big W (S. Al), Outgained (100+) but forced 2 TOs
(10/24) Killed by ODU, gave up 500+ yds, 250+ rushing
(10/20) Rgame 190 (4.8 ypc), Def great in JMU upset
(10/18) QB French (concussion) cleared for JMU game
(10/13) Rgame bad vs Marshall, 21 pt 4Q comeback W
(9/28) Rgame 261 (5.4), French good vs Ga St.
(9/1) Good fight vs Boise, QB French good. Def awful
(8/17) Big year for Helton, need progress
(7/30) QB battle, Williams (IU) vs French, WR look good
Georgia Southern Injury Report

App State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GASO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#90
SuccessSuc	#28	#107
ExplosiveExp	#64	#83
PPAPPA	#41	#118
PowerPwr	#50	#102
SP+SP+	#67	#90
Pts POPPO	#77	#123
HavocHav	#73	#4

App State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#48	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#94
Run ExplRExp	#83	#116
PPAExp	#99	#122
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#85
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#61
TackleTak	-	#64

App State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#11	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#32
PPAExp	#19	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#89
F7 HavocF7	#49	#7
DB HavocDB	#108	#5

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	APP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#92
SuccessSuc	#32	#76
ExplosiveExp	#95	#70
PPAPPA	#55	#79
PowerPwr	#66	#121
SP+SP+	#72	#110
Pts POPPO	#88	#17
HavocHav	#91	#26

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#80	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#93
Run ExplRExp	#41	#113
PPAExp	#25	#112
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#95
TackleTak	-	#86

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#36
PPAExp	#74	#30
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#23	#34
F7 HavocF7	#63	#40
DB HavocDB	#114	#29

Program Comparison
GASO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Georgia Southern -2.5 (60.5)
Georgia Southern won vs App State this year (29-20)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Southern beat App State last year (29-10)
Georgia Southern beat App State in 2024 (29-20)
App State beat Georgia Southern in 2023 (55-27)

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	218	390	56%	3002	23	14	7.7
Kaedin Robinson	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Kanye Roberts	82	332	1	4.0	18
Anderson Castle	50	246	1	4.9	21
Joey Aguilar	58	217	2	3.7	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	53	840	2	15.8	50
Makai Jackson	46	745	5	16.2	64
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0
Jason Chambers (Tr)	37	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1
Santana Hopper	30	8	4	0
Michael Fletcher	16	4	4	6
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	269	410	66%	2831	17	11	6.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)	19	30	63%	248	3	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen White	164	745	14	4.5	49
OJ Arnold	62	315	3	5.1	32
JC French	118	238	2	2.0	19
David Mbadinga	58	229	3	3.9	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Derwin Burgess Jr.	59	659	3	11.2	48
Josh Dallas	46	614	6	13.3	59
Dalen Cobb	52	599	4	11.5	55
LV Bunkley-Shelton (Tr)	30	322	0	10.7	34

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Watson-Trent	118	8	2	2	1
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Jusfin Meyers	61	3	1	1	1
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Davion Rhodes	22	6	3	1	0
Elhadj Fall	20	5	3	1	1
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7
Isaac Walker	23	4	2	3	3