Texas Tech at Oklahoma State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Texas Tech logo (#13)Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Texas Tech -5 (63.5) (-180)  Open: -4.0
Texas Tech 56 - Oklahoma State: 48  (Big 12)

 
Red Raiders (8 - 5) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Joey McGuire (15 - 11)
Avg Score : 38 - 35 (31 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
TTU coming off BYE
OKST coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas Tech -1.5  (SP+ TTU -7)

Projected Score: TTU: 33 - OKST: 31 (64)
TTU Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
TTU Travel: 324 miles
Cowboys (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (166 - 79)
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.558.5W 52 - 51ON
Sat 9/7 Texas Tech at Washington State-2.564.5L 16 - 37UN
Sat 9/14 Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.570.5W 66 - 21OY
Sat 9/21 Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.558.5W 30 - 22UY
Sat 9/28 Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.060.0W 44 - 41ON
Sat 10/5 Texas Tech at Arizona+6.064.0W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.556.0L 35 - 59ON
Sat 10/26 Texas Tech at TCU+5.066.0L 34 - 35OY
Sat 11/2 Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.555.0W 23 - 22UY
Sat 11/9 Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.062.0L 27 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.063.5W 56 - 48OY
Sat 11/30 Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.561.5W 52 - 15OY
Fri 12/27 Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.552.5L 26 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.554.0W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/7 Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.560.5W 39 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.562.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/21 Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.053.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 9/28 Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.058.0L 20 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.565.0L 14 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Oklahoma State at BYU+8.553.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/26 Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.064.5L 28 - 38ON
Sat 11/2 Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.057.0L 21 - 42ON
Sat 11/9 Oklahoma State at TCU+10.568.5L 13 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.063.5L 48 - 56ON
Fri 11/29 Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.566.5L 0 - 52UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)37.645% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)34.844% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)27.243% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)35.647% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Offense1337.631.444.2%4.731.5234251502754.545%55%45%43%14%.25
OKST Defense1235.634.845.6%3.931.3 - - - - - 50%50%47%44%15%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Defense1334.832.843.6%3.971.6 - - - - - 45%54%44%44%13%.23
OKST Offense1227.230.843.1%4.221.8203791142653.942%58%43%44%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas Tech1327:5022.849%52%759.41.51.64.61.5231
Oklahoma State1227:0320.435%65%543.21.81.35.52.1127.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Offense1345% (104)45% (49)33.2149.64.524 (45).17 (46)3.17 (45)72% (81)8% (38)1.05 (42)
OKST Defense1250% (65)47% (107) - - - - .31 (133)3.43 (126)73% (68)8% (112)1.25 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Defense1345% (16)44% (76) - - - - .12 (69)2.75 (30)62% (14)8% (108)1.08 (111)
OKST Offense1242% (117)43% (86)29.4114.23.918 (78).04 (109)2.79 (107)74% (61)7% (19)0.87 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Offense1355% (27)43% (51)24.338.6275.47.111.330 (9)9 (48).31 (44)1.6 (77)32% (81)34% (39).39 (45)6% (66)2 (89)
OKST Defense1250% (73)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (39).37 (123)1.8 (124)32% (56)36% (119).46 (120)6% (53)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Defense1354% (120)44% (101) - - - - - - 14 (23).33 (108)1.7 (106)31% (91)36% (120).45 (116)4% (124)2.1 (94)
OKST Offense1258% (17)44% (47)22.337.5264.77.111.922 (46)17 (127).34 (30)1.6 (67)31% (66)31% (82).32 (77)7% (109)1.9 (99)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 2.09  #55
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 22.17  #49
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 13.59  #99
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Texas Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3  #54
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #25
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #95

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 2.09   Oklahoma State: 1.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 4.3   Oklahoma State: -2.6




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: 1.495  #59
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 25.18  #18
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.51  #105
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #53
Oklahoma State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Oklahoma State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6  #81
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #53
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #102

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.4
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 33
Oklahoma State 31


Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 35
Oklahoma State 28

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 35
Oklahoma State 31

Total Points: 66
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.8
Defense: 35.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

Oklahoma State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Texas Tech42Oklahoma State0Texas Tech -37.5Texas Tech56.5Under
202411/23Oklahoma State48Texas Tech56Texas Tech -5Texas Tech63.5Over
202210/08Oklahoma State41Texas Tech31Oklahoma State -11Texas Tech66.0Over
202111/20Texas Tech0Oklahoma State23Oklahoma State -10Oklahoma State55.0Under
202011/28Oklahoma State50Texas Tech44Oklahoma State -12Texas Tech57.0Over
201910/05Texas Tech45Oklahoma State35Oklahoma State -9Texas Tech62.5Over
201809/22Oklahoma State17Texas Tech41Oklahoma State -14.5Texas Tech76.0Under
201709/30Texas Tech34Oklahoma State41Oklahoma State -10.5Texas Tech84.5Under
201611/12Oklahoma State45Texas Tech44Oklahoma State -11Texas Tech87.5Over
201510/31Texas Tech53Oklahoma State70Oklahoma State -1Oklahoma State77.5Over
201409/25Oklahoma State45Texas Tech35Oklahoma State -14Texas Tech0
201311/02Texas Tech34Oklahoma State52Oklahoma State -2.5Oklahoma State0
201211/17Oklahoma State59Texas Tech21
201111/12Texas Tech6Oklahoma State66
201010/16Texas Tech17Oklahoma State34
200911/14Oklahoma State24Texas Tech17
200811/08Texas Tech56Oklahoma State20
200709/22Oklahoma State49Texas Tech45
200611/18Texas Tech30Oklahoma State24
200511/12Oklahoma State24Texas Tech17
200411/27Texas Tech31Oklahoma State15
200310/18Oklahoma State51Texas Tech49
200211/09Texas Tech49Oklahoma State24
200111/10Oklahoma State30Texas Tech49
200011/10Texas Tech58Oklahoma State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State1536 Overs
Texas Tech1094 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 93 - 91 - 52 - 4
Road Teams9 - 169 - 34 - 25 - 1

(#55) TTU at (#59) OKST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTTUOKST
Power RatePwr #55 #59
SP+SP+ #54 #81
Perf GradeGrade #84 #103
OffenseOff #40 #65
DefenseDef #122 #128
Spec TeamsST #24 #49
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #53

Texas Tech Notes
(12/5) Hired Tex St OC Mack Leftwich
(11/23) Morton torched bad Pokes. Pass Def was awful
(11/13) 10-0 lead gone vs CU, Rgame bad, Morton OK
(11/2) Big W @ ISU, still had 10 flags, 2 TOs, outgained
(10/30) QB Morton to start vs Iowa State
(10/30) Gagged 31-14 lead vs TCU, backup QB TOs cost
(10/27) QB Morton inj, Fr Hammond took over vs TCU
(10/19) Typical Tech, killed by Baylor. Shit coach/team
(10/7) 3 big W's. Morton is hot, Pass & Run game decent
(9/23) QB Morton meh, Def better in W vs ASU
(9/8) D allowed 301 yds rushing vs Wazzu. 4 TOs. Woof

Oklahoma State Notes
(12/10) Hired DC Todd Grantham (NFL, Florida)
(11/29) What does Gundy do to reset? Or does he?
(11/29) Killed by Buffs 52-0. OG'd 471-147. QB/RB awful
(11/29) 18 yr bowl streak over, was 2nd longest in CFB
(11/23) Fight w/ TT, QB Smith great, Def abysmal
(11/13) Quit. Awful vs TCU, Def is shockingly awful
(11/3) Pokes Def is worst in P4 and near worst in CFB
(11/2) Team has Quit. Have all 40 ppg in B12 play.
(10/19) Rangel inj vs BYU, out 'a while'. Bowman back
(10/19) Monitor for quit watch after BYU collapse
(10/18) QB Bowman benched, SO Rangel (FR Flores?)
Texas Tech on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
TTU OffOKST Def
Perf GradePerf #40 #128
SuccessSuc #50 #109
ExplosiveExp #40 #132
PPAPPA #33 #131
PowerPwr #49 #105
SP+SP+ #25 #102
Pts POPPO #7 #82
HavocHav #36 #89
Texas Tech Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
TTU OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #46 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #49 #107
Run ExplRExp #42 #133
PPAExp #46 #133
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #45 #126
Stuff RateStuff #51 #119
TackleTak -  #122
Texas Tech Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
TTU OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #34 #119
Pass SuccessPSuc #51 #108
Pass ExplPExl #77 #124
PPAExp #44 #123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #126
F7 HavocF7 #38 #112
DB HavocDB #66 #53
Oklahoma State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatOKST OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #122
SuccessSuc #63 #93
ExplosiveExp #69 #120
PPAPPA #52 #104
PowerPwr #18 #99
SP+SP+ #53 #95
Pts POPPO #42 #83
HavocHav #45 #123
Oklahoma State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
OKST OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #92 #105
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #76
Run ExplRExp #119 #111
PPAExp #109 #69
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #30
Stuff RateStuff #80 #35
TackleTak -  #133
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatOKST OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #101 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #101
Pass ExplPExl #67 #106
PPAExp #30 #108
Pass Block/RushP Blk #4 #108
F7 HavocF7 #19 #108
DB HavocDB #109 #124
Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Texas Tech 5.0 (63.5)
Texas Tech won at Oklahoma State this year (56-48)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State last year (56-48)
Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech in 2022 (41-31)

  
TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton29346363%33002787.1
Will Hammond152365%191108.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Brooks2861505175.340
Cameron Dickey2515016.037
J'Koby Williams2611314.313
Cameran Brown (Tr)883010.422
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Kelly (Tr)891023511.541
Caleb Douglas (Tr)55765613.957
Coy Eakin45605613.470
Jalin Conyers (Tr)25271510.836

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez1049543
Ben Roberts745040
C.J. Baskerville603003
Maurion Horn462014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez1049543
Terrell Tilmon84400
Isaac Smith314310
Harvey Dyson III103241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maurion Horn462014
Jacob Rodriguez1049543
C.J. Baskerville603003

OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alan Bowman20434060%244217127.2
Maealiuaki Smith447559%499246.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ollie Gordon189858124.568
Trenten Howland4123015.623
Sesi Vailahi429922.411
Rodney Fields Jr.219914.722
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
De'Zhaun Stribling52892617.277
Brennan Presley8976478.636
Rashod Owens32515416.158
Talyn Shettron12245120.478

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Bryan Nardo (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Rucker841001
Kendal Daniels6411637
Jeff Roberson589370
Parker Robertson492001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendal Daniels6411637
Jeff Roberson589370
Obi Ezeigbo (Tr)429340
Xavier Ross123311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korie Black360009
Kendal Daniels6411637
Cam Smith341007