Indiana at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#2)Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Indiana -7.5 (53.5) (-305) Open: -7.0
Indiana 47 - Michigan State: 10 (Big Ten)

Hoosiers (11 - 2) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 41 - 16 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Indiana -20 (SP+ IND -24.5)
Projected Score: IND: 35 - MSU: 15 (49)
IND Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
IND Travel: 267 miles

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
IND Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Indiana's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Indiana vs Florida International	-20.5	50.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Indiana vs Western Illinois	-44.5	52.5	W 77 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Indiana at UCLA	-3.5	46.5	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Indiana vs Charlotte	-28.5	50.0	W 52 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Indiana vs Maryland	-7.5	50.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Indiana vs Northwestern	-12.5	40.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Indiana vs Nebraska	-6.5	48.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Indiana vs Washington	-5.5	54.0	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Indiana at Michigan State	-7.5	53.5	W 47 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Indiana vs Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Indiana at Ohio State	+10.5	52.5	L 15 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Indiana vs Purdue	-28.5	56.5	W 66 - 0	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Indiana at Notre Dame	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Indiana's Schedule

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IND	#6 (.33)	52% (2)	41.3	50% (13)	3.09 (55)	166	56% (2)	261	5.03 (1)	#19 (.09)	38% (24)	15.6	35% (7)	40% (70)	3.66 (55)	43.9	0.7	1.8
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IND	#6 (.33)	52% (2)		50% (13)	3.09 (55)	166	56% (2)	261	5.03 (1)	#19 (.09)	38% (24)		35% (7)	40% (70)	3.66 (55)	43.9	0.7	1.8
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IND Offense	13	41.3	30.3	52.4%	5.03	0.7	23	428	166	261	4.5	52%	48%	50%	56%	13%	.33
MSU Defense	12	26.1	24.7	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IND Defense	13	15.6	22	38.1%	3.66	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	35%	40%	21%	.09
MSU Offense	12	19.3	20.4	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Indiana	13	30:42	23.5	48%	59%	4.8	43.9	0.7	1.8	6.7	2.7	2	34.5
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IND Offense	13	52% (60)	50% (13)	37.2	166.2	4.5	37 (6)	.17 (48)	3.09 (55)	75% (53)	7% (16)	0.89 (107)
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IND Defense	13	45% (10)	35% (7)	-	-	-	-	.01 (16)	2.4 (4)	66% (27)	13% (9)	1.05 (96)
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IND Offense	13	48% (73)	56% (2)	18.9	27.8	261.3	9.4	13.8	33 (5)	6 (10)	.53 (2)	1.6 (64)	27% (12)	39% (3)	.5 (11)	6% (73)	2.1 (52)
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IND Defense	13	55% (127)	40% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.15 (29)	1.3 (3)	32% (59)	28% (30)	.19 (21)	7% (26)	1.6 (1)
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: 17.50 #10
Indiana's Offense Rating: 28.20 #6
Indiana's Defense Rating: 4.35 #24
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Indiana's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Indiana's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.1 #11
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.4 #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Indiana: 17.50 Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Indiana: 20.1 Michigan State: -4.6

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 15.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Indiana's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Indiana 35
Michigan State 15

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Indiana 25
Michigan State 14

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Indiana 31
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 51

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Indiana	38	Michigan State	13	Indiana -26.5	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2024	11/02	Michigan State	10	Indiana	47	Indiana -7.5	Indiana	53.5	Over
2023	11/18	Indiana	21	Michigan State	24	Indiana -3.5	Michigan State	47.5	Under
2022	11/19	Michigan State	31	Indiana	39	Michigan State -12	Indiana	47.0	Over
2021	10/16	Indiana	15	Michigan State	20	Michigan State -3.5	Michigan State	48.5	Under
2020	11/14	Michigan State	0	Indiana	24	Indiana -7.5	Indiana	53.0	Under
2019	09/28	Michigan State	40	Indiana	31	Michigan State -14	Indiana	43.5	Over
2018	09/22	Indiana	21	Michigan State	35	Michigan State -5.5	Michigan State	51.0	Over
2017	10/21	Michigan State	17	Indiana	9	Michigan State -6.5	Michigan State	47.5	Under
2016	10/01	Indiana	24	Michigan State	21	Michigan State -8	Indiana	52.5	Under
2015	10/24	Michigan State	52	Indiana	26	Michigan State -17	Michigan State	59.0	Over
2014	10/18	Indiana	17	Michigan State	56	Michigan State -14	Michigan State	0
2013	10/12	Michigan State	42	Indiana	28	Michigan State -7.5	Michigan State	0
2012	10/06	Indiana	27	Michigan State	31
2011	11/19	Michigan State	55	Indiana	3
2008	09/27	Indiana	29	Michigan State	42
2007	10/13	Michigan State	52	Indiana	27
2006	10/28	Indiana	46	Michigan State	21
2005	10/29	Michigan State	46	Indiana	15
2004	09/25	Indiana	20	Michigan State	30
2003	10/04	Michigan State	31	Indiana	3
2002	11/09	Indiana	21	Michigan State	56
2001	11/10	Michigan State	28	Indiana	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	16	8	6 Overs
Indiana	7	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	4 - 9	3 - 4	1 - 5
Road Teams	12 - 11	9 - 4	5 - 1	4 - 3

(#10) IND at (#70) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	IND	MSU
Power RatePwr	#10	#70
SP+SP+	#11	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#1	#107
OffenseOff	#2	#105
DefenseDef	#4	#104
Spec TeamsST	#4	#122
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#31

Indiana Notes(12/24) Signed QB Mendoza (Cal)/RB Hemby (MD)
(12/5) Co-OC Sunseri hired as UCLA OC after '24
(11/24) Off awful vs OSU, 153 total yards. Def wilted
(11/13) Off human vs Mich, Rgame awful (40 yds, 1.4 ypc)
(11/2) Run Def killed MSU. Off 47 pts but #'s bad
(11/1) 3-0, avg 27 ppg margin of victory in Oct
(10/28) QB Rourke (inj) could play vs Michigan St
(10/19) 500 yds, owned Nebraska. Def was good, fun team
(9/28) 500+ yds vs MD. Overcame 5 TOs, still won
(9/19) V good WR's. Cooper top 5 M2M, 4 good options.
(9/1) Grounded FIU, 234 yds rushing (6 ypc). Def was good
(8/4) Cignetti is cocky/confident & wins everywhere.
Indiana Injury Report

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Indiana on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	IND Off	MSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#2	#104
SuccessSuc	#2	#69
ExplosiveExp	#90	#110
PPAPPA	#6	#85
PowerPwr	#6	#75
SP+SP+	#18	#49
Pts POPPO	#1	#98
HavocHav	#27	#93

Indiana Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	IND Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#33	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#25
Run ExplRExp	#107	#80
PPAExp	#48	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#62	#33
TackleTak	-	#31

Indiana Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	IND Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#5	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#2	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#101
PPAExp	#2	#111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#36	#127
F7 HavocF7	#16	#64
DB HavocDB	#73	#121

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	IND Def
Perf GradePerf	#105	#4
SuccessSuc	#86	#24
ExplosiveExp	#118	#25
PPAPPA	#105	#19
PowerPwr	#101	#24
SP+SP+	#119	#15
Pts POPPO	#116	#55
HavocHav	#98	#6

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	IND Def
Run GameRun	#31	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#7
Run ExplRExp	#126	#96
PPAExp	#116	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#6
TackleTak	-	#94

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	IND Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#3
PPAExp	#79	#29
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#126	#11
F7 HavocF7	#112	#9
DB HavocDB	#63	#26

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

IND 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 54°

Rematch from Week 10
Indiana 7.5 (53.5)
Indiana won at Michigan State this year (47-10)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Michigan State last year (47-10)
Michigan State beat Indiana in 2023 (24-21)
Indiana beat Michigan State in 2022 (39-31)

IND's OC Mike Shanahan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kurtis Rourke (Tr)	222	320	69%	3042	29	5	9.5
Tayven Jackson	23	37	62%	349	4	1	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justice Ellison (Tr)	159	848	10	5.3	47
Ty Son Lawton	141	668	12	4.7	29
Kaelon Black (Tr)	46	251	2	5.5	21
Elijah Green (Tr)	29	201	5	6.9	51

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Sarratt (Tr)	53	957	8	18.1	84
Omar Cooper Jr.	28	594	7	21.2	69
Myles Price (Tr)	38	466	3	12.3	41
Ke'Shawn Williams (Tr)	39	448	5	11.5	52

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Bryant Haines (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Fisher (Tr)	118	6	2	3	4
Jailin Walker (Tr)	82	10	2	5	8
Shawn Asbury II (Tr)	69	5	2	1	4
D'Angelo Ponds	55	5	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mikail Kamara (Tr)	46	14	9	6	1
James Carpenter (Tr)	37	11	5	5	2
Tyrique Tucker (Tr)	24	5	3	4	1
Lanell Carr	39	5	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Ponds	55	5	0	0	9
Jailin Walker (Tr)	82	10	2	5	8
Jamari Sharpe	13	1	1	0	6

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2