Florida Atlantic at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans

Friday, August 30th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Michigan State -12.0 (45.0) (-480) Open: -11.5 | 46.5
Michigan State 16 - Florida Atlantic: 10

Owls (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (Int) (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Michigan State -13.5 (SP+ MSU -8)
Projected Score: FAU: 17 - MSU: 30 (47)
MSU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
FAU Travel: 1157 miles

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FAU Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Florida Atlantic at Michigan State	+12.0	45.0	L 10 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Florida Atlantic vs Army	-1.5	42.5	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida Atlantic vs Florida International	-3.5	44.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Florida Atlantic at UConn	+1.0	46.0	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/28	Florida Atlantic vs Wagner	-34.5	52.5	W 41 - 10	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Florida Atlantic vs North Texas	+5.5	58.5	L 37 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida Atlantic at UTSA	+4.0	52.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	Florida Atlantic vs South Florida	+1.5	48.0	L 21 - 44	O	N
Thu 11/7	Florida Atlantic at East Carolina	+5.5	58.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida Atlantic at Temple	+2.0	50.0	L 15 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/23	Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte	+3.0	49.5	L 27 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/30	Florida Atlantic at Tulsa	-2.5	57.5	W 63 - 16	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FAU	#80 (.17)	39% (108)	25.9	40% (107)	3.15 (48)	189	39% (99)	209	3.19 (122)	#90 (.21)	41% (54)	30.3	43% (72)	38% (39)	3.72 (62)	51.6	1.5	1.6
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FAU	#80 (.17)	39% (108)		40% (107)	3.15 (48)	189	39% (99)	209	3.19 (122)	#90 (.21)	41% (54)		43% (72)	38% (39)	3.72 (62)	51.6	1.5	1.6
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FAU Offense	12	25.9	23.3	39.2%	3.19	1.5	20	398	189	209	5	54%	45%	40%	39%	17%	.17
MSU Defense	12	26.1	24.7	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FAU Defense	12	30.3	30.8	40.6%	3.72	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	38%	16%	.21
MSU Offense	12	19.3	20.4	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida Atlantic	12	30:22	19.5	35%	47%	6.6	51.6	1.5	1.6	5.7	1.4	1	28.5
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FAU Offense	12	54% (41)	40% (107)	38	189.2	5	24 (45)	.2 (34)	3.15 (48)	64% (118)	12% (113)	1.28 (2)
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FAU Defense	12	52% (86)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (87)	3.09 (86)	83% (124)	10% (65)	1.05 (97)
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FAU Offense	12	45% (98)	39% (99)	17.1	29.2	208.6	7.2	12.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.19 (96)	1.6 (51)	33% (105)	32% (65)	.39 (46)	5% (37)	2.1 (43)
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FAU Defense	12	47% (45)	38% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.28 (94)	1.8 (129)	34% (33)	32% (88)	.35 (91)	6% (52)	2.2 (108)
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -16.03 #114
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -16.03 Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -12.7 Michigan State: -4.6

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 25.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 30
Florida Atlantic 17

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida Atlantic 24
Michigan State 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Florida Atlantic 25
Michigan State 25

Total Points: 50

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/30	Michigan State	16	Florida Atlantic	10	Michigan State -12.0	Florida Atlantic	45.0	Under
2011	09/10	Michigan State	44	Florida Atlantic	0
2010	09/11	Florida Atlantic	17	Michigan State	30
2008	09/13	Michigan State	17	Florida Atlantic	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	4	0	0 Overs
Florida Atlantic	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#114) FAU at (#70) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FAU	MSU
Power RatePwr	#114	#70
SP+SP+	#113	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#107
OffenseOff	#84	#105
DefenseDef	#63	#104
Spec TeamsST	#80	#122
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#31

Florida Atlantic Notes(12/23) Signed QB Caden Veltkamp (WKU), huge get
(12/5) Hired new HC Tex Tech OC Zach Kittley
(11/18) HC Herman fired, ST's Lunsford taking over
(11/18) Off is lost. Herman fired after Temple L. DC back?
(11/18) DC Bellantoni back after Herman fired?
(11/10) Fired DC Bellantoni and OL Warinner
(11/8) Killed by ECU, Def mauled, QB Weisman good find?
(11/8) QB Fancher inj (ECU). BU Weisman looks good
(11/4) Def mauled by USF, 300+ rush, 7.4 ypc, Off OK, flags
(10/20) Def bad vs UTSA, 480+ yds. Run heavy but 3 ypc?
(10/12) Fancher/Rgame good, Def torched shootout L N.T.
(8/30) QB Francher bad passer but good runner, slippery
Florida Atlantic Injury Report

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Florida Atlantic on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	MSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#84	#104
SuccessSuc	#108	#69
ExplosiveExp	#5	#110
PPAPPA	#80	#85
PowerPwr	#109	#75
SP+SP+	#109	#49
Pts POPPO	#122	#98
HavocHav	#89	#93

Florida Atlantic Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#68	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#25
Run ExplRExp	#2	#80
PPAExp	#34	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#66	#33
TackleTak	-	#31

Florida Atlantic Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#51	#101
PPAExp	#96	#111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#73	#127
F7 HavocF7	#113	#64
DB HavocDB	#37	#121

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	FAU Def
Perf GradePerf	#105	#63
SuccessSuc	#86	#54
ExplosiveExp	#118	#117
PPAPPA	#105	#90
PowerPwr	#101	#82
SP+SP+	#119	#104
Pts POPPO	#116	#62
HavocHav	#98	#61

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	FAU Def
Run GameRun	#31	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#72
Run ExplRExp	#126	#97
PPAExp	#116	#87
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#86
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#79
TackleTak	-	#110

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	FAU Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#129
PPAExp	#79	#94
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#126	#38
F7 HavocF7	#112	#65
DB HavocDB	#63	#52

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

FAU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 78° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Michigan State -12.0 (45.0)
Michigan State won vs Florida Atlantic this year (16-10)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic last year (16-10)

FAU's OC Charlie Frye (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Kasen Weisman (Tr)	39	73	53%	416	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Zuberi Mobley	91	471	4	5.2	72
Cam Fancher (Tr)	99	365	3	3.7	76
Xavier Terrell	14	261	3	18.6	93

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omari Hayes	39	590	3	15.1	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Jabari Smith	17	296	3	17.4	76
Marlyn Johnson (Tr)	17	169	0	9.9	22

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

FAU's DC Roc Bellantoni (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Heard	74	1	0	0	1
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2
Eddie Williams	51	7	0	2	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Merrifield	15	4	3	2	0
Marlon Bradley	14	5	2	1	0
Chisom Ifeanyi (Tr)	21	4	2	4	0
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kahzir Brown (Tr)	42	2	1	7
Daedae Hill	27	1	0	5
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	1	4

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2