Boise State at Utah State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Boise State -5.5 (62.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Boise State 45 - Utah State: 10 (Mountain West)

Broncos (8 - 6) (7 - 5 - 2)
Coach Andy Avalos (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 4.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USU 2nd straight Home Game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -11.5 (SP+ BSU -16)
Projected Score: BSU: 35 - USU: 23 (58)
BSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
BSU Travel: 257 miles

Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boise State at Washington	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boise State vs UCF	+3.0	58.5	L 16 - 18	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Boise State vs North Dakota	-15.0	58.0	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Boise State at San Diego State	-6.5	46.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boise State at Memphis	+3.0	58.0	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Boise State vs San José State	-8.0	57.5	W 35 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Boise State at Colorado State	-7.5	60.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Boise State vs Wyoming	-4.5	48.5	W 32 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Boise State at Fresno State	+2.5	53.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	58.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Boise State at Utah State	-5.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Boise State vs Air Force	-6.5	44.5	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Boise State at UNLV	-2.5	58.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Utah State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Utah State at Iowa	+24.0	43.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Utah State vs Idaho State	-24.0	61.0	W 78 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	45.5	L 21 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/23	Utah State vs James Madison	+5.5	53.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Utah State at UConn	-4.0	50.5	W 34 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	62.0	W 44 - 24	O	Y
Fri 10/13	Utah State vs Fresno State	+5.5	56.0	L 32 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Utah State at San José State	+4.0	65.0	L 21 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Utah State at San Diego State	-2.0	56.5	W 32 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Utah State vs Nevada	-14.5	54.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Utah State vs Boise State	+5.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/24	Utah State at New Mexico	-4.5	58.5	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/23	Utah State vs Georgia State	-2.0	58.0	L 22 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	.23	43%	29.9	46%	3.34	197	39%	189	4.07	.09	35%	24.1	39%	30%	3.38	47.4	1.2	1.5
USU	.07	38%	30.9	39%	3.13	159	38%	195	3.15	.17	41%	28.7	44%	39%	4.05	77.5	2.1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	42.9%	4.07	1.2	20	386	197	189	5	56%	44%	46%	39%	16%	.23
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	41.2%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	44%	39%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	34.6%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	39%	30%	18%	.09
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	37.9%	3.15	2.1	20	354	159	195	3.8	55%	44%	39%	38%	17%	.07

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	30:50	19.5	40%	59%	5.6	47.4	1.2	1.5	5.1	2.1	2	31.2
Utah State	13	28:47	19.8	33%	53%	8.5	77.5	2.1	1.7	5.8	2.7	3	30.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	56%	46%	39.2	196.5	5	27	.2	3.34	76%	9%	0.97
USU Defense	13	55%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3	71%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	56%	39%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.93	76%	12%	0.94
USU Offense	13	55%	39%	42.2	159.3	3.8	14	.08	3.13	72%	9%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44%	39%	16.4	27.5	189.2	6.9	11.6	20	9	.32	1.7	31%	32%	.45	7%	2.2
USU Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.26	1.7	31%	29%	.24	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	43%	30%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.12	1.9	35%	19%	.09	6%	2.3
USU Offense	13	44%	38%	17.7	30.6	195.2	6.4	11	18	21	.13	1.5	32%	26%	.08	8%	1.7

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.57 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 21.76 #28
Boise State's Defense Rating: 8.84 #58
2023 Talent Rating: 579.88 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Boise State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 4.90
Boise State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.57 Utah State: -5.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 7.4 Utah State: -8.5

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -5.705 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 435.99 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 35
Utah State 23

Projected Total Points: 58

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Utah State	24	Boise State	25	Boise State -1.5	Utah State	54.5	Under
2024	10/05	Boise State	62	Utah State	30	Boise State -28	Boise State	66.5	Over
2023	11/18	Utah State	10	Boise State	45	Boise State -5.5	Boise State	62.5	Under
2022	11/25	Boise State	42	Utah State	23	Boise State -17	Boise State	51.5	Over
2021	09/25	Utah State	3	Boise State	27	Boise State -9.5	Boise State	69.5	Under
2020	10/24	Boise State	42	Utah State	13	Boise State -17	Boise State	51.0	Over
2019	11/23	Utah State	21	Boise State	56	Boise State -9.5	Boise State	53.0	Over
2018	11/24	Boise State	33	Utah State	24	Boise State -2.5	Boise State	65.0	Under
2017	10/28	Utah State	14	Boise State	41	Boise State -13	Boise State	51.5	Over
2016	10/01	Boise State	21	Utah State	10	Boise State -19.5	Utah State	60.5	Under
2015	10/16	Utah State	52	Boise State	26	Boise State -8.5	Utah State	50.5	Over
2014	11/29	Boise State	50	Utah State	19	Boise State -9	Boise State	0
2013	10/12	Utah State	23	Boise State	34	Boise State -7.5	Boise State	0
2010	12/04	Boise State	50	Utah State	14
2009	11/20	Utah State	21	Boise State	52
2008	11/08	Boise State	49	Utah State	14
2007	11/10	Utah State	0	Boise State	52
2006	11/18	Boise State	49	Utah State	10
2005	10/22	Utah State	21	Boise State	45
2002	09/28	Boise State	63	Utah State	38
2000	11/10	Boise State	66	Utah State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	1	3	6 Overs
Boise State	20	10	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 9	7 - 6	5 - 1	2 - 5
Road Teams	9 - 12	6 - 7	5 - 2	1 - 5

(#37) BSU at (#107) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#107
SP+SP+	#41	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#113
OffenseOff	#26	#67
DefenseDef	#111	#131
Spec TeamsST	#64	#91
TalentTal	#72	#104
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

Boise State Injury Report

Utah State Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#131
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#28	#103
SP+SP+	#29	#129
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#3	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#111
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#72	#58
SP+SP+	#49	#70
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#27	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#130

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#129	#109
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Boise State 5.5 (62.5)
Boise State won at Utah State this year (45-10)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Utah State last year (25-24)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2024 (62-30)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2023 (45-10)

BSU's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	121	212	57%	1752	11	9	8.3
Maddux Madsen	81	132	61%	1191	9	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	221	1351	14	6.1	68
George Holani	133	744	7	5.6	75
Taylen Green	78	436	9	5.6	70
Jambres Dubar	62	335	2	5.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	47	873	5	18.6	83
Ashton Jeanty	43	569	5	13.2	75
Billy Bowens	28	383	1	13.7	52
Prince Strachan	12	274	2	22.8	74

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Seyi Oladipo	60	9	2	1	4
Rodney Robinson	54	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmed Hassanein	50	17	13	7	0
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5
Braxton Fely	15	5	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Clark	52	2	0	1	8
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cooper Legas	138	213	65%	1815	19	8	8.5
McCae Hillstead	94	158	60%	1062	11	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth	120	805	6	6.7	65
Rahsul Faison	118	736	5	6.2	60
Robert Briggs	80	420	2	5.3	58
Levi Williams	45	209	3	4.6	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	71	1080	15	15.2	71
Terrell Vaughn	90	937	11	10.4	76
Micah Davis	36	628	6	17.4	76
Colby Bowman (Tr)	11	247	2	22.5	63

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Tafisi	142	9	0	2	1
Ike Larsen	102	5	0	1	6
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Devin Dye	82	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Paul Fitzgerald	46	9	7	1	1
Blaine Spires	26	8	5	10	1
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Hale Motu'apuaka	33	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Devin Dye	82	2	7
Jordan Drew	27	0	6
Avante Dickerson	17	0	6