Utah State at San Diego State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Utah State -2.0 (56.5) (-135) Open: -2.5 | 56.0
Utah State 32 - San Diego State: 24 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USU coming off BYE
SDSU coming off BYE
Our Line: San Diego State -1.5 (SP+ USU -2)
Projected Score: USU: 26 - SDSU: 28 (54)
USU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
USU Travel: 685 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Utah State at Iowa	+24.0	43.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Utah State vs Idaho State	-24.0	61.0	W 78 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	45.5	L 21 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/23	Utah State vs James Madison	+5.5	53.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Utah State at UConn	-4.0	50.5	W 34 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	62.0	W 44 - 24	O	Y
Fri 10/13	Utah State vs Fresno State	+5.5	56.0	L 32 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Utah State at San José State	+4.0	65.0	L 21 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Utah State at San Diego State	-2.0	56.5	W 32 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Utah State vs Nevada	-14.5	54.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Utah State vs Boise State	+5.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/24	Utah State at New Mexico	-4.5	58.5	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/23	Utah State vs Georgia State	-2.0	58.0	L 22 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	.07	38%	30.9	39%	3.13	159	38%	195	3.15	.17	41%	28.7	44%	39%	4.05	77.5	2.1	1.7
SDSU	.14	39%	26.4	38%	2.81	143	41%	181	2.92	.06	38%	15.4	36%	40%	3.15	59.4	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	37.9%	3.15	2.1	20	354	159	195	3.8	55%	44%	39%	38%	17%	.07
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	6.8	37.5%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	36%	40%	19%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	41.2%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	44%	39%	17%	.17
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	31.2	38.8%	2.92	1.8	16	324	143	181	4	53%	46%	38%	41%	20%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	28:47	19.8	33%	53%	8.5	77.5	2.1	1.7	5.8	2.7	3	30.4
San Diego State	13	30:56	15.8	29%	75%	7.4	59.4	1.8	1.9	6.5	2.8	4	30.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	55%	39%	42.2	159.3	3.8	14	.08	3.13	72%	9%	0.92
SDSU Defense	13	44%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.84	62%	13%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	55%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3	71%	11%	1.1
SDSU Offense	13	53%	38%	36.2	143.2	4	11	.08	2.81	58%	14%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	44%	38%	17.7	30.6	195.2	6.4	11	18	21	.13	1.5	32%	26%	.08	8%	1.7
SDSU Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.19	1.5	34%	28%	.18	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.26	1.7	31%	29%	.24	6%	2.2
SDSU Offense	13	46%	41%	14.2	26.3	180.6	6.9	12.7	15	14	.31	1.6	34%	31%	.37	6%	2.2

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.91 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 435.99 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -7.91 San Diego State: -6.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -8.5 San Diego State: -10.5

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -6.495 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 440.15 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 28
Utah State 26

Projected Total Points: 54

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Utah State	41	San Diego State	20	Utah State -5	Utah State	60.0	Over
2023	11/04	San Diego State	24	Utah State	32	Utah State -2.0	Utah State	56.5	Under
2021	12/04	San Diego State	13	Utah State	46	San Diego State -6.5	Utah State	49.5	Over
2020	10/31	Utah State	7	San Diego State	38	San Diego State -7.5	San Diego State	0
2019	09/21	San Diego State	17	Utah State	23	Utah State -4	Utah State	53.0	Under
2016	10/28	Utah State	13	San Diego State	40	San Diego State -3	San Diego State	45.0	Over
2015	10/23	San Diego State	48	Utah State	14	Utah State -5	San Diego State	44.5	Over
2010	09/25	San Diego State	41	Utah State	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	4	3	4 Overs
Utah State	4	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 5	2 - 5	1 - 1	1 - 4
Road Teams	5 - 3	5 - 2	4 - 1	1 - 1

(#107) USU at (#104) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#107	#104
SP+SP+	#97	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#113	#126
OffenseOff	#67	#104
DefenseDef	#131	#133
Spec TeamsST	#91	#52
TalentTal	#104	#103
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#69

Utah State Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#133
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#72	#86
SP+SP+	#49	#91
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#27	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#133

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#129	#134
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#131
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#106	#103
SP+SP+	#110	#129
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#81	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Utah State 2.0 (56.5)
Utah State won at San Diego State this year (32-24)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat San Diego State in 2024 (41-20)
Utah State beat San Diego State in 2023 (32-24)

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cooper Legas	138	213	65%	1815	19	8	8.5
McCae Hillstead	94	158	60%	1062	11	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth	120	805	6	6.7	65
Rahsul Faison	118	736	5	6.2	60
Robert Briggs	80	420	2	5.3	58
Levi Williams	45	209	3	4.6	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	71	1080	15	15.2	71
Terrell Vaughn	90	937	11	10.4	76
Micah Davis	36	628	6	17.4	76
Colby Bowman (Tr)	11	247	2	22.5	63

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Tafisi	142	9	0	2	1
Ike Larsen	102	5	0	1	6
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Devin Dye	82	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Paul Fitzgerald	46	9	7	1	1
Blaine Spires	26	8	5	10	1
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Hale Motu'apuaka	33	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Devin Dye	82	2	7
Jordan Drew	27	0	6
Avante Dickerson	17	0	6

SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Mayden	199	314	63%	2031	10	9	6.5
Tobin O'Dell	1	2	50%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Mayden	128	528	5	4.1	70
Jaylon Armstead	103	448	8	4.3	48
Kenan Christon	96	378	0	3.9	39
Cam Davis	52	225	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Redman	38	408	3	10.7	29
Mekhi Shaw	27	375	2	13.9	69
Brionne Penny	25	290	1	11.6	36
Baylin Brooks	15	261	1	17.4	37

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Cody Moon	58	0	0	9	2
Cedarious Barfield	51	2	0	0	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	51	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Tupu Alualu	27	4	3	4	0
Daniel Okpoko	25	5	2	5	3
Cooper McDonald	39	5	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Tumblin	35	0	0	0	12
Dezjhon Malone	46	2	1	0	7
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5