Utah State at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons

Friday, September 15th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -9 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 39 - Utah State: 21 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Air Force -13 (SP+ AFA -14)
Projected Score: USU: 20 - AFA: 33 (53)
AFA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USU Travel: 413 miles

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Utah State at Iowa	+24.0	43.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Utah State vs Idaho State	-24.0	61.0	W 78 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	45.5	L 21 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/23	Utah State vs James Madison	+5.5	53.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Utah State at UConn	-4.0	50.5	W 34 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	62.0	W 44 - 24	O	Y
Fri 10/13	Utah State vs Fresno State	+5.5	56.0	L 32 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Utah State at San José State	+4.0	65.0	L 21 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Utah State at San Diego State	-2.0	56.5	W 32 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Utah State vs Nevada	-14.5	54.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Utah State vs Boise State	+5.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/24	Utah State at New Mexico	-4.5	58.5	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/23	Utah State vs Georgia State	-2.0	58.0	L 22 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	.07	38%	30.9	39%	3.13	159	38%	195	3.15	.17	41%	28.7	44%	39%	4.05	77.5	2.1	1.7
AFA	.3	49%	29.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	30.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	37.9%	3.15	2.1	20	354	159	195	3.8	55%	44%	39%	38%	17%	.07
AFA Defense	13	30.3	27.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	41.2%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	44%	39%	17%	.17
AFA Offense	13	29.8	27.5	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	28:47	19.8	33%	53%	8.5	77.5	2.1	1.7	5.8	2.7	3	30.4
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	55%	39%	42.2	159.3	3.8	14	.08	3.13	72%	9%	0.92
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	55%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3	71%	11%	1.1
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	44%	38%	17.7	30.6	195.2	6.4	11	18	21	.13	1.5	32%	26%	.08	8%	1.7
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.26	1.7	31%	29%	.24	6%	2.2
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.91 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 435.99 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -7.91 Air Force: 4.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -8.5 Air Force: 5.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 300.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 33
Utah State 20

Projected Total Points: 53

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Utah State	49	Air Force	30	Air Force -4	Utah State	51.5	Over
2023	09/15	Air Force	39	Utah State	21	Air Force -9	Air Force	45.5	Over
2022	10/08	Utah State	34	Air Force	27	Air Force -11.5	Utah State	54.0	Over
2021	09/18	Air Force	45	Utah State	49	Air Force -9	Utah State	54.0	Over
2020	12/03	Utah State	7	Air Force	35	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	51.0	Under
2019	10/26	Air Force	31	Utah State	7	Air Force -4	Air Force	58.5	Under
2018	09/22	Utah State	42	Air Force	32	Utah State -10	Push	59.5	Over
2017	11/25	Air Force	38	Utah State	35	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	57.5	Over
2016	09/24	Utah State	20	Air Force	27	Air Force -3	Air Force	53.5	Under
2015	11/14	Air Force	35	Utah State	28	Utah State -1.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2014	10/11	Utah State	34	Air Force	16	Utah State -7.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/07	Air Force	20	Utah State	52	Utah State -8	Utah State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	6	6	7 Overs
Utah State	6	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 8	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4

(#107) USU at (#69) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#107	#69
SP+SP+	#97	#45
Perf GradeGrade	#113	#9
OffenseOff	#67	#7
DefenseDef	#131	#19
Spec TeamsST	#91	#38
TalentTal	#104	#130
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Utah State Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#19
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#72	#34
SP+SP+	#49	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#27	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#129	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#131
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#34	#103
SP+SP+	#76	#129
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#64	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Air Force -9.0 (45.5)
Air Force won vs Utah State this year (39-21)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Air Force last year (49-30)
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cooper Legas	138	213	65%	1815	19	8	8.5
McCae Hillstead	94	158	60%	1062	11	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth	120	805	6	6.7	65
Rahsul Faison	118	736	5	6.2	60
Robert Briggs	80	420	2	5.3	58
Levi Williams	45	209	3	4.6	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	71	1080	15	15.2	71
Terrell Vaughn	90	937	11	10.4	76
Micah Davis	36	628	6	17.4	76
Colby Bowman (Tr)	11	247	2	22.5	63

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Tafisi	142	9	0	2	1
Ike Larsen	102	5	0	1	6
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Devin Dye	82	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Paul Fitzgerald	46	9	7	1	1
Blaine Spires	26	8	5	10	1
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Hale Motu'apuaka	33	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Devin Dye	82	2	7
Jordan Drew	27	0	6
Avante Dickerson	17	0	6

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4