Utah State at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Friday, September 15th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -9 (45.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 39 - Utah State: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 33 - 35 (28 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Air Force -13   (SP+ AFA -14)
Projected Score: USU: 20 - AFA: 33 (52)
AFA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USU Travel: 413 miles
Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (38 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Utah State at Iowa+24.043.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 9/9 Utah State vs Idaho State-24.061.0W 78 - 28OY
Fri 9/15 Utah State at Air Force+9.045.5L 21 - 39ON
Sat 9/23 Utah State vs James Madison+5.553.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 9/30 Utah State at UConn-4.050.5W 34 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Utah State vs Colorado State+3.062.0W 44 - 24OY
Fri 10/13 Utah State vs Fresno State+5.556.0L 32 - 37OY
Sat 10/21 Utah State at San José State+4.065.0L 21 - 42UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Utah State at San Diego State-2.056.5W 32 - 24UY
Sat 11/11 Utah State vs Nevada-14.554.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 11/18 Utah State vs Boise State+5.562.5L 10 - 45UN
Fri 11/24 Utah State at New Mexico-4.558.5W 44 - 41ON
Sat 12/23 Utah State vs Georgia State-2.058.0L 22 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.051.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.536.5W 13 - 3UN
Fri 9/15 Air Force vs Utah State-9.045.5W 39 - 21OY
Fri 9/22 Air Force at San José State-6.045.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Air Force vs San Diego State-10.543.5W 49 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Air Force vs Wyoming-12.542.0W 34 - 27ON
Sat 10/21 Air Force at Navy-11.034.0W 17 - 6UN
Sat 10/28 Air Force at Colorado State-14.547.0W 30 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Air Force vs Army-18.532.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 11/11 Air Force at Hawai'i-22.547.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Air Force vs UNLV-2.546.5L 27 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Air Force at Boise State+6.544.5L 19 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#50 (.22)42% (67)33.245% (52)3.36 (19)18442% (68)2543.27 (109)#98 (.23)45% (114)34.749% (124)43% (82)4.41 (119)70.81.91.5
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)27.846% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)18.237% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1333.227.742.2%3.271.9224391842544.848%50%45%42%20%.22
AFA Defense1318.219.239.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1334.733.845.4%4.411.5 - - - - - 54%45%49%43%18%.23
AFA Offense1327.838.245.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1326:5621.736%56%7.570.81.91.55.51.8329.2
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1348% (89)45% (52)38.2184.54.818 (77).21 (33)3.36 (19)77% (40)12% (104)1 (68)
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1354% (113)49% (124) - - - - .18 (93)3.1 (68)83% (118)11% (39)0.93 (34)
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1350% (56)42% (68)20.733.5254.27.612.335 (7)19 (131).34 (48)1.8 (19)33% (87)33% (53).42 (40)8% (122)2.2 (30)
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1345% (22)43% (82) - - - - - - 10 (67).31 (95)1.6 (71)30% (108)31% (77).31 (70)7% (23)1.9 (32)
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.91 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -7.91   Air Force: 4.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -8.5   Air Force: 5.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.7
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.8

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 33
Utah State 20


Total Points: 52

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Utah State49Air Force30Utah StateAir Force -4Utah State51.5Over
202309/15Air Force39Utah State21Air ForceAir Force -9Air Force45.5Over
202210/08Utah State34Air Force27Utah StateAir Force -11.5Utah State54.0Over
202109/18Air Force45Utah State49Utah StateAir Force -9Utah State54.0Over
202012/03Utah State7Air Force35Air ForceAir Force -13.5Air Force51.0Under
201910/26Air Force31Utah State7Air ForceAir Force -4Air Force58.5Under
201809/22Utah State42Air Force32Utah StateUtah State -10Push59.5Over
201711/25Air Force38Utah State35Air ForceAir Force -2.5Air Force57.5Over
201609/24Utah State20Air Force27Air ForceAir Force -3Air Force53.5Under
201511/14Air Force35Utah State28Air ForceUtah State -1.5Air Force50.5Over
201410/11Utah State34Air Force16Utah StateUtah State -7.5Utah State0
201309/07Air Force20Utah State52Utah StateUtah State -8Utah State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force667 Overs
Utah State653 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 47 - 44 - 13 - 3
Road Teams4 - 84 - 73 - 31 - 4

(#107) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -7.91 #107
Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50


Utah State has won 1 straight
Utah State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Utah State Highlights
Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State has a top Offensive Line (#112)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State Secondary is very good (#94)

Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State has a bad TO Margin (#11)
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
Utah State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#21)
Utah State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAFAUSU
OverallOver#7#94
OffenseOff#7#61
DefenseDef#15#104
Special TeamsST#33#72
PassingPass#59#52
RushingRush#46#19
Run BlockRBLK#1#75
Pass BlockPBLK#58#112
Route RunningWR Rt#36#33
TacklingTkl#7#108
Run DefenseR Def#20#116
Pass Rush DefPRush#25#84
Coverage DefCov#37#65

Rematch from Week 3
Air Force -9.0 (45.5)
Air Force won vs Utah State this year (39-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)
Utah State beat Air Force in 2022 (34-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | AFA
Depth Chart: USU | AFA
Rosters: USU | AFA
(#69) Air Force Info
Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70


Air Force has won 2 straight
Air Force has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 1 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force has a good run defense (#76)
Air Force Defensive Line is very good (#123)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)


  
Utah State's OC Kyle Cefalo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cooper Legas13821365%18151988.5
McCae Hillstead9415860%10621186.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth12080566.765
Rahsul Faison11873656.260
Robert Briggs8042025.358
Levi Williams4520934.629
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Royals7110801515.271
Terrell Vaughn909371110.476
Micah Davis36628617.476
Colby Bowman (Tr)11247222.563

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Joe Cauthen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MJ Tafisi1429021
Ike Larsen1025016
Anthony Switzer858354
Devin Dye822007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Paul Fitzgerald469711
Blaine Spires2685101
Anthony Switzer858354
Hale Motu'apuaka336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Dye822007
Jordan Drew270006
Avante Dickerson170006

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zachary Larrier406760%7897211.8
John Busha91947%152018.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Michel200935114.754
Zachary Larrier14260564.341
John Lee Eldridge III8459967.165
Dylan Carson6849327.368
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Roznos12374331.284
Cade Harris5179135.865
Brandon Engel10178017.839
Dane Kinamon5126225.294

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Mock935221
Johnathan Youngblood854031
Trey Taylor745104
Jayden Goodwin732105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bo Richter45201081
PJ Ramsey3512852
Peyton Zdroik327520
Alec Mock935221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy352005
Jayden Goodwin732105
Trey Taylor745104