San Diego State at Hawai'i - 2023 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, October 14th 2023 (11:00 PM EDT)
San Diego State -6 (51.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
San Diego State 41 - Hawai'i: 34  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SDSU coming off BYE
HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: San Diego State -3.5  (SP+ SDSU -6)

Projected Score: SDSU: 27 - HAW: 24 (51)
SDSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
SDSU Travel: 2609 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (4 - 13)
Avg Score : 21 - 32 (23 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 8.6 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 San Diego State vs Ohio-2.048.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/2 San Diego State vs Idaho State-34.551.0W 36 - 28ON
Sat 9/9 San Diego State vs UCLA+13.049.0L 10 - 35UN
Sat 9/16 San Diego State at Oregon State+24.548.5L 9 - 26UY
Fri 9/22 San Diego State vs Boise State+6.546.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 San Diego State at Air Force+10.543.5L 10 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.051.5W 41 - 34OY
Sat 10/21 San Diego State vs Nevada-11.048.5L 0 - 6UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 San Diego State vs Utah State+2.056.5L 24 - 32UN
Sat 11/11 San Diego State at Colorado State+3.546.5L 19 - 22UY
Sat 11/18 San Diego State at San José State+16.548.5L 13 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 San Diego State vs Fresno State+5.547.0W 33 - 18OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Hawai'i at Vanderbilt+17.054.5L 28 - 35OY
Fri 9/1 Hawai'i vs Stanford+2.054.0L 24 - 37ON
Sat 9/9 Hawai'i vs UAlbany-10.558.5W 31 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Hawai'i at Oregon+38.567.5L 10 - 55UN
Sat 9/23 Hawai'i vs New Mexico State-4.054.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/30 Hawai'i at UNLV+10.558.5L 20 - 44ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.051.5L 34 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 Hawai'i at New Mexico-1.560.0L 21 - 42ON
Sat 10/28 Hawai'i vs San José State+10.557.0L 0 - 35UN
Sat 11/4 Hawai'i at Nevada+3.550.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/11 Hawai'i vs Air Force+22.547.5W 27 - 13UY
Sat 11/18 Hawai'i at Wyoming+13.545.5L 9 - 42ON
Sat 11/25 Hawai'i vs Colorado State+6.054.0W 27 - 24UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#96 (.14)42% (70)20.543% (69)3.08 (77)15441% (77)1723.2 (116)#108 (.24)47% (127)26.853% (130)43% (86)3.38 (30)441.41.5
HAW#94 (.14)41% (82)21.440% (98)2.79 (119)7642% (64)2763.22 (111)#102 (.24)43% (84)32.244% (77)43% (88)4.14 (101)56.41.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1220.518.441.9%3.21.4173261541724.156%43%43%41%15%.14
HAW Defense1332.226.743.2%4.141.1 - - - - - 57%43%44%43%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1226.83146.9%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%52%53%43%16%.24
HAW Offense1321.423.341%3.221.819352762763.134%65%40%42%18%.14

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1232:4717.235%57%4.9441.41.54.11.5131.6
Hawai'i1329:3919.337%52%6.256.41.81.15.21.7029.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1256% (22)43% (69)37.8154.34.116 (89).12 (85)3.08 (77)74% (66)10% (67)0.9 (111)
HAW Defense1357% (127)44% (77) - - - - .17 (87)3.16 (83)75% (82)10% (66)1.06 (94)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1246% (22)53% (130) - - - - .27 (126)3.44 (123)83% (114)8% (118)0.93 (36)
HAW Offense1334% (133)40% (98)24.976.13.16 (133).09 (103)2.79 (119)62% (126)11% (90)1 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1243% (112)41% (77)16.826.6171.86.510.210 (120)10 (56).21 (91)1.4 (125)32% (69)27% (100).1 (128)5% (28)1.6 (133)
HAW Defense1343% (7)43% (88) - - - - - - 7 (111).38 (114)1.7 (110)31% (89)31% (80).4 (107)6% (58)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1252% (110)43% (86) - - - - - - 12 (37).27 (68)1.5 (33)28% (128)32% (100).34 (80)8% (18)2 (40)
HAW Offense1365% (2)42% (64)25.941.3276.46.710.727 (25)15 (116).2 (94)1.5 (104)34% (96)32% (62).33 (69)7% (100)2 (84)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49  #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44  #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98  #86
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5  #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2  #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49   Hawai'i: -12.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5   Hawai'i: -16.7




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -12.32  #127
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 12.57  #103
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 14.83  #118
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Hawai'i's 2023 Expected Record: 4.40 - 8.60
Hawai'i's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7  #123
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #111
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7  #121

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.4
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 27
Hawai'i 24


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 30
San Diego State 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 26
San Diego State 24

Total Points: 50
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.3
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

Hawai'i's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Hawai'i38San Diego State6San Diego State -6.5Hawai'i48.5Under
202410/05San Diego State27Hawai'i24San Diego State -1.5San Diego State47.5Over
202310/14Hawai'i34San Diego State41San Diego State -6San Diego State51.5Over
202210/08San Diego State16Hawai'i14San Diego State -23.5Hawai'i48.5Under
202111/06Hawai'i10San Diego State17San Diego State -7NA45.0Under
202011/14San Diego State34Hawai'i10San Diego State -9.5San Diego State51.0Under
201911/23Hawai'i14San Diego State11Hawai'i -1Hawai'i47.0Under
201811/24San Diego State30Hawai'i31San Diego State -18Hawai'i54.0Over
201710/28Hawai'i7San Diego State28San Diego State -8San Diego State54.0Under
201611/05San Diego State55Hawai'i0San Diego State -19.5San Diego State50.5Over
201510/10Hawai'i14San Diego State28San Diego State -2San Diego State47.0Under
201410/18San Diego State20Hawai'i10San Diego State -10.5Hawai'i0
201311/16Hawai'i21San Diego State28San Diego State -5San Diego State0
201210/06San Diego State52Hawai'i14
200512/03Hawai'i49San Diego State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i454 Overs
San Diego State1177 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 65 - 74 - 31 - 4
Road Teams6 - 97 - 54 - 13 - 4

(#104) SDSU at (#127) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUHAW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #104 #127
SP+SP+ #107 #123
Perf GradeGrade #126 #110
OffenseOff #104 #76
DefenseDef #133 #121
Spec TeamsST #52 #118
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #69 #75
San Diego State on Offense
CategoryCat
SDSU OffHAW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #121
SuccessSuc #70 #84
ExplosiveExp #130 #97
PPAPPA #96 #102
PowerPwr #106 #118
SP+SP+ #110 #121
Pts POPPO #116 #101
HavocHav #49 #63
San Diego State Run Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #81 #83
Run SuccessRSuc #69 #77
Run ExplRExp #111 #94
PPAExp #85 #87
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #83
Stuff RateStuff #50 #60
TackleTak -  #127
San Diego State Pass Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #111 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #88
Pass ExplPExl #125 #110
PPAExp #91 #114
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #31 #109
F7 HavocF7 #67 #66
DB HavocDB #28 #58
Hawai'i on Offense
CategoryCatHAW OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #76 #133
SuccessSuc #82 #127
ExplosiveExp #45 #22
PPAPPA #94 #108
PowerPwr #103 #86
SP+SP+ #111 #91
Pts POPPO #111 #30
HavocHav #99 #79
Hawai'i Run Game
CategoryCat
HAW OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #108 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #130
Run ExplRExp #67 #36
PPAExp #103 #126
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #119 #123
Stuff RateStuff #121 #121
TackleTak -  #133
Hawai'i Pass Game
CategoryCatHAW OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #37 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #86
Pass ExplPExl #104 #33
PPAExp #94 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #30 #134
F7 HavocF7 #90 #118
DB HavocDB #100 #18
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 81° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 7
San Diego State 6.0 (51.5)
San Diego State won at Hawai'i this year (41-34)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Hawai'i last year (27-24)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (41-34)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (16-14)

  
SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Mayden19931463%20311096.5
Tobin O'Dell1250%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Mayden12852854.170
Jaylon Armstead10344884.348
Kenan Christon9637803.939
Cam Davis5222504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Redman38408310.729
Mekhi Shaw27375213.969
Brionne Penny25290111.636
Baylin Brooks15261117.437

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655
Cody Moon580092
Cedarious Barfield512003
Marcus Ratcliffe512001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655
Tupu Alualu274340
Daniel Okpoko255253
Cooper McDonald395282
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Tumblin3500012
Dezjhon Malone462107
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655

HAW's OC Roman Sapolu (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Schager33252563%354226146.7
Jake Farrell3838%14011.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims6325514.022
Jordan Johnson3419805.828
David Cordero3213804.336
Tylan Hines279303.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Steven McBride (Tr)631024916.365
Pofele Ashlock83832910.053
Koali Nishigaya3932218.329
Alex Perry24277311.538

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Jacob Yoro (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma886001
Isaiah Tufaga796310
Jalen Smith659211
Meki Pei433111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Evaimalo236411
Elijah Robinson (Tr)243301
Andrew Choi368300
Isaiah Tufaga796310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Virdel Edwards371009
Jojo Forest121008
Caleb Brown171007