San Diego State at Hawai'i - 2023 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (11:00 PM EDT)
San Diego State -6 (51.5) (0) Open: 0.0
San Diego State 41 - Hawai'i: 34 (Mountain West)

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU coming off BYE
HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: San Diego State -3.5 (SP+ SDSU -6)
Projected Score: SDSU: 26 - HAW: 22 (48)
SDSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
SDSU Travel: 2609 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (4 - 13)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 8.6 (#112)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Hawai'i at Vanderbilt	+17.0	54.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Fri 9/1	Hawai'i vs Stanford	+2.0	54.0	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	Hawai'i vs UAlbany	-10.5	58.5	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Hawai'i at Oregon	+38.5	67.5	L 10 - 55	U	N
Sat 9/23	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-4.0	54.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Hawai'i at UNLV	+10.5	58.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Hawai'i vs San Diego State	+6.0	51.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Hawai'i at New Mexico	-1.5	60.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/28	Hawai'i vs San José State	+10.5	57.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/4	Hawai'i at Nevada	+3.5	50.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Hawai'i vs Air Force	+22.5	47.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Hawai'i at Wyoming	+13.5	45.5	L 9 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Hawai'i vs Colorado State	+6.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	.14	39%	26.4	38%	2.81	143	41%	181	2.92	.06	38%	15.4	36%	40%	3.15	59.4	1.8	1.9
HAW	.08	40%	29	49%	3.4	137	34%	206	3.03	.28	46%	24.1	48%	45%	4.24	50.2	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HAW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	18.2	38.8%	2.92	1.8	16	324	143	181	4	53%	46%	38%	41%	20%	.14
HAW Defense	13	24.1	17	46%	4.24	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	45%	12%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	18.3	37.5%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	36%	40%	19%	.06
HAW Offense	13	29	31	39.8%	3.03	1.5	19	343	137	206	4.4	43%	56%	49%	34%	16%	.08

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	13	30:56	15.8	29%	75%	7.4	59.4	1.8	1.9	6.5	2.8	4	30.3
Hawai'i	13	28:16	18.8	35%	53%	5.6	50.2	1.5	0.9	4.2	1.4	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	13	53%	38%	36.2	143.2	4	11	.08	2.81	58%	14%	1.01
HAW Defense	13	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.51	73%	7%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	13	44%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.84	62%	13%	0.9
HAW Offense	13	43%	49%	31.2	137.2	4.4	16	.14	3.4	78%	9%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	13	46%	41%	14.2	26.3	180.6	6.9	12.7	15	14	.31	1.6	34%	31%	.37	6%	2.2
HAW Defense	13	46%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.4	1.6	30%	39%	.44	5%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.19	1.5	34%	28%	.18	6%	1.9
HAW Offense	13	56%	34%	20.1	37.7	205.5	5.5	10.2	13	12	.06	1.5	32%	22%	.04	7%	2.1

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 440.15 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49 Hawai'i: -12.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5 Hawai'i: -16.7

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -12.32 #127
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 14.83 #118
2023 Talent Rating: 407.77 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Hawai'i's 2023 Expected Record: 4.40 - 8.60
Hawai'i's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #123
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #121

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 26
Hawai'i 22

Projected Total Points: 48

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Hawai'i	38	San Diego State	6	San Diego State -6.5	Hawai'i	48.5	Under
2024	10/05	San Diego State	27	Hawai'i	24	San Diego State -1.5	San Diego State	47.5	Over
2023	10/14	Hawai'i	34	San Diego State	41	San Diego State -6	San Diego State	51.5	Over
2022	10/08	San Diego State	16	Hawai'i	14	San Diego State -23.5	Hawai'i	48.5	Under
2021	11/06	Hawai'i	10	San Diego State	17	San Diego State -7	NA	45.0	Under
2020	11/14	San Diego State	34	Hawai'i	10	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	51.0	Under
2019	11/23	Hawai'i	14	San Diego State	11	Hawai'i -1	Hawai'i	47.0	Under
2018	11/24	San Diego State	30	Hawai'i	31	San Diego State -18	Hawai'i	54.0	Over
2017	10/28	Hawai'i	7	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -8	San Diego State	54.0	Under
2016	11/05	San Diego State	55	Hawai'i	0	San Diego State -19.5	San Diego State	50.5	Over
2015	10/10	Hawai'i	14	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -2	San Diego State	47.0	Under
2014	10/18	San Diego State	20	Hawai'i	10	San Diego State -10.5	Hawai'i	0
2013	11/16	Hawai'i	21	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -5	San Diego State	0
2012	10/06	San Diego State	52	Hawai'i	14
2005	12/03	Hawai'i	49	San Diego State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	4	5	4 Overs
San Diego State	11	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	5 - 7	4 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 9	7 - 5	4 - 1	3 - 4

(#104) SDSU at (#127) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	HAW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#104	#127
SP+SP+	#107	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#110
OffenseOff	#104	#76
DefenseDef	#133	#121
Spec TeamsST	#52	#118
TalentTal	#103	#110
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

San Diego State Injury Report

Hawai'i Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	HAW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#106	#118
SP+SP+	#110	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#81	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#31	#109
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Hawai'i on Offense


CategoryCat	HAW Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#133
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#103	#86
SP+SP+	#111	#91
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Hawai'i Run Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#108	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#133

Hawai'i Pass Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#37	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#30	#134
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
San Diego State 6.0 (51.5)
San Diego State won at Hawai'i this year (41-34)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat San Diego State last year (38-6)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2024 (27-24)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (41-34)

SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Mayden	199	314	63%	2031	10	9	6.5
Tobin O'Dell	1	2	50%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Mayden	128	528	5	4.1	70
Jaylon Armstead	103	448	8	4.3	48
Kenan Christon	96	378	0	3.9	39
Cam Davis	52	225	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Redman	38	408	3	10.7	29
Mekhi Shaw	27	375	2	13.9	69
Brionne Penny	25	290	1	11.6	36
Baylin Brooks	15	261	1	17.4	37

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Cody Moon	58	0	0	9	2
Cedarious Barfield	51	2	0	0	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	51	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Tupu Alualu	27	4	3	4	0
Daniel Okpoko	25	5	2	5	3
Cooper McDonald	39	5	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Tumblin	35	0	0	0	12
Dezjhon Malone	46	2	1	0	7
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5

HAW's OC Roman Sapolu (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	332	525	63%	3542	26	14	6.7
Jake Farrell	3	8	38%	14	0	1	1.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	63	255	1	4.0	22
Jordan Johnson	34	198	0	5.8	28
David Cordero	32	138	0	4.3	36
Tylan Hines	27	93	0	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Steven McBride (Tr)	63	1024	9	16.3	65
Pofele Ashlock	83	832	9	10.0	53
Koali Nishigaya	39	322	1	8.3	29
Alex Perry	24	277	3	11.5	38

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Jacob Yoro (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Peter Manuma	88	6	0	0	1
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0
Jalen Smith	65	9	2	1	1
Meki Pei	43	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Evaimalo	23	6	4	1	1
Elijah Robinson (Tr)	24	3	3	0	1
Andrew Choi	36	8	3	0	0
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Virdel Edwards	37	1	9
Jojo Forest	12	1	8
Caleb Brown	17	1	7