San Diego State at Colorado State - 2023 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Colorado State -3.5 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Colorado State 22 - San Diego State: 19 (Mountain West)

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CSU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -5 (SP+ CSU -1)
Projected Score: SDSU: 20 - CSU: 25 (45)
CSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
SDSU Travel: 855 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Colorado State vs Washington State	+9.5	54.0	L 24 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Colorado State at Colorado	+23.0	63.0	L 35 - 43	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Colorado State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	50.0	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Colorado State vs Utah Tech	-19
Sat 10/7	Colorado State at Utah State	-3.0	62.0	L 24 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/14	Colorado State vs Boise State	+7.5	60.0	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Colorado State at UNLV	+6.5	60.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/3	Colorado State at Wyoming	+6.0	41.0	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Colorado State vs San Diego State	-3.5	46.5	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/18	Colorado State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/25	Colorado State at Hawai'i	-6.0	54.0	L 24 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	.14	39%	26.4	38%	2.81	143	41%	181	2.92	.06	38%	15.4	36%	40%	3.15	59.4	1.8	1.9
CSU	.05	34%	18.5	36%	2.91	89	32%	197	1.96	.16	43%	30.8	44%	43%	4.24	60.4	1.6	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	18.2	38.8%	2.92	1.8	16	324	143	181	4	53%	46%	38%	41%	20%	.14
CSU Defense	12	30.8	27.1	43.1%	4.24	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	44%	43%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	18.3	37.5%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	36%	40%	19%	.06
CSU Offense	12	18.5	19.9	33.7%	1.96	1.6	15	286	89	197	2.8	46%	54%	36%	32%	24%	.05

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	13	30:56	15.8	29%	75%	7.4	59.4	1.8	1.9	6.5	2.8	4	30.3
Colorado State	12	29:28	14.7	23%	39%	6.9	60.4	1.6	1.7	5.4	1.8	2	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	13	53%	38%	36.2	143.2	4	11	.08	2.81	58%	14%	1.01
CSU Defense	12	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.1	77%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	13	44%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.84	62%	13%	0.9
CSU Offense	12	46%	36%	32.1	89	2.8	4	.04	2.91	61%	18%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	13	46%	41%	14.2	26.3	180.6	6.9	12.7	15	14	.31	1.6	34%	31%	.37	6%	2.2
CSU Defense	12	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.22	1.4	31%	30%	.25	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.19	1.5	34%	28%	.18	6%	1.9
CSU Offense	12	54%	32%	16.9	26.8	196.8	7.3	11.6	12	11	.08	1.8	39%	23%	.21	6%	2.4

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 440.15 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49 Colorado State: -3.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5 Colorado State: -9.1

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.77 #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
2023 Talent Rating: 413.96 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 25
San Diego State 20

Projected Total Points: 45

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/03	San Diego State	45	Colorado State	24	San Diego State -4.5	San Diego State	40.5	Over
2023	11/11	Colorado State	22	San Diego State	19	Colorado State -3.5	San Diego State	46.5	Under
2020	12/05	San Diego State	29	Colorado State	17	San Diego State -7.5	San Diego State	45.0	Over
2019	10/05	Colorado State	10	San Diego State	24	San Diego State -7.5	San Diego State	49.0	Under
2016	11/26	San Diego State	31	Colorado State	63	San Diego State -12.5	Colorado State	53.5	Over
2015	10/31	Colorado State	17	San Diego State	41	San Diego State -2	San Diego State	52.0	Over
2012	10/13	San Diego State	38	Colorado State	14
2011	11/12	Colorado State	15	San Diego State	18
2010	11/06	San Diego State	24	Colorado State	19
2009	10/24	Colorado State	28	San Diego State	42
2008	10/25	San Diego State	34	Colorado State	38
2007	10/06	Colorado State	20	San Diego State	24
2006	12/02	San Diego State	17	Colorado State	6
2005	11/12	Colorado State	10	San Diego State	30
2004	10/16	San Diego State	17	Colorado State	21
2003	11/15	Colorado State	21	San Diego State	6
2001	09/22	Colorado State	7	San Diego State	14
2000	10/27	San Diego State	22	Colorado State	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	6	1	4 Overs
San Diego State	12	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 11	2 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	11 - 7	4 - 2	2 - 0	2 - 2

(#104) SDSU at (#83) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#104	#83
SP+SP+	#107	#99
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#84
OffenseOff	#104	#84
DefenseDef	#133	#78
Spec TeamsST	#52	#114
TalentTal	#103	#108
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

San Diego State Injury Report

Colorado State Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#106	#62
SP+SP+	#110	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#81	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#72
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#31	#23
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Colorado State on Offense


CategoryCat	CSU Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#133
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#78	#86
SP+SP+	#93	#91
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Colorado State Run Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#129	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#133

Colorado State Pass Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#101	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#134
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Colorado State -3.5 (46.5)
Colorado State won vs San Diego State this year (22-19)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Colorado State last year (45-24)
Colorado State beat San Diego State in 2023 (22-19)

SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Mayden	199	314	63%	2031	10	9	6.5
Tobin O'Dell	1	2	50%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Mayden	128	528	5	4.1	70
Jaylon Armstead	103	448	8	4.3	48
Kenan Christon	96	378	0	3.9	39
Cam Davis	52	225	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Redman	38	408	3	10.7	29
Mekhi Shaw	27	375	2	13.9	69
Brionne Penny	25	290	1	11.6	36
Baylin Brooks	15	261	1	17.4	37

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Cody Moon	58	0	0	9	2
Cedarious Barfield	51	2	0	0	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	51	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Tupu Alualu	27	4	3	4	0
Daniel Okpoko	25	5	2	5	3
Cooper McDonald	39	5	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Tumblin	35	0	0	0	12
Dezjhon Malone	46	2	1	0	7
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	292	470	62%	3460	22	16	7.4
Clay Millen	15	24	63%	110	0	1	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vann Schield	90	389	3	4.3	52
Justin Marshall	57	311	2	5.5	21
Avery Morrow	81	262	2	3.2	13
Kobe Johnson	44	128	1	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Horton	96	1136	8	11.8	76
Dallin Holker (Tr)	64	767	6	12.0	42
Justus Ross-Simmons	45	724	3	16.1	75
Louis Brown	47	481	5	10.2	46

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3
Henry Blackburn	75	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Kamara	55	16	12	10	1
Marshon Oxley	26	6	4	1	0
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Tony Pierce Jr.	31	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Dom Jones	32	0	0	0	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3