San Diego State at Colorado State - 2023 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Colorado State -3.5 (46.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Colorado State 22 - San Diego State: 19  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CSU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -5  (SP+ CSU -1)

Projected Score: SDSU: 22 - CSU: 27 (50)
CSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
SDSU Travel: 855 miles, 1 hrs behind
Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (27 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 San Diego State vs Ohio-2.048.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/2 San Diego State vs Idaho State-34.551.0W 36 - 28ON
Sat 9/9 San Diego State vs UCLA+13.049.0L 10 - 35UN
Sat 9/16 San Diego State at Oregon State+24.548.5L 9 - 26UY
Fri 9/22 San Diego State vs Boise State+6.546.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 San Diego State at Air Force+10.543.5L 10 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.051.5W 41 - 34OY
Sat 10/21 San Diego State vs Nevada-11.048.5L 0 - 6UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 San Diego State vs Utah State+2.056.5L 24 - 32UN
Sat 11/11 San Diego State at Colorado State+3.546.5L 19 - 22UY
Sat 11/18 San Diego State at San José State+16.548.5L 13 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 San Diego State vs Fresno State+5.547.0W 33 - 18OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Colorado State vs Washington State+9.554.0L 24 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16 Colorado State at Colorado+23.063.0L 35 - 43OY
Sat 9/23 Colorado State at Middle Tennessee+3.550.0W 31 - 23OY
Sat 9/30 Colorado State vs Utah Tech-19
Sat 10/7 Colorado State at Utah State-3.062.0L 24 - 44ON
Sat 10/14 Colorado State vs Boise State+7.560.0W 31 - 30OY
Sat 10/21 Colorado State at UNLV+6.560.0L 23 - 25UY
Sat 10/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+14.547.0L 13 - 30UN
Fri 11/3 Colorado State at Wyoming+6.041.0L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Colorado State vs San Diego State-3.546.5W 22 - 19UN
Sat 11/18 Colorado State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 30 - 20ON
Sat 11/25 Colorado State at Hawai'i-6.054.0L 24 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#96 (.14)42% (70)20.543% (69)3.08 (77)15441% (77)1723.2 (116)#108 (.24)47% (127)26.853% (130)43% (86)3.38 (30)441.41.5
CSU#81 (.17)42% (74)26.139% (118)2.7 (124)9345% (38)3073.66 (86)#65 (.18)43% (80)29.642% (61)44% (107)3.4 (31)69.82.11.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1220.518.441.9%3.21.4173261541724.156%43%43%41%15%.14
CSU Defense1229.628.242.9%3.41.6 - - - - - 52%47%42%44%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1226.83146.9%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%52%53%43%16%.24
CSU Offense1226.126.841.6%3.662.121399933073.439%59%39%45%16%.17

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1232:4717.235%57%4.9441.41.54.11.5131.6
Colorado State1226:3420.641%42%7.669.82.11.67.22.8226.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1256% (22)43% (69)37.8154.34.116 (89).12 (85)3.08 (77)74% (66)10% (67)0.9 (111)
CSU Defense1252% (102)42% (61) - - - - .11 (47)3.05 (55)75% (82)12% (24)1.04 (90)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1246% (22)53% (130) - - - - .27 (126)3.44 (123)83% (114)8% (118)0.93 (36)
CSU Offense1239% (126)39% (118)27.792.83.410 (124)-.02 (130)2.7 (124)69% (102)7% (15)0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1243% (112)41% (77)16.826.6171.86.510.210 (120)10 (56).21 (91)1.4 (125)32% (69)27% (100).1 (128)5% (28)1.6 (133)
CSU Defense1247% (31)44% (107) - - - - - - 9 (87).29 (87)1.4 (10)32% (69)30% (69).3 (60)4% (126)2.1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1252% (110)43% (86) - - - - - - 12 (37).27 (68)1.5 (33)28% (128)32% (100).34 (80)8% (18)2 (40)
CSU Offense1259% (9)45% (38)25.941.8306.57.311.824 (41)18 (128).35 (43)1.5 (100)33% (86)29% (81).31 (74)8% (124)2 (105)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49  #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44  #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98  #86
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5  #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2  #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49   Colorado State: -3.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5   Colorado State: -9.1




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.77  #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50  #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05  #62
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1  #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.4
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Colorado State 27
San Diego State 22


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Colorado State 29
San Diego State 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Colorado State 28
San Diego State 24

Total Points: 52
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/03San Diego State45Colorado State24San Diego State -4.5San Diego State40.5Over
202311/11Colorado State22San Diego State19Colorado State -3.5San Diego State46.5Under
202012/05San Diego State29Colorado State17San Diego State -7.5San Diego State45.0Over
201910/05Colorado State10San Diego State24San Diego State -7.5San Diego State49.0Under
201611/26San Diego State31Colorado State63San Diego State -12.5Colorado State53.5Over
201510/31Colorado State17San Diego State41San Diego State -2San Diego State52.0Over
201210/13San Diego State38Colorado State14
201111/12Colorado State15San Diego State18
201011/06San Diego State24Colorado State19
200910/24Colorado State28San Diego State42
200810/25San Diego State34Colorado State38
200710/06Colorado State20San Diego State24
200612/02San Diego State17Colorado State6
200511/12Colorado State10San Diego State30
200410/16San Diego State17Colorado State21
200311/15Colorado State21San Diego State6
200109/22Colorado State7San Diego State14
200010/27San Diego State22Colorado State34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State614 Overs
San Diego State1252 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 112 - 42 - 20 - 2
Road Teams11 - 74 - 22 - 02 - 2

(#104) SDSU at (#83) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUCSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #104 #83
SP+SP+ #107 #99
Perf GradeGrade #126 #84
OffenseOff #104 #84
DefenseDef #133 #78
Spec TeamsST #52 #114
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #69 #75
San Diego State on Offense
CategoryCat
SDSU OffCSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #78
SuccessSuc #70 #80
ExplosiveExp #130 #31
PPAPPA #96 #65
PowerPwr #106 #62
SP+SP+ #110 #101
Pts POPPO #116 #31
HavocHav #49 #70
San Diego State Run Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #81 #99
Run SuccessRSuc #69 #61
Run ExplRExp #111 #90
PPAExp #85 #47
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #55
Stuff RateStuff #50 #47
TackleTak -  #58
San Diego State Pass Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #111 #72
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #107
Pass ExplPExl #125 #10
PPAExp #91 #87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #31 #23
F7 HavocF7 #67 #24
DB HavocDB #28 #126
Colorado State on Offense
CategoryCatCSU OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #133
SuccessSuc #74 #127
ExplosiveExp #99 #22
PPAPPA #81 #108
PowerPwr #78 #86
SP+SP+ #93 #91
Pts POPPO #86 #30
HavocHav #65 #79
Colorado State Run Game
CategoryCat
CSU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #129 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #130
Run ExplRExp #133 #36
PPAExp #130 #126
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #123
Stuff RateStuff #114 #121
TackleTak -  #133
Colorado State Pass Game
CategoryCatCSU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #101 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #86
Pass ExplPExl #100 #33
PPAExp #43 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #59 #134
F7 HavocF7 #15 #118
DB HavocDB #124 #18
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 51° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 11
Colorado State -3.5 (46.5)
Colorado State won vs San Diego State this year (22-19)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat San Diego State in 2023 (22-19)

  
SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Mayden19931463%20311096.5
Tobin O'Dell1250%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Mayden12852854.170
Jaylon Armstead10344884.348
Kenan Christon9637803.939
Cam Davis5222504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Redman38408310.729
Mekhi Shaw27375213.969
Brionne Penny25290111.636
Baylin Brooks15261117.437

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655
Cody Moon580092
Cedarious Barfield512003
Marcus Ratcliffe512001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655
Tupu Alualu274340
Daniel Okpoko255253
Cooper McDonald395282
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Tumblin3500012
Dezjhon Malone462107
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi29247062%346022167.4
Clay Millen152463%110014.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Vann Schield9038934.352
Justin Marshall5731125.521
Avery Morrow8126223.213
Kobe Johnson4412812.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tory Horton961136811.876
Dallin Holker (Tr)64767612.042
Justus Ross-Simmons45724316.175
Louis Brown47481510.246

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Howell1141033
Chase Wilson1079413
Justin Sanchez874123
Henry Blackburn757310
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Kamara551612101
Marshon Oxley266410
Chase Wilson1079413
Tony Pierce Jr.315320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Howell1141033
Dom Jones320003
Justin Sanchez874123