UCLA at San Diego State - 2023 Matchup Preview

UCLA Bruins at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
UCLA -13 (49.0) (0) Open: 0.0
UCLA 35 - San Diego State: 10

Bruins (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chip Kelly (30 - 29)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (17 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: UCLA -13.5 (SP+ UCLA -18.5)
Projected Score: UCLA: 30 - SDSU: 17 (47)
UCLA Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
UCLA Travel: 113 miles

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCLA Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCLA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UCLA vs Coastal Carolina	-15.5	66.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	UCLA at San Diego State	-13.0	49.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	UCLA vs North Carolina Central	-35.0	60.5	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCLA at Utah	+3.0	50.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UCLA vs Washington State	-3.0	60.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	UCLA at Oregon State	+3.5	53.5	L 24 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/21	UCLA at Stanford	-17.0	52.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCLA vs Colorado	-14.0	60.0	W 28 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/4	UCLA at Arizona	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCLA vs Arizona State	-14.0	45.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/18	UCLA at USC	+6.0	65.5	W 38 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCLA vs California	-9.5	50.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 12/16	UCLA vs Boise State	-6.5	46.0	W 35 - 22	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	.37	54%	18.2	57%	3.73	238	52%	265	4.5	.23	47%	33.4	48%	46%	4.21	52.5	1.5	1.8
SDSU	.14	39%	26.4	38%	2.81	143	41%	181	2.92	.06	38%	15.4	36%	40%	3.15	59.4	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Offense	13	18.2	16.8	54%	4.5	1.5	26	504	238	265	6	51%	49%	57%	52%	12%	.37
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	6.8	37.5%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	36%	40%	19%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Defense	13	33.4	32.2	46.8%	4.21	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	48%	46%	12%	.23
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	31.2	38.8%	2.92	1.8	16	324	143	181	4	53%	46%	38%	41%	20%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCLA	13	27:21	25.8	51%	58%	6.5	52.5	1.5	1.8	4.3	2.2	1	29.4
San Diego State	13	30:56	15.8	29%	75%	7.4	59.4	1.8	1.9	6.5	2.8	4	30.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Offense	13	51%	57%	39.5	238.4	6	36	.39	3.73	85%	8%	1.04
SDSU Defense	13	44%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.84	62%	13%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Defense	13	44%	48%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.33	84%	8%	0.89
SDSU Offense	13	53%	38%	36.2	143.2	4	11	.08	2.81	58%	14%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Offense	13	49%	52%	22.4	32.2	265.2	8.2	11.9	29	12	.38	1.5	26%	41%	.48	5%	2
SDSU Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.19	1.5	34%	28%	.18	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.3	1.4	29%	31%	.37	5%	2.2
SDSU Offense	13	46%	41%	14.2	26.3	180.6	6.9	12.7	15	14	.31	1.6	34%	31%	.37	6%	2.2

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 6.08 #33
UCLA's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 1.17 #11
2023 Talent Rating: 752.60 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #26
UCLA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
UCLA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #56
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 6.08 San Diego State: -6.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 7.9 San Diego State: -10.5

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -6.495 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 440.15 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

UCLA's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UCLA 30
San Diego State 17

Projected Total Points: 47

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	San Diego State	10	UCLA	35	UCLA -13	UCLA	49.0	Under
2019	09/07	UCLA	14	San Diego State	23	UCLA -7.5	San Diego State	44.5	Under
2009	09/05	UCLA	33	San Diego State	14
2005	09/03	San Diego State	21	UCLA	44
2004	10/02	UCLA	33	San Diego State	10
2003	09/27	UCLA	20	San Diego State	10
2002	09/28	San Diego State	7	UCLA	43

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	1	1	0 Overs
UCLA	6	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#33) UCLA at (#104) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCLA	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#33	#104
SP+SP+	#38	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#26	#126
OffenseOff	#68	#104
DefenseDef	#7	#133
Spec TeamsST	#47	#52
TalentTal	#25	#103
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#69

UCLA Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

UCLA on Offense


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#133
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#103	#86
SP+SP+	#56	#91
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCLA Run Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#36	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#133

UCLA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#115	#134
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	UCLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#7
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#106	#11
SP+SP+	#110	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#81	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#71

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#1
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UCLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
UCLA 13.0 (49.0)
UCLA won at San Diego State this year (35-10)

Previous Matchups
UCLA beat San Diego State in 2023 (35-10)

UCLA's OC Chip Kelly (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	114	213	54%	1610	11	9	7.6
Ethan Garbers	98	146	67%	1136	11	3	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Steele (Tr)	167	846	6	5.1	42
TJ Harden	156	827	8	5.3	62
Collin Schlee (Tr)	42	425	3	10.1	57
Anthony Adkins (Tr)	30	178	1	5.9	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Logan Loya	59	655	5	11.1	49
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)	36	597	4	16.6	62
Moliki Matavao (Tr)	14	283	2	20.2	35
Kyle Ford (Tr)	22	236	1	10.7	37

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kain Medrano	56	7	2	4	2
Oluwafemi Oladejo (Tr)	53	2	0	0	3
Kenny Churchwell III	50	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Laiatu Latu	48	21	12	10	2
Gabriel Murphy	39	17	9	8	2
Grayson Murphy	33	10	6	10	1
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylin Davies	43	1	0	0	6
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kamari Ramsey	40	3	0	2	4

SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Mayden	199	314	63%	2031	10	9	6.5
Tobin O'Dell	1	2	50%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Mayden	128	528	5	4.1	70
Jaylon Armstead	103	448	8	4.3	48
Kenan Christon	96	378	0	3.9	39
Cam Davis	52	225	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Redman	38	408	3	10.7	29
Mekhi Shaw	27	375	2	13.9	69
Brionne Penny	25	290	1	11.6	36
Baylin Brooks	15	261	1	17.4	37

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Cody Moon	58	0	0	9	2
Cedarious Barfield	51	2	0	0	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	51	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Tupu Alualu	27	4	3	4	0
Daniel Okpoko	25	5	2	5	3
Cooper McDonald	39	5	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Tumblin	35	0	0	0	12
Dezjhon Malone	46	2	1	0	7
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5