San Diego State at Oregon State - 2023 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -24.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oregon State 26 - San Diego State: 9

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon State -24.5 (SP+ ORST -25)
Projected Score: SDSU: 14 - ORST: 38 (53)
ORST Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
SDSU Travel: 878 miles

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	.14	39%	21.3	38%	2.81	143	41%	181	2.92	.06	38%	29.6	36%	40%	3.15	59.4	1.8	1.9
ORST	.25	48%	24.3	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	29.9	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	13	21.3	20.3	38.8%	2.92	1.8	16	324	143	181	4	53%	46%	38%	41%	20%	.14
ORST Defense	13	29.9	30.1	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	13	29.6	35.8	37.5%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	36%	40%	19%	.06
ORST Offense	13	24.3	29.7	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	13	30:56	15.8	29%	75%	7.4	59.4	1.8	1.9	6.5	2.8	4	30.3
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	13	53%	38%	36.2	143.2	4	11	.08	2.81	58%	14%	1.01
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	13	44%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.84	62%	13%	0.9
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	13	46%	41%	14.2	26.3	180.6	6.9	12.7	15	14	.31	1.6	34%	31%	.37	6%	2.2
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.19	1.5	34%	28%	.18	6%	1.9
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 600.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49 Oregon State: 15.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5 Oregon State: 14.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 15.53 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 644
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 38
San Diego State 14

Projected Total Points: 53

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	San Diego State	0	Oregon State	21	Oregon State	Oregon State -5.5	Oregon State	54.5	Under
2023	09/16	Oregon State	26	San Diego State	9	Oregon State	Oregon State -24.5	San Diego State	48.5	Under
2014	09/20	Oregon State	28	San Diego State	7	Oregon State	Oregon State -8.5	Oregon State	0
2013	09/21	San Diego State	30	Oregon State	34	Oregon State	Oregon State -8	San Diego State	0
2000	09/22	Oregon State	35	San Diego State	3	Oregon State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	5	2	0 Overs
San Diego State	0	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1

(#104) San Diego State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.49 #104
Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91
Talent Rating: 600.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00

Team Profile

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San Diego State Ratings Matchup Oregon State

Power #104

#17

Off #106

#10

Def #86

#39

Talent #73

#79

SP+ #107

#17

SP+ Off #110

#22

SP+ Def #91

#32

Rematch from Week 3
Oregon State -24.5 (48.5)
Oregon State won vs San Diego State this year (26-9)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat San Diego State last year (21-0)
Oregon State beat San Diego State in 2023 (26-9)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 79° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | ORST
Depth Chart: SDSU | ORST
Rosters: SDSU | ORST

(#17) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.53 #17
Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32
Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30

Team Profile

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San Diego State's OC Ryan Lindley

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raphael Williams (Tr)	1	-3	0	-3.0	0
Josh Nicholson	1	-10	0	-10.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raphael Williams (Tr)	36	419	6	11.6	35
Mark Redman	23	251	3	10.9	32
Mekhi Shaw	15	160	2	10.7	30
Cameron Harpole	1	17	0	17.0	17

View San Diego State's Full Roster

San Diego State's DC Kurt Mattix

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger	82	2	0	5
Marcus Ratcliffe	48	4	1	0
J.D. Coffey III	42	0	0	1
Zyrus Fiaseu	34	3	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cooper McDonald	25	5	3	2	1
Noah Avinger	82	2	0	0	5
Marcus Ratcliffe	48	4	0	1	0
J.D. Coffey III	42	0	0	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Noah Avinger	82	2	5
Dezjhon Malone	27	2	3
Dallas Branch	23	0	3

Oregon State's OC Brian Lindgren

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Aidan Chiles	96	234	3	2.4	26
Silas Bolden	2	-3	1	-1.5	5
Ben Gulbranson	14	-7	1	-0.5	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Velling	36	411	1	11.4	34
Silas Bolden	23	267	1	11.6	24
Tastean Reddicks	17	222	0	13.1	29
Damien Martinez	17	204	0	12.0	36

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Trent Bray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	94	5	2	2	1
Akili Arnold	59	1	1	1	1
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	94	5	2	2	1
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2
Akili Arnold	59	1	1	1	1
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7
Jaden Robinson	38	2	0	0	3
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2