San Diego State at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -10.5 (43.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 49 - San Diego State: 10  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
SDSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -13.5   (SP+ AFA -16)

Projected Score: SDSU: 17 - AFA: 30 (47)
AFA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
SDSU Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (38 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 San Diego State vs Ohio-2.048.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/2 San Diego State vs Idaho State-34.551.0W 36 - 28ON
Sat 9/9 San Diego State vs UCLA+13.049.0L 10 - 35UN
Sat 9/16 San Diego State at Oregon State+24.548.5L 9 - 26UY
Fri 9/22 San Diego State vs Boise State+6.546.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 San Diego State at Air Force+10.543.5L 10 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.051.5W 41 - 34OY
Sat 10/21 San Diego State vs Nevada-11.048.5L 0 - 6UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 San Diego State vs Utah State+2.056.5L 24 - 32UN
Sat 11/11 San Diego State at Colorado State+3.546.5L 19 - 22UY
Sat 11/18 San Diego State at San José State+16.548.5L 13 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 San Diego State vs Fresno State+5.547.0W 33 - 18OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.051.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.536.5W 13 - 3UN
Fri 9/15 Air Force vs Utah State-9.045.5W 39 - 21OY
Fri 9/22 Air Force at San José State-6.045.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Air Force vs San Diego State-10.543.5W 49 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Air Force vs Wyoming-12.542.0W 34 - 27ON
Sat 10/21 Air Force at Navy-11.034.0W 17 - 6UN
Sat 10/28 Air Force at Colorado State-14.547.0W 30 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Air Force vs Army-18.532.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 11/11 Air Force at Hawai'i-22.547.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Air Force vs UNLV-2.546.5L 27 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Air Force at Boise State+6.544.5L 19 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#96 (.14)42% (70)20.543% (69)3.08 (77)15441% (77)1723.2 (116)#108 (.24)47% (127)26.853% (130)43% (86)3.38 (30)441.41.5
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)27.846% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)18.237% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1220.518.441.9%3.21.4173261541724.156%43%43%41%15%.14
AFA Defense1318.219.239.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1226.83146.9%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%52%53%43%16%.24
AFA Offense1327.838.245.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1232:4717.235%57%4.9441.41.54.11.5131.6
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1256% (22)43% (69)37.8154.34.116 (89).12 (85)3.08 (77)74% (66)10% (67)0.9 (111)
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1246% (22)53% (130) - - - - .27 (126)3.44 (123)83% (114)8% (118)0.93 (36)
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1243% (112)41% (77)16.826.6171.86.510.210 (120)10 (56).21 (91)1.4 (125)32% (69)27% (100).1 (128)5% (28)1.6 (133)
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1252% (110)43% (86) - - - - - - 12 (37).27 (68)1.5 (33)28% (128)32% (100).34 (80)8% (18)2 (40)
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49   Air Force: 4.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5   Air Force: 5.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.4
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 30
San Diego State 17


Total Points: 47

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30San Diego State20Air Force31Air ForceAir Force -6.5Air Force43.5Over
202309/30Air Force49San Diego State10Air ForceAir Force -10.5Air Force43.5Over
202211/26San Diego State3Air Force13Air ForceAir Force -2Air Force43.5Under
202110/23Air Force14San Diego State20San Diego StateAir Force -3San Diego State38.5Under
201810/12San Diego State21Air Force17San Diego StateSan Diego State -11Air Force43.5Under
201709/23Air Force24San Diego State28San Diego StateSan Diego State -1.5San Diego State48.0Over
201512/05San Diego State27Air Force24San Diego StateSan Diego State -3.5Air Force46.5Over
201411/21San Diego State30Air Force14San Diego StateSan Diego State -2San Diego State0
201310/10Air Force20San Diego State27San Diego StateSan Diego State -3.5San Diego State0
201211/10San Diego State28Air Force9San Diego State
201110/13Air Force27San Diego State41San Diego State
201010/16San Diego State27Air Force25San Diego State
200909/26Air Force26San Diego State14Air Force
200810/11San Diego State10Air Force35Air Force
200711/17Air Force55San Diego State23Air Force
200610/21San Diego State19Air Force12San Diego State
200509/10Air Force41San Diego State29Air Force
200411/13Air Force31San Diego State37San Diego State
200311/22San Diego State24Air Force3San Diego State
200109/29San Diego State21Air Force45Air Force
200011/17Air Force45San Diego State24Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force954 Overs
San Diego State1243 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 92 - 72 - 30 - 4
Road Teams9 - 127 - 24 - 03 - 2

(#104) San Diego State Info
Power Rating: -7.49 #104
Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00


San Diego State has lost 3 straight
San Diego State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State defense does not give up big plays (#10)
San Diego State defense is really good in red zone (#77)
San Diego State Secondary is very good (#91)
San Diego State commits very few Penalties (#30)

San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State has a really bad Offense
San Diego State offense is not Explosive (#83)
San Diego State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#49)
San Diego State does not Sack the QB (#112)
San Diego State has a bad defense (#21)
San Diego State Does Not Stuff Runs (#73)
San Diego State has a bad defensive line (#79)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAFASDSU
OverallOver#7#105
OffenseOff#7#88
DefenseDef#15#106
Special TeamsST#33#44
PassingPass#59#94
RushingRush#46#57
Run BlockRBLK#1#58
Pass BlockPBLK#58#29
Route RunningWR Rt#36#90
TacklingTkl#7#115
Run DefenseR Def#20#115
Pass Rush DefPRush#25#100
Coverage DefCov#37#92

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force -10.5 (43.5)
Air Force won vs San Diego State this year (49-10)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San Diego State last year (31-20)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2023 (49-10)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2022 (13-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | AFA
Depth Chart: SDSU | AFA
Rosters: SDSU | AFA
(#69) Air Force Info
Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70


Air Force has won 4 straight
Air Force has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 1 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force has a good run defense (#76)
Air Force Defensive Line is very good (#123)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)


  
San Diego State's OC Ryan Lindley
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Mayden19931463%20311096.5
Tobin O'Dell1250%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Mayden12852854.170
Jaylon Armstead10344884.348
Kenan Christon9637803.939
Cam Davis5222504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Redman38408310.729
Mekhi Shaw27375213.969
Brionne Penny25290111.636
Baylin Brooks15261117.437

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Kurt Mattix
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655
Cody Moon580092
Cedarious Barfield512003
Marcus Ratcliffe512001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655
Tupu Alualu274340
Daniel Okpoko255253
Cooper McDonald395282
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Tumblin3500012
Dezjhon Malone462107
Zyrus Fiaseu6412655

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zachary Larrier406760%7897211.8
John Busha91947%152018.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Michel200935114.754
Zachary Larrier14260564.341
John Lee Eldridge III8459967.165
Dylan Carson6849327.368
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Roznos12374331.284
Cade Harris5179135.865
Brandon Engel10178017.839
Dane Kinamon5126225.294

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Mock935221
Johnathan Youngblood854031
Trey Taylor745104
Jayden Goodwin732105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bo Richter45201081
PJ Ramsey3512852
Peyton Zdroik327520
Alec Mock935221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy352005
Jayden Goodwin732105
Trey Taylor745104