San Diego State at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -10.5 (43.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 49 - San Diego State: 10  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
SDSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -13.5   (SP+ AFA -16)

Projected Score: SDSU: 16 - AFA: 29 (46)
AFA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
SDSU Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 San Diego State vs Ohio-2.048.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/2 San Diego State vs Idaho State-34.551.0W 36 - 28ON
Sat 9/9 San Diego State vs UCLA+13.049.0L 10 - 35UN
Sat 9/16 San Diego State at Oregon State+24.548.5L 9 - 26UY
Fri 9/22 San Diego State vs Boise State+6.546.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 San Diego State at Air Force+10.543.5L 10 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.051.5W 41 - 34OY
Sat 10/21 San Diego State vs Nevada-11.048.5L 0 - 6UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 San Diego State vs Utah State+2.056.5L 24 - 32UN
Sat 11/11 San Diego State at Colorado State+3.546.5L 19 - 22UY
Sat 11/18 San Diego State at San José State+16.548.5L 13 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 San Diego State vs Fresno State+5.547.0W 33 - 18OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.051.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.536.5W 13 - 3UN
Fri 9/15 Air Force vs Utah State-9.045.5W 39 - 21OY
Fri 9/22 Air Force at San José State-6.045.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Air Force vs San Diego State-10.543.5W 49 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Air Force vs Wyoming-12.542.0W 34 - 27ON
Sat 10/21 Air Force at Navy-11.034.0W 17 - 6UN
Sat 10/28 Air Force at Colorado State-14.547.0W 30 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Air Force vs Army-18.532.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 11/11 Air Force at Hawai'i-22.547.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Air Force vs UNLV-2.546.5L 27 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Air Force at Boise State+6.544.5L 19 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU.1439%21.338%2.8114341%1812.92.0638%29.636%40%3.1559.41.81.9
AFA.349%18.950%3.5532739%704.25.1139%23.338%42%3.7729.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1321.320.338.8%2.921.816324143181453%46%38%41%20%.14
AFA Defense1323.317.739.4%3.771.3 - - - - - 54%45%38%42%20%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1329.635.837.5%3.151.9 - - - - - 44%55%36%40%19%.06
AFA Offense1318.918.748.5%4.25120398327705.387%13%50%39%10%.3

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1330:5615.829%75%7.459.41.81.96.52.8430.3
Air Force1336:2120.545%72%3.929.711.35.11.8029.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1353%38%36.2143.2411.082.8158%14%1.01
AFA Defense1354%38% - - - - .13.0662%13%1.01
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1344%36% - - - - -.022.8462%13%0.9
AFA Offense1387%50%61.7327.25.337.283.5584%8%0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1346%41%14.226.3180.66.912.71514.311.634%31%.376%2.2
AFA Defense1345%42% - - - - - - 9.251.333%24%.197%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1355%40% - - - - - - 13.191.534%28%.186%1.9
AFA Offense1313%39%3.26.770.510.522.382.532.626%33%.362%1.9

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -7.49 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 600.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -7.49   Air Force: 4.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.5   Air Force: 5.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 29
San Diego State 16


Projected Total Points: 46
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30San Diego State20Air Force31Air ForceAir Force -6.5Air Force43.5Over
202309/30Air Force49San Diego State10Air ForceAir Force -10.5Air Force43.5Over
202211/26San Diego State3Air Force13Air ForceAir Force -2Air Force43.5Under
202110/23Air Force14San Diego State20San Diego StateAir Force -3San Diego State38.5Under
201810/12San Diego State21Air Force17San Diego StateSan Diego State -11Air Force43.5Under
201709/23Air Force24San Diego State28San Diego StateSan Diego State -1.5San Diego State48.0Over
201512/05San Diego State27Air Force24San Diego StateSan Diego State -3.5Air Force46.5Over
201411/21San Diego State30Air Force14San Diego StateSan Diego State -2San Diego State0
201310/10Air Force20San Diego State27San Diego StateSan Diego State -3.5San Diego State0
201211/10San Diego State28Air Force9San Diego State
201110/13Air Force27San Diego State41San Diego State
201010/16San Diego State27Air Force25San Diego State
200909/26Air Force26San Diego State14Air Force
200810/11San Diego State10Air Force35Air Force
200711/17Air Force55San Diego State23Air Force
200610/21San Diego State19Air Force12San Diego State
200509/10Air Force41San Diego State29Air Force
200411/13Air Force31San Diego State37San Diego State
200311/22San Diego State24Air Force3San Diego State
200109/29San Diego State21Air Force45Air Force
200011/17Air Force45San Diego State24Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force954 Overs
San Diego State1243 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 92 - 72 - 30 - 4
Road Teams9 - 127 - 24 - 03 - 2

(#104) San Diego State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.49 #104
Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91
Talent Rating: 600.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00

Team Profile






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San Diego State     Ratings Matchup     Air Force
Power #104
#69
Off #106
#34
Def #86
#34
Talent #73
#43
SP+ #107
#45
SP+ Off #110
#76
SP+ Def #91
#29

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force -10.5 (43.5)
Air Force won vs San Diego State this year (49-10)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San Diego State last year (31-20)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2023 (49-10)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2022 (13-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | AFA
Depth Chart: SDSU | AFA
Rosters: SDSU | AFA
(#69) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Team Profile






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San Diego State's OC Ryan Lindley
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams (Tr)1-30-3.00
Josh Nicholson1-100-10.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams (Tr)36419611.635
Mark Redman23251310.932
Mekhi Shaw15160210.730
Cameron Harpole117017.017

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Kurt Mattix
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger822005
Marcus Ratcliffe484010
J.D. Coffey III420001
Zyrus Fiaseu343012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cooper McDonald255321
Noah Avinger822005
Marcus Ratcliffe484010
J.D. Coffey III420001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger822005
Dezjhon Malone272003
Dallas Branch230003

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Brandon Engel22100%810040.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
John Busha7817212.212
Aiden Calvert189125.137
Cameron Breier21206.07
Darius Stone3702.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Brandon Engel331010.314
Aiden Calvert121021.021

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Grant Uyl414220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Osaro Aihie582201
Grant Uyl414220
James Tomasi202110
Camby Goff673013
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Camby Goff673013
Osaro Aihie582201