Boise State at San Diego State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs

Friday, September 22nd 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -6.5 (46.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Boise State 34 - San Diego State: 31 (Mountain West)

Broncos (8 - 6) (7 - 5 - 2)
Coach Andy Avalos (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 26 (33 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 4.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -12.5 (SP+ BSU -18)
Projected Score: BSU: 32 - SDSU: 19 (51)
BSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BSU Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (22 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boise State at Washington	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boise State vs UCF	+3.0	58.5	L 16 - 18	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Boise State vs North Dakota	-15.0	58.0	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Boise State at San Diego State	-6.5	46.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boise State at Memphis	+3.0	58.0	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Boise State vs San José State	-8.0	57.5	W 35 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Boise State at Colorado State	-7.5	60.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Boise State vs Wyoming	-4.5	48.5	W 32 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Boise State at Fresno State	+2.5	53.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	58.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Boise State at Utah State	-5.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Boise State vs Air Force	-6.5	44.5	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Boise State at UNLV	-2.5	58.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	32.1	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	25.6	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4
SDSU	#96 (.14)	42% (70)	20.5	43% (69)	3.08 (77)	154	41% (77)	172	3.2 (116)	#108 (.24)	47% (127)	26.8	53% (130)	43% (86)	3.38 (30)	44	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	32.1	33.4	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3
SDSU Defense	12	26.8	23.7	46.9%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	53%	43%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	25.6	31.4	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22
SDSU Offense	12	20.5	22	41.9%	3.2	1.4	17	326	154	172	4.1	56%	43%	43%	41%	15%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4
San Diego State	12	32:47	17.2	35%	57%	4.9	44	1.4	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	31.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)
SDSU Defense	12	46% (22)	53% (130)	-	-	-	-	.27 (126)	3.44 (123)	83% (114)	8% (118)	0.93 (36)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)
SDSU Offense	12	56% (22)	43% (69)	37.8	154.3	4.1	16 (89)	.12 (85)	3.08 (77)	74% (66)	10% (67)	0.9 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)
SDSU Defense	12	52% (110)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (68)	1.5 (33)	28% (128)	32% (100)	.34 (80)	8% (18)	2 (40)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)
SDSU Offense	12	43% (112)	41% (77)	16.8	26.6	171.8	6.5	10.2	10 (120)	10 (56)	.21 (91)	1.4 (125)	32% (69)	27% (100)	.1 (128)	5% (28)	1.6 (133)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.57 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 21.76 #28
Boise State's Defense Rating: 8.84 #58
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Boise State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 4.90
Boise State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.57 San Diego State: -6.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 7.4 San Diego State: -10.5

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -6.495 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.4

Boise State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 32
San Diego State 19

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 32
Boise State 24

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 29
San Diego State 25

Total Points: 54

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 22
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.7

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	San Diego State	17	Boise State	7	San Diego State -1.5	San Diego State	41.5	Under
2024	11/01	Boise State	56	San Diego State	24	Boise State -24.5	Boise State	55.5	Over
2023	09/22	San Diego State	31	Boise State	34	Boise State -6.5	San Diego State	46.0	Over
2022	09/30	Boise State	35	San Diego State	13	Boise State -6	Boise State	38.0	Over
2021	11/26	San Diego State	27	Boise State	16	Boise State -3	San Diego State	44.0	Under
2018	10/06	Boise State	13	San Diego State	19	Boise State -13.5	San Diego State	50.0	Under
2017	10/14	San Diego State	14	Boise State	31	San Diego State -5.5	Boise State	47.0	Under
2014	11/15	Boise State	38	San Diego State	29	Boise State -15	San Diego State	0
2013	11/23	San Diego State	34	Boise State	31	Boise State -6	San Diego State	0
2012	11/03	Boise State	19	San Diego State	21
2011	11/19	San Diego State	35	Boise State	52

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	5	6	3 Overs
Boise State	6	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	6 - 3	3 - 3	3 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 6	3 - 6	0 - 3	3 - 3

(#37) BSU at (#104) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#104
SP+SP+	#41	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#126
OffenseOff	#26	#104
DefenseDef	#111	#133
Spec TeamsST	#64	#52
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#69

Boise State Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#133
SuccessSuc	#21	#127
ExplosiveExp	#32	#22
PPAPPA	#19	#108
PowerPwr	#28	#86
SP+SP+	#29	#91
Pts POPPO	#38	#30
HavocHav	#40	#79

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#3	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#130
Run ExplRExp	#31	#36
PPAExp	#6	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#121
TackleTak	-	#133

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#12	#33
PPAExp	#29	#68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#134
F7 HavocF7	#34	#118
DB HavocDB	#66	#18

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#111
SuccessSuc	#70	#59
ExplosiveExp	#130	#111
PPAPPA	#96	#90
PowerPwr	#106	#58
SP+SP+	#110	#70
Pts POPPO	#116	#90
HavocHav	#49	#45

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#81	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#69	#79
Run ExplRExp	#111	#108
PPAExp	#85	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#50	#48
TackleTak	-	#130

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#91
PPAExp	#91	#72
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#109
F7 HavocF7	#67	#34
DB HavocDB	#28	#72

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 66° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Boise State 6.5 (46.0)
Boise State won at San Diego State this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat San Diego State last year (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2022 (35-13)

BSU's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	121	212	57%	1752	11	9	8.3
Maddux Madsen	81	132	61%	1191	9	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	221	1351	14	6.1	68
George Holani	133	744	7	5.6	75
Taylen Green	78	436	9	5.6	70
Jambres Dubar	62	335	2	5.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	47	873	5	18.6	83
Ashton Jeanty	43	569	5	13.2	75
Billy Bowens	28	383	1	13.7	52
Prince Strachan	12	274	2	22.8	74

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Seyi Oladipo	60	9	2	1	4
Rodney Robinson	54	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmed Hassanein	50	17	13	7	0
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5
Braxton Fely	15	5	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Clark	52	2	0	1	8
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5

SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Mayden	199	314	63%	2031	10	9	6.5
Tobin O'Dell	1	2	50%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Mayden	128	528	5	4.1	70
Jaylon Armstead	103	448	8	4.3	48
Kenan Christon	96	378	0	3.9	39
Cam Davis	52	225	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Redman	38	408	3	10.7	29
Mekhi Shaw	27	375	2	13.9	69
Brionne Penny	25	290	1	11.6	36
Baylin Brooks	15	261	1	17.4	37

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Cody Moon	58	0	0	9	2
Cedarious Barfield	51	2	0	0	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	51	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Tupu Alualu	27	4	3	4	0
Daniel Okpoko	25	5	2	5	3
Cooper McDonald	39	5	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Tumblin	35	0	0	0	12
Dezjhon Malone	46	2	1	0	7
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5