Air Force at Hawai'i - 2023 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (11:00 PM EST)
Air Force -22.5 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Hawai'i 27 - Air Force: 13 (Mountain West)

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (25 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HAW is playing their 5th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -14.5 (SP+ AFA -22)
Projected Score: AFA: 31 - HAW: 17 (48)
AFA Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
AFA Travel: 3341 miles, 4 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (4 - 13)
Avg Score : 21 - 32 (23 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 8.6 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Hawai'i at Vanderbilt	+17.0	54.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Fri 9/1	Hawai'i vs Stanford	+2.0	54.0	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	Hawai'i vs UAlbany	-10.5	58.5	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Hawai'i at Oregon	+38.5	67.5	L 10 - 55	U	N
Sat 9/23	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-4.0	54.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Hawai'i at UNLV	+10.5	58.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Hawai'i vs San Diego State	+6.0	51.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Hawai'i at New Mexico	-1.5	60.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/28	Hawai'i vs San José State	+10.5	57.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/4	Hawai'i at Nevada	+3.5	50.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Hawai'i vs Air Force	+22.5	47.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Hawai'i at Wyoming	+13.5	45.5	L 9 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Hawai'i vs Colorado State	+6.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	27.8	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	18.2	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1
HAW	#94 (.14)	41% (82)	21.4	40% (98)	2.79 (119)	76	42% (64)	276	3.22 (111)	#102 (.24)	43% (84)	32.2	44% (77)	43% (88)	4.14 (101)	56.4	1.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	27.8	24.8	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
HAW Defense	13	32.2	26.7	43.2%	4.14	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	44%	43%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	18.2	18.6	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12
HAW Offense	13	21.4	23.3	41%	3.22	1.8	19	352	76	276	3.1	34%	65%	40%	42%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6
Hawai'i	13	29:39	19.3	37%	52%	6.2	56.4	1.8	1.1	5.2	1.7	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)
HAW Defense	13	57% (127)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (87)	3.16 (83)	75% (82)	10% (66)	1.06 (94)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)
HAW Offense	13	34% (133)	40% (98)	24.9	76.1	3.1	6 (133)	.09 (103)	2.79 (119)	62% (126)	11% (90)	1 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)
HAW Defense	13	43% (7)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.38 (114)	1.7 (110)	31% (89)	31% (80)	.4 (107)	6% (58)	2.1 (84)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)
HAW Offense	13	65% (2)	42% (64)	25.9	41.3	276.4	6.7	10.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.2 (94)	1.5 (104)	34% (96)	32% (62)	.33 (69)	7% (100)	2 (84)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 Hawai'i: -12.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 Hawai'i: -16.7

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -12.32 #127
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 14.83 #118
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Hawai'i's 2023 Expected Record: 4.40 - 8.60
Hawai'i's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #123
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #121

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 31
Hawai'i 17

Total Points: 48

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.3
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

Hawai'i's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Hawai'i	27	Air Force	13	Hawai'i	Air Force -22.5	Hawai'i	47.5	Under
2019	10/19	Hawai'i	26	Air Force	56	Air Force	Air Force -4.5	Air Force	66.5	Over
2016	10/22	Air Force	27	Hawai'i	34	Hawai'i	Air Force -17.5	Hawai'i	58.0	Over
2015	10/31	Hawai'i	7	Air Force	58	Air Force	Air Force -7.5	Air Force	50.0	Over
2012	11/16	Air Force	21	Hawai'i	7	Air Force
2001	11/24	Hawai'i	52	Air Force	30	Hawai'i

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	3	2	3 Overs
Air Force	3	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 3	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0

(#69) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Air Force has lost 1 straight
Air Force has won 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force has a good run defense (#76)
Air Force Defensive Line is very good (#123)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	HAW	AFA
OverallOver	#91	#7
OffenseOff	#67	#7
DefenseDef	#94	#15
Special TeamsST	#95	#33
PassingPass	#29	#59
RushingRush	#77	#46
Run BlockRBLK	#87	#1
Pass BlockPBLK	#28	#58
Route RunningWR Rt	#71	#36
TacklingTkl	#109	#7
Run DefenseR Def	#71	#20
Pass Rush DefPRush	#83	#25
Coverage DefCov	#101	#37

Rematch from Week 11
Air Force 22.5 (47.5)
Hawai'i won vs Air Force this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Air Force in 2023 (27-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | HAW
Depth Chart: AFA | HAW
Rosters: AFA | HAW

(#127) Hawai'i Info
Power Rating: -12.32 #127
Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
Defense Rating: 14.83 #118
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #123
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #121
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.40 - 8.60

Hawai'i has won 1 straight
Hawai'i has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Hawai'i Highlights

Hawai'i Deficiencies
Hawai'i has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Hawai'i Can Not Run the Ball (#90)
Hawai'i throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Hawai'i Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#46)
Hawai'i offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#106)
Hawai'i Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Hawai'i has a bad red zone defense (#56)

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4

Hawai'i's OC Roman Sapolu

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	332	525	63%	3542	26	14	6.7
Jake Farrell	3	8	38%	14	0	1	1.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	63	255	1	4.0	22
Jordan Johnson	34	198	0	5.8	28
David Cordero	32	138	0	4.3	36
Tylan Hines	27	93	0	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Steven McBride (Tr)	63	1024	9	16.3	65
Pofele Ashlock	83	832	9	10.0	53
Koali Nishigaya	39	322	1	8.3	29
Alex Perry	24	277	3	11.5	38

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

Hawai'i's DC Jacob Yoro

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Peter Manuma	88	6	0	0	1
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0
Jalen Smith	65	9	2	1	1
Meki Pei	43	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Evaimalo	23	6	4	1	1
Elijah Robinson (Tr)	24	3	3	0	1
Andrew Choi	36	8	3	0	0
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Virdel Edwards	37	1	9
Jojo Forest	12	1	8
Caleb Brown	17	1	7