Wyoming at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -12.5 (42.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 34 - Wyoming: 27 (Mountain West)

Cowboys (9 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Craig Bohl (54 - 57)
Avg Score : 16 - 21 (11 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 5.9 (#59)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AFA coming off BYE
WYO is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -7 (SP+ AFA -9)
Projected Score: WYO: 19 - AFA: 26 (44)
AFA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
WYO Travel: 164 miles

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WYO Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wyoming's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Wyoming vs Texas Tech	+13.0	50.5	W 35 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Wyoming vs Portland State	-28.0	51.0	W 31 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Wyoming at Texas	+31.0	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Wyoming vs App State	-3.0	45.0	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/30	Wyoming vs New Mexico	-14.5	40.5	W 35 - 26	O	N
Sat 10/7	Wyoming vs Fresno State	+5.5	43.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Wyoming at Air Force	+12.5	42.0	L 27 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Wyoming at Boise State	+4.5	48.5	L 7 - 32	U	N
Fri 11/3	Wyoming vs Colorado State	-6.0	41.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Fri 11/10	Wyoming at UNLV	+2.5	48.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/18	Wyoming vs Hawai'i	-13.5	45.5	W 42 - 9	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Wyoming at Nevada	-11.0	42.0	W 42 - 6	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Wyoming vs Toledo	-4.5	43.5	W 16 - 15	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wyoming's Schedule

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WYO	.12	41%	16	46%	3.26	181	35%	132	3.65	.17	41%	20.5	46%	37%	3.9	37.5	1.2	1.4
AFA	.3	49%	29.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	30.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WYO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WYO Offense	13	16	11.3	40.7%	3.65	1.2	16	314	181	132	4.9	59%	40%	46%	35%	15%	.12
AFA Defense	13	30.3	27.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WYO Defense	13	20.5	22.7	41.1%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	37%	14%	.17
AFA Offense	13	29.8	27.5	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wyoming	13	29:06	16	35%	29%	4.3	37.5	1.2	1.4	5.1	2.8	2	28.5
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WYO Offense	13	59%	46%	36.8	181.4	4.9	16	.22	3.26	65%	8%	1.02
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WYO Defense	13	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.38	81%	9%	0.94
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WYO Offense	13	40%	35%	12	23.4	132.2	5.7	11	11	12	.05	1.4	29%	25%	.16	7%	1.7
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WYO Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.19	1.6	35%	30%	.33	5%	2.1
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

Wyoming's Power Ratings
Wyoming's Power Rating: -0.77 #68
Wyoming's Offense Rating: 17.46 #57
Wyoming's Defense Rating: 9.21 #63
2023 Talent Rating: 338.50 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Wyoming's 2023 Expected Record: 7.10 - 5.90
Wyoming's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #78
Wyoming's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #81
Wyoming's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Wyoming: -0.77 Air Force: 4.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wyoming: -3.8 Air Force: 5.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.71 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 300.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Wyoming Scoring
Offense: 16 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.7

Wyoming's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 26
Wyoming 19

Projected Total Points: 44

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Air Force	24	Wyoming	21	Air Force -4	Wyoming	56.5	Under
2024	09/28	Wyoming	31	Air Force	19	Air Force -4	Wyoming	33.5	Over
2023	10/14	Air Force	34	Wyoming	27	Air Force -12.5	Wyoming	42.0	Over
2022	09/16	Wyoming	17	Air Force	14	Air Force -16.5	Wyoming	47.0	Under
2021	10/09	Air Force	24	Wyoming	14	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	46.5	Under
2019	11/30	Air Force	20	Wyoming	6	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2018	11/17	Wyoming	35	Air Force	27	Wyoming -3	Wyoming	42.5	Over
2017	11/11	Air Force	14	Wyoming	28	Air Force -2.5	Wyoming	51.0	Under
2016	10/08	Wyoming	35	Air Force	26	Air Force -13.5	Wyoming	50.0	Over
2015	10/10	Air Force	31	Wyoming	17	Air Force -21.5	Wyoming	57.0	Under
2014	09/06	Wyoming	17	Air Force	13	Wyoming -1	Wyoming	0
2013	09/21	Air Force	23	Wyoming	56	Wyoming -2.5	Wyoming	0
2012	10/13	Wyoming	27	Air Force	28
2011	11/12	Air Force	17	Wyoming	25
2010	09/25	Wyoming	14	Air Force	20
2009	10/17	Air Force	10	Wyoming	0
2008	09/06	Wyoming	3	Air Force	23
2007	10/20	Air Force	20	Wyoming	12
2006	09/23	Wyoming	24	Air Force	31
2005	09/17	Air Force	28	Wyoming	29
2004	10/30	Wyoming	43	Air Force	26
2003	09/20	Air Force	35	Wyoming	29
2002	10/26	Wyoming	34	Air Force	26
2001	10/13	Air Force	24	Wyoming	13
2000	10/13	Wyoming	34	Air Force	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	14	2	4 Overs
Wyoming	11	10	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	7 - 5	4 - 4	3 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 16	5 - 7	1 - 3	4 - 4

(#68) WYO at (#69) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WYO	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#68	#69
SP+SP+	#78	#45
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#9
OffenseOff	#40	#7
DefenseDef	#24	#19
Spec TeamsST	#38	#38
TalentTal	#124	#130
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

Wyoming Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Wyoming on Offense


CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#19
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#57	#34
SP+SP+	#81	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wyoming Run Game


CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#80	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Wyoming Pass Game


CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#24
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#34	#63
SP+SP+	#76	#65
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Run GameRun	#64	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

WYO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Air Force -12.5 (42.0)
Air Force won vs Wyoming this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Wyoming last year (24-21)
Wyoming beat Air Force in 2024 (31-19)
Air Force beat Wyoming in 2023 (34-27)

WYO's OC Tim Polasek (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Andrew Peasley	166	266	62%	1991	20	5	7.5
Evan Svoboda	23	38	61%	200	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harrison Waylee (Tr)	164	947	5	5.8	75
Andrew Peasley	110	419	7	3.8	43
Sam Scott	51	241	2	4.7	19
Jamari Ferrell	50	184	1	3.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wyatt Wieland	44	480	5	10.9	40
Ayir Asante (Tr)	21	372	6	17.7	66
Johnmichael Gyllenborg	23	360	3	15.7	89
Treyton Welch	31	308	2	9.9	32

View Wyoming's Full Roster

WYO's DC Jay Sawvel (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Gibbs	101	4	2	3	5
Shae Suiaunoa	89	5	2	2	2
Wyett Ekeler	70	4	2	0	6
Isaac White	54	2	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeVonne Harris	31	4	4	8	4
Braden Siders	24	5	4	3	2
Sabastian Harsh	47	9	3	1	1
Easton Gibbs	101	4	2	3	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jakorey Hawkins	39	1	0	8
Wyett Ekeler	70	4	2	6
Isaac White	54	2	1	6

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4