Army at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview
Army logo Army Black Knights vs Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (2:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -18.5 (32.0) (-1100)  Open: -18.5
Army 23 - Air Force: 3

 
Black Knights (6 - 6) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Monken (66 - 50)
Avg Score : 21 - 21 (17 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
ARMY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -11   (SP+ AFA -10)

Projected Score: ARMY: 15 - AFA: 26 (41)
AFA Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
ARMY Travel: 1630 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (38 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Army's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Army at UL Monroe-8.547.0L 13 - 17UN
Sat 9/9 Army vs Delaware State-39.544.0W 57 - 0OY
Fri 9/15 Army at UTSA+7.042.0W 37 - 29OY
Sat 9/23 Army at Syracuse+13.050.5L 16 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Army vs Boston College-2.547.0L 24 - 27ON
Sat 10/14 Army vs Troy+6.541.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/21 Army at LSU+33.060.0L 0 - 62ON
Sat 10/28 Army vs Massachusetts-10.049.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 11/4 Army vs Air Force+18.532.0W 23 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Army vs Holy Cross-11.555.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/18 Army vs Coastal Carolina+1.540.5W 28 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9 Army vs Navy-2.028.0W 17 - 11UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Army's Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.051.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.536.5W 13 - 3UN
Fri 9/15 Air Force vs Utah State-9.045.5W 39 - 21OY
Fri 9/22 Air Force at San José State-6.045.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Air Force vs San Diego State-10.543.5W 49 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Air Force vs Wyoming-12.542.0W 34 - 27ON
Sat 10/21 Air Force at Navy-11.034.0W 17 - 6UN
Sat 10/28 Air Force at Colorado State-14.547.0W 30 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Air Force vs Army-18.532.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 11/11 Air Force at Hawai'i-22.547.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Air Force vs UNLV-2.546.5L 27 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Air Force at Boise State+6.544.5L 19 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARMY#99 (.13)40% (99)20.541% (91)3.33 (27)20937% (105)1033.07 (122)#95 (.23)46% (116)21.147% (107)46% (119)2.58 (3)36.31.81.6
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)27.846% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)18.237% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARMY#10 (.32)51% (6)52% (7)3.57 (5)27843% (52)764.47 (19)#39 (.12)43% (89)45% (87)43% (88)2.57 (2)30.50.61.4
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARMY Offense1220.516.539.5%3.071.8163122091034.476%22%41%37%12%.13
AFA Defense1318.219.239.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARMY Defense1221.134.345.6%2.581.6 - - - - - 56%43%47%46%12%.23
AFA Offense1327.838.245.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Army1232:3216.338%59%3.936.31.81.63.91.4332.7
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARMY Offense1276% (2)41% (91)47.8208.84.419 (69).11 (88)3.33 (27)82% (9)9% (42)0.89 (118)
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARMY Defense1256% (123)47% (107) - - - - .26 (123)3.44 (122)63% (17)8% (112)1.06 (96)
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARMY Offense1222% (132)37% (105)6.913.7102.87.514.97 (129)11 (68).33 (51)2 (2)29% (21)23% (127).14 (120)3% (5)1.9 (115)
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARMY Defense1243% (9)46% (119) - - - - - - 9 (87).27 (71)1.4 (16)27% (130)29% (57).26 (40)4% (131)2.2 (110)
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)

Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: -12.25 #125
Army's Offense Rating: 11.86 #111
Army's Defense Rating: 11.47 #93
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Army's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Army's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #82
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #113
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Army: -12.25   Air Force: 2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Army: -5.2   Air Force: 5.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Army Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.5
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Army's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 26
Army 15


Total Points: 41

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Army20Air Force3ArmyArmy -18Air Force38.5Under
202311/04Air Force3Army23ArmyAir Force -18.5Army32.0Under
202211/05Army7Air Force13Air ForceAir Force -7Army40.5Under
202111/06Air Force14Army21ArmyAir Force -2.5Army37.5Under
202012/19Army10Air Force7ArmyAir Force -3Army37.0Under
201911/02Air Force17Army13Air ForceAir Force -17Army44.5Under
201811/03Army17Air Force14ArmyArmy -4.5Air Force41.5Under
201711/04Air Force0Army21ArmyAir Force -6.5Army54.5Under
201611/05Army12Air Force31Air ForceAir Force -3Air Force46.5Under
201511/07Air Force20Army3Air ForceAir Force -17.5Army50.5Under
201411/01Army6Air Force23Air ForceAir Force -5.5Air Force0
201311/02Air Force42Army28Air ForceAir Force -1.5Air Force0
201211/03Army41Air Force21Army
201111/05Air Force24Army14Air Force
201011/06Army22Air Force42Air Force
200911/07Air Force35Army7Air Force
200811/01Army7Air Force16Air Force
200711/03Air Force30Army10Air Force
200611/03Army7Air Force43Air Force
200511/05Air Force24Army27Army
200411/06Army22Air Force31Air Force
200311/08Air Force31Army3Air Force
200211/09Army30Air Force49Air Force
200111/03Air Force34Army24Air Force
200011/03Army27Air Force41Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1750 Overs
Army8710 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 133 - 91 - 72 - 2
Road Teams13 - 129 - 32 - 27 - 1

(#125) Army Info
Power Rating: -12.25 #125
Offense Rating: 11.86 #111
Defense Rating: 11.47 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #82
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #113
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40


Army has lost 5 straight
Army has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 3 (1 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

Army Highlights
Army has Really Good Running Game (#58)
Army has a top Offensive Line (#107)
Army does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#40)

Army defense is really good in red zone (#111)
Army commits very few Penalties (#1)

Army Deficiencies
Army has a really bad Offense
Army has a really bad Offense Away from Home
Army has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Army Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Army offense is not Explosive (#90)
Army offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#83)
Army pass game is really bad (#77)
Army Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
Army does not Sack the QB (#122)
Army has a bad defense (#39)
Army Does Not Stuff Runs (#17)
Army has a bad defensive line (#46)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAFAARMY
OverallOver#7#62
OffenseOff#7#84
DefenseDef#15#52
Special TeamsST#33#12
PassingPass#59#116
RushingRush#46#83
Run BlockRBLK#1#14
Pass BlockPBLK#58#95
Route RunningWR Rt#36#89
TacklingTkl#7#51
Run DefenseR Def#20#61
Pass Rush DefPRush#25#86
Coverage DefCov#37#47

Rematch from Week 10
Air Force -18.5 (32.0)
Army won at Air Force this year (23-3)

Previous Matchups
Army beat Air Force last year (20-3)
Army beat Air Force in 2023 (23-3)
Air Force beat Army in 2022 (13-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Empower Field at Mile High
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARMY | AFA
Depth Chart: ARMY | AFA
Rosters: ARMY | AFA
(#69) Air Force Info
Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70


Air Force has won 8 straight
Air Force has won 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 1 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force has a good run defense (#76)
Air Force Defensive Line is very good (#123)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)


  
Army's OC Matt Drinkall
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Daily6012050%913767.6
Champ Harris193554%260047.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Daily21490274.262
Kanye Udoh9952415.323
Hayden Reed5020524.127
Tyrell Robinson3918724.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Alston9266229.670
Noah Short18252214.080
Casey Reynolds16237014.869
Tobi Olawole7101014.443

View Army's Full Roster
Army's DC Nate Woody
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leo Lowin755301
Quindrelin Hammonds574302
Kalib Fortner553210
Max DiDomenico472000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leo Lowin755301
Jack Latore204300
Quindrelin Hammonds574302
Jimmy Ciarlo475220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabari Moore353006
Quindrelin Hammonds574302
Cameron Jones343112

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zachary Larrier406760%7897211.8
John Busha91947%152018.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Michel200935114.754
Zachary Larrier14260564.341
John Lee Eldridge III8459967.165
Dylan Carson6849327.368
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Roznos12374331.284
Cade Harris5179135.865
Brandon Engel10178017.839
Dane Kinamon5126225.294

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Mock935221
Johnathan Youngblood854031
Trey Taylor745104
Jayden Goodwin732105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bo Richter45201081
PJ Ramsey3512852
Peyton Zdroik327520
Alec Mock935221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy352005
Jayden Goodwin732105
Trey Taylor745104