Air Force at Navy - 2023 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -11 (34.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 17 - Navy: 6

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -11.5 (SP+ AFA -19)
Projected Score: AFA: 30 - NAVY: 18 (48)
AFA Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs behind

Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Navy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+20.5	49.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/9	Navy vs Wagner	-43.5	49.0	W 24 - 0	U	N
Thu 9/14	Navy at Memphis	+12.5	47.0	L 24 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	Navy vs South Florida	-4.0	54.0	L 30 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/7	Navy vs North Texas	-6.5	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Navy at Charlotte	-3.5	44.0	W 14 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Navy vs Air Force	+11.0	34.0	L 6 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Navy at Temple	-7.0	46.0	L 18 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/11	Navy vs UAB	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Navy vs East Carolina	-2.5	30.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Navy at SMU	+20.0	46.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Navy vs Army	+2.0	28.0	L 11 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	29.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	30.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
NAVY	.15	37%	31.5	39%	2.99	241	29%	86	3.56	.24	39%	25	34%	43%	3.72	31.3	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	29.8	32.2	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
NAVY Defense	12	25	24.2	38.6%	3.72	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	34%	43%	25%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	30.3	32.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	38	36.7%	3.56	1.3	18	327	241	86	4.1	82%	17%	39%	29%	14%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
Navy	12	34:37	17.6	38%	62%	3.8	31.3	1.3	1.7	6.1	2.8	0	28.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
NAVY Defense	12	50%	34%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.6	69%	17%	1.03

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
NAVY Offense	12	82%	39%	59	241.2	4.1	22	.16	2.99	75%	12%	1.15

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
NAVY Defense	12	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.5	1.9	36%	32%	.47	8%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
NAVY Offense	12	17%	29%	4.5	10.5	85.8	8.2	19.1	9	6	.2	2.6	33%	27%	.32	3%	2.1

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 300.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 Navy: -9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 Navy: -13.9

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 30.00 #212
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 30
Navy 18

Projected Total Points: 48

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Navy	34	Air Force	31	Navy -13.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2024	10/05	Air Force	7	Navy	34	Navy -10	Navy	37.0	Over
2023	10/21	Navy	6	Air Force	17	Air Force -11	NA	34.0	Under
2022	10/01	Air Force	13	Navy	10	Air Force -14	Navy	38.0	Under
2021	09/11	Navy	3	Air Force	23	Air Force -6	Air Force	40.0	Under
2020	10/03	Air Force	40	Navy	7	Navy -6.5	Air Force	46.5	Over
2019	10/05	Navy	34	Air Force	25	Air Force -3	Navy	46.5	Over
2018	10/06	Air Force	35	Navy	7	Navy -2.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2017	10/07	Navy	48	Air Force	45	Navy -8.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Air Force	28	Navy	14	Air Force -10.5	Air Force	50.5	Under
2015	10/03	Navy	33	Air Force	11	Navy -6	Navy	49.5	Under
2014	10/04	Air Force	30	Navy	21	Navy -4	Air Force	0
2013	10/05	Navy	28	Air Force	10	Navy -11	Navy	0
2012	10/06	Air Force	21	Navy	28
2011	10/01	Navy	34	Air Force	35
2010	10/02	Air Force	14	Navy	6
2009	10/03	Navy	16	Air Force	13
2008	10/04	Air Force	27	Navy	33
2007	09/29	Navy	31	Air Force	20
2006	10/07	Air Force	17	Navy	24
2005	10/08	Navy	27	Air Force	24
2004	09/30	Air Force	21	Navy	24
2003	10/04	Navy	28	Air Force	25
2002	10/05	Air Force	48	Navy	7
2001	10/06	Navy	18	Air Force	24
2000	10/06	Air Force	27	Navy	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	14	5	5 Overs
Air Force	12	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 9	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 17	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3

(#69) AFA at (#116) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#69	#116
SP+SP+	#45	#114
Perf GradeGrade	#9	#105
OffenseOff	#7	#114
DefenseDef	#19	#64
Spec TeamsST	#38	#49
TalentTal	#130	#212
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Air Force Injury Report

Navy Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#34	#30
SP+SP+	#76	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#64	#62
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#67	#88
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Navy on Offense


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#19
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#126	#34
SP+SP+	#124	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Navy Run Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#125	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Navy Pass Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#136	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Air Force 11.0 (34.0)
Air Force won at Navy this year (17-6)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-31)
Navy beat Air Force in 2024 (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4

NAVY's OC Grant Chesnut (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tai Lavatai	56	101	55%	701	5	2	6.9
Xavier Arline	23	44	52%	320	2	2	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Tecza	126	758	5	6.0	75
Daba Fofana	72	283	3	3.9	20
Xavier Arline	77	257	2	3.3	50
Tai Lavatai	75	245	2	3.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	19	382	4	20.1	69
Brandon Chatman	19	254	0	13.4	58
Jayden Umbarger	14	145	1	10.4	22
Alex Tecza	16	97	0	6.1	16

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Mbiti Williams Jr.	55	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	44	8	5	5	1
Landon Robinson	28	5	4	1	0
Luke Pirris	52	9	4	1	3
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Dashaun Peele	32	1	0	0	4