Air Force at Navy - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -11 (34.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 17 - Navy: 6

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -11.5 (SP+ AFA -19)
Projected Score: AFA: 27 - NAVY: 16 (48)
AFA Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs behind

Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (39 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Navy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+20.5	49.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/9	Navy vs Wagner	-43.5	49.0	W 24 - 0	U	N
Thu 9/14	Navy at Memphis	+12.5	47.0	L 24 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	Navy vs South Florida	-4.0	54.0	L 30 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/7	Navy vs North Texas	-6.5	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Navy at Charlotte	-3.5	44.0	W 14 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Navy vs Air Force	+11.0	34.0	L 6 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Navy at Temple	-7.0	46.0	L 18 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/11	Navy vs UAB	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Navy vs East Carolina	-2.5	30.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Navy at SMU	+20.0	46.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Navy vs Army	+2.0	28.0	L 11 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	18.9	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	23.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
NAVY	.15	37%	31.3	39%	2.99	241	29%	86	3.56	.24	39%	22.2	34%	43%	3.72	31.3	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	18.9	19.2	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
NAVY Defense	12	22.2	25.6	38.6%	3.72	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	34%	43%	25%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	23.3	28.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
NAVY Offense	12	31.3	38.8	36.7%	3.56	1.3	18	327	241	86	4.1	82%	17%	39%	29%	14%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
Navy	12	34:37	17.6	38%	62%	3.8	31.3	1.3	1.7	6.1	2.8	0	28.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
NAVY Defense	12	50%	34%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.6	69%	17%	1.03

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
NAVY Offense	12	82%	39%	59	241.2	4.1	22	.16	2.99	75%	12%	1.15

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
NAVY Defense	12	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.5	1.9	36%	32%	.47	8%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
NAVY Offense	12	17%	29%	4.5	10.5	85.8	8.2	19.1	9	6	.2	2.6	33%	27%	.32	3%	2.1

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 Navy: -9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 Navy: -13.9

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 504.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 492.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 27
Navy 16

Projected Total Points: 48

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Air Force	7	Navy	34	Navy	Navy -10	Navy	37.0	Over
2023	10/21	Navy	6	Air Force	17	Air Force	Air Force -11	NA	34.0	Under
2022	10/01	Air Force	13	Navy	10	Air Force	Air Force -14	Navy	38.0	Under
2021	09/11	Navy	3	Air Force	23	Air Force	Air Force -6	Air Force	40.0	Under
2020	10/03	Air Force	40	Navy	7	Air Force	Navy -6.5	Air Force	46.5	Over
2019	10/05	Navy	34	Air Force	25	Navy	Air Force -3	Navy	46.5	Over
2018	10/06	Air Force	35	Navy	7	Air Force	Navy -2.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2017	10/07	Navy	48	Air Force	45	Navy	Navy -8.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Air Force	28	Navy	14	Air Force	Air Force -10.5	Air Force	50.5	Under
2015	10/03	Navy	33	Air Force	11	Navy	Navy -6	Navy	49.5	Under
2014	10/04	Air Force	30	Navy	21	Air Force	Navy -4	Air Force	0
2013	10/05	Navy	28	Air Force	10	Navy	Navy -11	Navy	0
2012	10/06	Air Force	21	Navy	28	Navy
2011	10/01	Navy	34	Air Force	35	Air Force
2010	10/02	Air Force	14	Navy	6	Air Force
2009	10/03	Navy	16	Air Force	13	Navy
2008	10/04	Air Force	27	Navy	33	Navy
2007	09/29	Navy	31	Air Force	20	Navy
2006	10/07	Air Force	17	Navy	24	Navy
2005	10/08	Navy	27	Air Force	24	Navy
2004	09/30	Air Force	21	Navy	24	Navy
2003	10/04	Navy	28	Air Force	25	Navy
2002	10/05	Air Force	48	Navy	7	Air Force
2001	10/06	Navy	18	Air Force	24	Air Force
2000	10/06	Air Force	27	Navy	13	Air Force

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	13	5	4 Overs
Air Force	12	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	7 - 4	3 - 2	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 16	4 - 7	2 - 4	2 - 3

(#69) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Team Profile

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Air Force Ratings Matchup Navy

Power #69

#116

Off #34

#126

Def #34

#30

Talent #43

#88

SP+ #45

#114

SP+ Off #76

#124

SP+ Def #29

#72

Rematch from Week 8
Air Force 11.0 (34.0)
Air Force won at Navy this year (17-6)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)
Air Force beat Navy in 2022 (13-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65° - Wind: 14 mph

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | NAVY
Depth Chart: AFA | NAVY
Rosters: AFA | NAVY

(#116) Navy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 504.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Team Profile

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Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Brandon Engel	2	2	100%	81	0	0	40.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Busha	78	172	1	2.2	12
Aiden Calvert	18	91	2	5.1	37
Cameron Breier	2	12	0	6.0	7
Darius Stone	3	7	0	2.3	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	5	109	21.8	52
Brandon Engel	3	31	10.3	14
Aiden Calvert	1	21	21.0	21

View Air Force's Full Roster

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Grant Uyl	41	4	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Grant Uyl	41	4	2	2	0
James Tomasi	20	2	1	1	0
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1

Navy's OC Grant Chesnut

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49
Amin Hassan	14	46	0	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	YPC	LONG
Amin Hassan	3	34	11.3	23
Thomas Scully	1	20	20.0	20
Daba Fofana	1	3	3.0	3

View Navy's Full Roster

Navy's DC P.J. Volker

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Mbiti Williams Jr.	59	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	0	5
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry	38	3	0	1	9
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	0	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4