Air Force at Colorado State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -14.5 (47.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 30 - Colorado State: 13  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (25 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
CSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -6   (SP+ AFA -14.5)

Projected Score: AFA: 27 - CSU: 21 (49)
AFA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 109 miles
Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (27 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.051.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.536.5W 13 - 3UN
Fri 9/15 Air Force vs Utah State-9.045.5W 39 - 21OY
Fri 9/22 Air Force at San José State-6.045.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Air Force vs San Diego State-10.543.5W 49 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Air Force vs Wyoming-12.542.0W 34 - 27ON
Sat 10/21 Air Force at Navy-11.034.0W 17 - 6UN
Sat 10/28 Air Force at Colorado State-14.547.0W 30 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Air Force vs Army-18.532.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 11/11 Air Force at Hawai'i-22.547.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Air Force vs UNLV-2.546.5L 27 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Air Force at Boise State+6.544.5L 19 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Colorado State vs Washington State+9.554.0L 24 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16 Colorado State at Colorado+23.063.0L 35 - 43OY
Sat 9/23 Colorado State at Middle Tennessee+3.550.0W 31 - 23OY
Sat 9/30 Colorado State vs Utah Tech-19
Sat 10/7 Colorado State at Utah State-3.062.0L 24 - 44ON
Sat 10/14 Colorado State vs Boise State+7.560.0W 31 - 30OY
Sat 10/21 Colorado State at UNLV+6.560.0L 23 - 25UY
Sat 10/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+14.547.0L 13 - 30UN
Fri 11/3 Colorado State at Wyoming+6.041.0L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Colorado State vs San Diego State-3.546.5W 22 - 19UN
Sat 11/18 Colorado State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 30 - 20ON
Sat 11/25 Colorado State at Hawai'i-6.054.0L 24 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)27.846% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)18.237% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
CSU#81 (.17)42% (74)26.139% (118)2.7 (124)9345% (38)3073.66 (86)#65 (.18)43% (80)29.642% (61)44% (107)3.4 (31)69.82.11.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1327.824.845.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28
CSU Defense1229.628.242.9%3.41.6 - - - - - 52%47%42%44%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1318.218.639.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
CSU Offense1226.126.841.6%3.662.121399933073.439%59%39%45%16%.17

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Colorado State1226:3420.641%42%7.669.82.11.67.22.8226.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)
CSU Defense1252% (102)42% (61) - - - - .11 (47)3.05 (55)75% (82)12% (24)1.04 (90)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
CSU Offense1239% (126)39% (118)27.792.83.410 (124)-.02 (130)2.7 (124)69% (102)7% (15)0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)
CSU Defense1247% (31)44% (107) - - - - - - 9 (87).29 (87)1.4 (10)32% (69)30% (69).3 (60)4% (126)2.1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
CSU Offense1259% (9)45% (38)25.941.8306.57.311.824 (41)18 (128).35 (43)1.5 (100)33% (86)29% (81).31 (74)8% (124)2 (105)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78   Colorado State: -3.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2   Colorado State: -9.1




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.77 #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 27
Colorado State 21


Total Points: 49

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Air Force13Colorado State21Colorado StateColorado State -6Colorado State43.5Under
202310/28Colorado State13Air Force30Air ForceAir Force -14.5Air Force47.0Under
202211/19Air Force24Colorado State12Air ForceAir Force -22Colorado State43.0Under
202111/13Colorado State21Air Force35Air ForceAir Force -3Air Force45.0Over
201911/16Colorado State21Air Force38Air ForceAir Force -11Air Force63.5Under
201811/22Air Force27Colorado State19Air ForceAir Force -14.5Colorado State64.0Under
201710/28Colorado State28Air Force45Air ForceColorado State -9.5Air Force68.5Over
201611/12Air Force49Colorado State46Air ForceAir Force -6Colorado State54.0Over
201510/17Colorado State38Air Force23Colorado StateAir Force -3.5Colorado State54.5Over
201411/28Air Force27Colorado State24Air ForceColorado State -5Air Force0
201311/30Colorado State58Air Force13Colorado StateColorado State -14Colorado State0
201209/29Air Force42Colorado State21Air Force
201111/26Colorado State21Air Force45Air Force
201010/09Air Force49Colorado State27Air Force
200910/31Colorado State16Air Force34Air Force
200811/08Air Force38Colorado State17Air Force
200710/13Colorado State21Air Force45Air Force
200610/12Air Force24Colorado State21Air Force
200509/29Colorado State41Air Force23Colorado State
200411/20Air Force47Colorado State17Air Force
200310/16Colorado State30Air Force20Colorado State
200210/31Air Force12Colorado State31Colorado State
200111/08Colorado State28Air Force21Colorado State
200011/10Air Force44Colorado State40Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State764 Overs
Air Force1755 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 93 - 81 - 42 - 4
Road Teams9 - 158 - 34 - 24 - 1

(#69) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70


Air Force has won 7 straight
Air Force has won 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force has a good run defense (#76)
Air Force Defensive Line is very good (#123)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCSUAFA
OverallOver#68#7
OffenseOff#73#7
DefenseDef#60#15
Special TeamsST#92#33
PassingPass#86#59
RushingRush#94#46
Run BlockRBLK#33#1
Pass BlockPBLK#51#58
Route RunningWR Rt#43#36
TacklingTkl#51#7
Run DefenseR Def#84#20
Pass Rush DefPRush#20#25
Coverage DefCov#57#37

Rematch from Week 9
Air Force 14.5 (47.0)
Air Force won at Colorado State this year (30-13)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Air Force last year (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2022 (24-12)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | CSU
Depth Chart: AFA | CSU
Rosters: AFA | CSU
(#83) Colorado State Info
Power Rating: -3.77 #83
Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30


Colorado State has lost 1 straight
Colorado State has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (1 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Colorado State Highlights
Colorado State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Colorado State Front 7 is disruptive (#78)

Colorado State Deficiencies
Colorado State has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Colorado State Can Not Run the Ball (#120)
Colorado State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Colorado State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Colorado State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)
Colorado State run game is really bad (#15)


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zachary Larrier406760%7897211.8
John Busha91947%152018.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Michel200935114.754
Zachary Larrier14260564.341
John Lee Eldridge III8459967.165
Dylan Carson6849327.368
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Roznos12374331.284
Cade Harris5179135.865
Brandon Engel10178017.839
Dane Kinamon5126225.294

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Mock935221
Johnathan Youngblood854031
Trey Taylor745104
Jayden Goodwin732105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bo Richter45201081
PJ Ramsey3512852
Peyton Zdroik327520
Alec Mock935221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy352005
Jayden Goodwin732105
Trey Taylor745104

Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi29247062%346022167.4
Clay Millen152463%110014.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Vann Schield9038934.352
Justin Marshall5731125.521
Avery Morrow8126223.213
Kobe Johnson4412812.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tory Horton961136811.876
Dallin Holker (Tr)64767612.042
Justus Ross-Simmons45724316.175
Louis Brown47481510.246

View Colorado State's Full Roster
Colorado State's DC Freddie Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Howell1141033
Chase Wilson1079413
Justin Sanchez874123
Henry Blackburn757310
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Kamara551612101
Marshon Oxley266410
Chase Wilson1079413
Tony Pierce Jr.315320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Howell1141033
Dom Jones320003
Justin Sanchez874123