Air Force at Colorado State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Colorado State Rams

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -14.5 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 30 - Colorado State: 13 (Mountain West)

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AFA 2nd straight Road Game
CSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -6 (SP+ AFA -14.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 29 - CSU: 23 (51)
AFA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 109 miles

Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Colorado State vs Washington State	+9.5	54.0	L 24 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Colorado State at Colorado	+23.0	63.0	L 35 - 43	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Colorado State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	50.0	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Colorado State vs Utah Tech	-19
Sat 10/7	Colorado State at Utah State	-3.0	62.0	L 24 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/14	Colorado State vs Boise State	+7.5	60.0	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Colorado State at UNLV	+6.5	60.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/3	Colorado State at Wyoming	+6.0	41.0	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Colorado State vs San Diego State	-3.5	46.5	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/18	Colorado State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/25	Colorado State at Hawai'i	-6.0	54.0	L 24 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	29.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	30.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
CSU	.05	34%	18.5	36%	2.91	89	32%	197	1.96	.16	43%	30.8	44%	43%	4.24	60.4	1.6	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	29.8	32.2	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
CSU Defense	12	30.8	27.1	43.1%	4.24	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	44%	43%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	30.3	32.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
CSU Offense	12	18.5	19.9	33.7%	1.96	1.6	15	286	89	197	2.8	46%	54%	36%	32%	24%	.05

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
Colorado State	12	29:28	14.7	23%	39%	6.9	60.4	1.6	1.7	5.4	1.8	2	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
CSU Defense	12	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.1	77%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
CSU Offense	12	46%	36%	32.1	89	2.8	4	.04	2.91	61%	18%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
CSU Defense	12	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.22	1.4	31%	30%	.25	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
CSU Offense	12	54%	32%	16.9	26.8	196.8	7.3	11.6	12	11	.08	1.8	39%	23%	.21	6%	2.4

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 300.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 Colorado State: -3.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 Colorado State: -9.1

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.77 #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
2023 Talent Rating: 413.96 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 29
Colorado State 23

Projected Total Points: 51

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Colorado State	21	Air Force	42	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	47.5	Over
2024	10/19	Air Force	13	Colorado State	21	Colorado State -6	Colorado State	43.5	Under
2023	10/28	Colorado State	13	Air Force	30	Air Force -14.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2022	11/19	Air Force	24	Colorado State	12	Air Force -22	Colorado State	43.0	Under
2021	11/13	Colorado State	21	Air Force	35	Air Force -3	Air Force	45.0	Over
2019	11/16	Colorado State	21	Air Force	38	Air Force -11	Air Force	63.5	Under
2018	11/22	Air Force	27	Colorado State	19	Air Force -14.5	Colorado State	64.0	Under
2017	10/28	Colorado State	28	Air Force	45	Colorado State -9.5	Air Force	68.5	Over
2016	11/12	Air Force	49	Colorado State	46	Air Force -6	Colorado State	54.0	Over
2015	10/17	Colorado State	38	Air Force	23	Air Force -3.5	Colorado State	54.5	Over
2014	11/28	Air Force	27	Colorado State	24	Colorado State -5	Air Force	0
2013	11/30	Colorado State	58	Air Force	13	Colorado State -14	Colorado State	0
2012	09/29	Air Force	42	Colorado State	21
2011	11/26	Colorado State	21	Air Force	45
2010	10/09	Air Force	49	Colorado State	27
2009	10/31	Colorado State	16	Air Force	34
2008	11/08	Air Force	38	Colorado State	17
2007	10/13	Colorado State	21	Air Force	45
2006	10/12	Air Force	24	Colorado State	21
2005	09/29	Colorado State	41	Air Force	23
2004	11/20	Air Force	47	Colorado State	17
2003	10/16	Colorado State	30	Air Force	20
2002	10/31	Air Force	12	Colorado State	31
2001	11/08	Colorado State	28	Air Force	21
2000	11/10	Air Force	44	Colorado State	40

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	7	6	5 Overs
Air Force	18	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	1 - 4	2 - 5
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	5 - 2	4 - 1

(#69) AFA at (#83) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#69	#83
SP+SP+	#45	#99
Perf GradeGrade	#9	#84
OffenseOff	#7	#84
DefenseDef	#19	#78
Spec TeamsST	#38	#114
TalentTal	#130	#108
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Air Force Injury Report

Colorado State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#34	#62
SP+SP+	#76	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#64	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#72
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#67	#23
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Colorado State on Offense


CategoryCat	CSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#19
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#78	#34
SP+SP+	#93	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Colorado State Run Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#129	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Colorado State Pass Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#101	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Air Force 14.5 (47.0)
Air Force won at Colorado State this year (30-13)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Colorado State last year (42-21)
Colorado State beat Air Force in 2024 (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	292	470	62%	3460	22	16	7.4
Clay Millen	15	24	63%	110	0	1	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vann Schield	90	389	3	4.3	52
Justin Marshall	57	311	2	5.5	21
Avery Morrow	81	262	2	3.2	13
Kobe Johnson	44	128	1	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Horton	96	1136	8	11.8	76
Dallin Holker (Tr)	64	767	6	12.0	42
Justus Ross-Simmons	45	724	3	16.1	75
Louis Brown	47	481	5	10.2	46

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3
Henry Blackburn	75	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Kamara	55	16	12	10	1
Marshon Oxley	26	6	4	1	0
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Tony Pierce Jr.	31	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Dom Jones	32	0	0	0	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3