South Florida at Navy - 2023 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo South Florida Bulls at Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Navy -4 (54.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
South Florida 44 - Navy: 30  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 32 (33 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NAVY coming off BYE
USF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -1.5   (SP+ USF -4.5)

Projected Score: USF: 28 - NAVY: 27 (55)
NAVY Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 835 miles
Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
South Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 South Florida at Western Kentucky+13.571.5L 24 - 41UN
Sat 9/9 South Florida vs Florida A&M-20.063.0W 38 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 South Florida vs Alabama+34.061.0L 3 - 17UY
Sat 9/23 South Florida vs Rice+2.556.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 9/30 South Florida at Navy+4.054.0W 44 - 30OY
Sat 10/7 South Florida at UAB-3.568.5L 35 - 56ON
Sat 10/14 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-3.061.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 10/21 South Florida at UConn+1.057.0W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 South Florida at Memphis+13.568.5L 50 - 59OY
Sat 11/11 South Florida vs Temple-7.570.5W 27 - 23UN
Fri 11/17 South Florida at UTSA+14.565.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/25 South Florida vs Charlotte-7.556.5W 48 - 14OY
Thu 12/21 South Florida vs Syracuse+3.056.0W 45 - 0UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Navy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+20.549.0L 3 - 42UN
Sat 9/9 Navy vs Wagner-43.549.0W 24 - 0UN
Thu 9/14 Navy at Memphis+12.547.0L 24 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 Navy vs South Florida-4.054.0L 30 - 44ON
Sat 10/7 Navy vs North Texas-6.560.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 10/14 Navy at Charlotte-3.544.0W 14 - 0UY
Sat 10/21 Navy vs Air Force+11.034.0L 6 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Navy at Temple-7.046.0L 18 - 32ON
Sat 11/11 Navy vs UAB+3.552.5W 31 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 Navy vs East Carolina-2.530.5W 10 - 0UY
Sat 11/25 Navy at SMU+20.046.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9 Navy vs Army+2.028.0L 11 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#79 (.17)39% (106)31.939% (112)2.99 (92)18340% (82)2693.63 (89)#97 (.23)40% (41)32.240% (44)40% (47)3.7 (60)65.51.61.9
NAVY#121 (.07)37% (117)17.739% (111)2.86 (108)19532% (131)1062.38 (133)#45 (.15)41% (51)22.437% (23)45% (114)2.84 (7)4612
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1331.93339.2%3.631.6234521832694.152%47%39%40%16%.17
NAVY Defense1222.415.240.6%2.842 - - - - - 50%49%37%45%17%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1332.242.739.8%3.71.9 - - - - - 45%54%40%40%19%.23
NAVY Offense1217.721.337.1%2.381153001951064.371%29%39%32%14%.07

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1328:3523.138%43%7.565.51.61.97.51.8129.9
Navy1231:1514.529%62%5.746125.22.3132.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1352% (49)39% (112)44.6182.84.123 (46).15 (68)2.99 (92)81% (12)11% (92)1.16 (8)
NAVY Defense1250% (67)37% (23) - - - - .02 (15)2.87 (30)67% (34)11% (36)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1345% (16)40% (44) - - - - .11 (44)2.73 (16)69% (44)12% (15)1.19 (125)
NAVY Offense1271% (3)39% (111)45.7194.64.316 (89).07 (110)2.86 (108)72% (83)12% (101)1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1347% (87)40% (82)22.134.4268.87.812.227 (25)11 (68).26 (73)1.6 (64)36% (121)27% (95).31 (76)5% (39)2.3 (15)
NAVY Defense1249% (65)45% (114) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (103)1.6 (75)31% (97)28% (40).34 (83)6% (88)2.2 (113)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1354% (117)40% (47) - - - - - - 14 (21).37 (112)1.8 (128)35% (33)29% (56).37 (96)7% (46)2.3 (126)
NAVY Offense1229% (131)32% (131)8.516.6105.76.412.410 (120)5 (6).11 (121)1.8 (15)31% (61)21% (132).06 (131)2% (3)2 (88)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.66 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -5.66   Navy: -9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -9.5   Navy: -13.9




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.7

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 28
Navy 27


Total Points: 55

Navy Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.3
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09South Florida7Navy28NavyNavy -4.5Navy59.5Under
202309/30Navy30South Florida44South FloridaNavy -4South Florida54.0Over
201910/19Navy35South Florida3NavyNavy -15.5Navy52.0Under
201610/28South Florida52Navy45South FloridaSouth Florida -9Navy66.0Over
201510/31Navy29South Florida17NavyNavy -11Navy51.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy342 Overs
South Florida213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 32 - 20 - 1
Road Teams2 - 33 - 21 - 02 - 2

(#95) South Florida Info
Power Rating: -5.66 #95
Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10


South Florida has won 1 straight
South Florida has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

South Florida Highlights
South Florida offense is explosive (#14)
South Florida Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#38)
South Florida Defensive Line is very good (#111)
South Florida Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
South Florida defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

South Florida Deficiencies
South Florida Fumbles a Lot (#42)
South Florida Commits a Lot of Penalties (#75)
South Florida offense is really bad (#129)
South Florida run game is really bad (#134)
South Florida Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
South Florida gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#36)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNAVYUSF
OverallOver#87#84
OffenseOff#97#91
DefenseDef#53#60
Special TeamsST#42#63
PassingPass#107#60
RushingRush#91#40
Run BlockRBLK#17#98
Pass BlockPBLK#118#81
Route RunningWR Rt#113#78
TacklingTkl#77#94
Run DefenseR Def#54#47
Pass Rush DefPRush#69#41
Coverage DefCov#72#83

Rematch from Week 5
Navy -4.0 (54.0)
South Florida won at Navy this year (44-30)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat South Florida last year (28-7)
South Florida beat Navy in 2023 (44-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USF | NAVY
Depth Chart: USF | NAVY
Rosters: USF | NAVY
(#116) Navy Info
Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80


Navy has lost 1 straight
Navy has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)

Navy Highlights
Navy defense is really good in red zone (#73)
Navy has a good run defense (#23)
Navy Defensive Line is very good (#37)
Navy has a great TO Margin (#54)

Navy Deficiencies
Navy has a really bad Offense
Navy offense is really bad (#5)
Navy offense is not Explosive (#102)
Navy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#31)
Navy run game is really bad (#4)
Navy pass game is really bad (#32)
Navy offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown27642665%329226117.7
Bryce Archie (Tr)71547%53003.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown203809114.060
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)18079784.447
Michel Dukes6335025.630
K'Wan Powell6121513.527
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sean Atkins921054711.588
Naiem Simmons (Tr)39637516.353
Khafre Brown27435516.184
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)27350213.038

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler979235
Daquan Evans6414457
Jaelen Stokes615211
James Gordon Iv589442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daquan Evans6414457
James Gordon Iv589442
Jhalyn Shuler979235
Jonathan Ross477221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tavin Ward383008
Daquan Evans6414457
Jhalyn Shuler979235

Navy's OC Grant Chesnut
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tai Lavatai5610155%701526.9
Xavier Arline234452%320227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Alex Tecza12675856.075
Daba Fofana7228333.920
Xavier Arline7725723.350
Tai Lavatai7524523.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich19382420.169
Brandon Chatman19254013.458
Jayden Umbarger14145110.422
Alex Tecza169706.116

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Ramos948264
Will Harbour768340
Rayuan Lane623117
Mbiti Williams Jr.550003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Reed448551
Landon Robinson285410
Luke Pirris529413
Will Harbour768340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rayuan Lane623117
Colin Ramos948264
Dashaun Peele321004