Navy at Memphis - 2023 Matchup Preview

Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers

Thursday, September 14th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Memphis -12.5 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Memphis 28 - Navy: 24 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Memphis -18 (SP+ MEM -17)
Projected Score: NAVY: 17 - MEM: 35 (52)
MEM Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
NAVY Travel: 788 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (10 - 3) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+20.5	49.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/9	Navy vs Wagner	-43.5	49.0	W 24 - 0	U	N
Thu 9/14	Navy at Memphis	+12.5	47.0	L 24 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	Navy vs South Florida	-4.0	54.0	L 30 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/7	Navy vs North Texas	-6.5	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Navy at Charlotte	-3.5	44.0	W 14 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Navy vs Air Force	+11.0	34.0	L 6 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Navy at Temple	-7.0	46.0	L 18 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/11	Navy vs UAB	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Navy vs East Carolina	-2.5	30.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Navy at SMU	+20.0	46.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Navy vs Army	+2.0	28.0	L 11 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Memphis's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Memphis vs Bethune-Cookman	-49.0	59.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/9	Memphis at Arkansas State	-21.0	57.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Thu 9/14	Memphis vs Navy	-12.5	47.0	W 28 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/23	Memphis vs Missouri	+6.5	52.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Memphis vs Boise State	-3.0	58.0	W 35 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Memphis vs Tulane	+4.5	54.5	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	Memphis at UAB	-7.5	61.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Memphis at North Texas	-6.5	70.0	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Memphis vs South Florida	-13.5	68.5	W 59 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/11	Memphis at Charlotte	-9.5	51.5	W 44 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Memphis vs SMU	+9.5	64.5	L 34 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Memphis at Temple	-13.5	63.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Memphis at Iowa State	+10.5	58.0	W 36 - 26	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	.15	37%	31.5	39%	2.99	241	29%	86	3.56	.24	39%	25	34%	43%	3.72	31.3	1.3	1.7
MEM	.2	44%	32.5	44%	2.9	142	45%	280	4.16	.18	43%	23.2	41%	46%	4.34	36.9	1.2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	25.8	36.7%	3.56	1.3	18	327	241	86	4.1	82%	17%	39%	29%	14%	.15
MEM Defense	13	23.2	24.2	43%	4.34	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	41%	46%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	12	25	30.2	38.6%	3.72	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	34%	43%	25%	.24
MEM Offense	13	32.5	34.2	44.3%	4.16	1.2	23	422	142	280	3.8	47%	52%	44%	45%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	12	34:37	17.6	38%	62%	3.8	31.3	1.3	1.7	6.1	2.8	0	28.3
Memphis	13	30:50	22.5	45%	54%	4.1	36.9	1.2	2.1	4.6	1.6	4	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	12	82%	39%	59	241.2	4.1	22	.16	2.99	75%	12%	1.15
MEM Defense	13	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.96	70%	8%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	12	50%	34%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.6	69%	17%	1.03
MEM Offense	13	47%	44%	37.9	142.4	3.8	30	.12	2.9	74%	10%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	12	17%	29%	4.5	10.5	85.8	8.2	19.1	9	6	.2	2.6	33%	27%	.32	3%	2.1
MEM Defense	13	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.3	1.5	32%	36%	.43	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	12	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.5	1.9	36%	32%	.47	8%	2.3
MEM Offense	13	52%	45%	22.4	35	280.1	8	12.5	23	8	.31	1.5	30%	33%	.39	6%	2.2

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.54 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 30.00 #212
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -9.54 Memphis: 6.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: -13.9 Memphis: 2.8

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 6.22 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 22.45 #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.91 #71
2023 Talent Rating: 626.86 #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Memphis's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Memphis's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #57
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #14
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 35
Navy 17

Projected Total Points: 52

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 11 - 2
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/27	Memphis	17	Navy	28	Memphis -3.5	Navy	57.5	Under
2024	09/21	Navy	56	Memphis	44	Memphis -9.5	Navy	47.0	Over
2023	09/14	Memphis	28	Navy	24	Memphis -12.5	Navy	47.0	Over
2022	09/10	Navy	13	Memphis	37	Memphis -4.5	Memphis	47.5	Over
2021	10/14	Memphis	35	Navy	17	Memphis -11	Memphis	55.5	Under
2020	11/28	Navy	7	Memphis	10	Memphis -13.5	Navy	62.5	Under
2019	09/26	Memphis	35	Navy	23	Memphis -11	Memphis	53.5	Over
2018	09/08	Navy	22	Memphis	21	Memphis -7	Navy	67.0	Under
2017	10/14	Memphis	30	Navy	27	Memphis -3.5	Navy	73.0	Under
2016	10/22	Navy	42	Memphis	28	Memphis -2	Navy	57.0	Over
2015	11/07	Memphis	20	Navy	45	Memphis -8.5	Navy	62.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	6	3	6 Overs
Navy	5	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	6 - 5	2 - 4	4 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	5 - 6	1 - 4	4 - 2

(#116) NAVY at (#36) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	MEM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#116	#36
SP+SP+	#114	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#41
OffenseOff	#114	#22
DefenseDef	#64	#97
Spec TeamsST	#49	#103
TalentTal	#212	#64
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#63

Navy Injury Report

Memphis Injury Report

Navy on Offense


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	MEM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#97
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#126	#71
SP+SP+	#124	#112
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Navy Run Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#125	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#134

Navy Pass Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#74
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Memphis on Offense


CategoryCat	MEM Off	NAVY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#24	#30
SP+SP+	#14	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Memphis Run Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#82	#62
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Memphis Pass Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#88
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Memphis -12.5 (47.0)
Memphis won vs Navy this year (28-24)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Memphis last year (28-17)
Navy beat Memphis in 2024 (56-44)
Memphis beat Navy in 2023 (28-24)

NAVY's OC Grant Chesnut (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tai Lavatai	56	101	55%	701	5	2	6.9
Xavier Arline	23	44	52%	320	2	2	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Tecza	126	758	5	6.0	75
Daba Fofana	72	283	3	3.9	20
Xavier Arline	77	257	2	3.3	50
Tai Lavatai	75	245	2	3.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	19	382	4	20.1	69
Brandon Chatman	19	254	0	13.4	58
Jayden Umbarger	14	145	1	10.4	22
Alex Tecza	16	97	0	6.1	16

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Mbiti Williams Jr.	55	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	44	8	5	5	1
Landon Robinson	28	5	4	1	0
Luke Pirris	52	9	4	1	3
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Dashaun Peele	32	1	0	0	4

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	318	476	67%	3883	32	9	8.2
Tevin Carter	3	5	60%	101	1	1	20.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Watson (Tr)	192	1152	14	6.0	69
Sutton Smith	63	305	2	4.8	26
Seth Henigan	94	274	5	2.9	24
Brandon Thomas	46	172	9	3.7	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	69	1083	4	15.7	85
DeMeer Blankumsee (Tr)	53	901	7	17.0	70
Blake Watson (Tr)	53	485	3	9.2	63
Joseph Scates	33	414	6	12.5	54

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Matt Barnes (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin (Tr)	94	17	3	3	2
Geoff Cantin-Arku	79	5	1	1	2
Simeon Blair (Tr)	63	5	0	2	5
Cameron Smith	57	0	0	2	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin (Tr)	94	17	3	3	2
Gregory Rubin	52	3	3	1	3
Keveionta Spears	17	4	2	1	1
Jaylon Allen	41	7	2	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
DeAgo Brumfeld	42	3	1	10
Cameron Smith	57	0	2	6
Simeon Blair (Tr)	63	5	2	5