Alcorn State at Southern Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview

Alcorn State Braves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Southern Mississippi -24 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Southern Miss 40 - Alcorn State: 14

Braves (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 14 - 40 (14 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -10 (SP+ USM -15)
USM Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (22 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALCN Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alcorn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alcorn State at Southern Miss	+24.0	47.5	L 14 - 40	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alcorn State's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALCN		0%	14	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	40	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM	#109 (.12)	37% (121)	23.2	40% (106)	2.89 (107)	163	34% (126)	191	3.07 (121)	#105 (.24)	42% (69)	35.8	41% (49)	45% (109)	4.15 (103)	48.2	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALCN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM	#132 ()	35% (130)		40% (108)	2.59 (126)	109	30% (133)	175	2.75 (133)	#125 (.3)	44% (97)		45% (89)	43% (93)	4.17 (104)	48.3	2.4	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALCN Offense	1	14	14	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
USM Defense	12	35.8	24	42.2%	4.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	45%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALCN Defense	1	40	40	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
USM Offense	12	23.2	22.2	36.7%	3.07	1.3	20	354	163	191	4	53%	46%	40%	34%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alcorn State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Southern Miss	12	33:15	20.3	38%	44%	6.3	48.2	1.3	1.4	4.5	2.1	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALCN Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
USM Defense	12	53% (106)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.22 (109)	3.21 (94)	67% (30)	10% (76)	1.24 (129)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALCN Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
USM Offense	12	53% (41)	40% (106)	40.5	163.4	4	16 (89)	.13 (80)	2.89 (107)	67% (109)	12% (109)	1.11 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALCN Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
USM Defense	12	46% (27)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (101)	1.7 (101)	31% (93)	33% (103)	.4 (106)	6% (63)	2.3 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALCN Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
USM Offense	12	46% (92)	34% (126)	15.7	30.4	190.7	6.3	12.2	15 (96)	8 (30)	.14 (114)	1.7 (26)	36% (126)	28% (87)	.34 (67)	8% (117)	2.1 (49)

Alcorn State's Power Ratings
Alcorn State's Power Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Offense Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: #167
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Alcorn State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Alcorn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average SWAC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State: Southern Miss: -10.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State: Southern Miss: -15.2

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Alcorn State Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 40 PPG
Defense on Road: 40

Alcorn State's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Southern Miss 31
Alcorn State 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Southern Miss 30
Alcorn State 24

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 32
Alcorn State 22

Total Points: 54

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.2
Defense: 35.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Southern Miss	40	Alcorn State	14	Southern Mississippi -24	Southern Miss	47.5	Over
2019	08/31	Southern Miss	38	Alcorn State	10	Southern Mississippi -27	Southern Miss	55.0	Under
2014	09/06	Southern Miss	26	Alcorn State	20	Southern Mississippi -18	Alcorn State	0
2009	09/05	Southern Miss	52	Alcorn State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	4	2	1 Overs
Alcorn State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#NR) ALCN at (#119) USM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALCN	USM
Power RatePwr	NR	#119
SP+SP+	NR	#118
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#123
OffenseOff	NR	#120
DefenseDef	NR	#105
Spec TeamsST	NR	#108
TalentTal	#167	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#75

Alcorn State Injury Report

Southern Miss Injury Report

Alcorn State on Offense


CategoryCat	ALCN Off	USM Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	#69
ExplosiveExp	NR	#125
PPAPPA	NR	#105
PowerPwr	NR	#102
SP+SP+	NR	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	#103
HavocHav	NR	#73

Alcorn State Run Game


CategoryCat	ALCN Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	NR	#47
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#49
Run ExplRExp	NR	#129
PPAExp	NR	#109
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#94
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#82
TackleTak	-	#125

Alcorn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALCN Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#109
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#101
PPAExp	NR	#101
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#53
F7 HavocF7	NR	#76
DB HavocDB	NR	#63

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	ALCN Def
Perf GradePerf	#120	NR
SuccessSuc	#121	NR
ExplosiveExp	#24	NR
PPAPPA	#109	NR
PowerPwr	#116	NR
SP+SP+	#85	NR
Pts POPPO	#121	NR
HavocHav	#117	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	ALCN Def
Run GameRun	#55	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	NR
Run ExplRExp	#19	NR
PPAExp	#80	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#109	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	ALCN Def
Pass GamePass	#123	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#126	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#26	NR
PPAExp	#114	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#117	NR
F7 HavocF7	#109	NR
DB HavocDB	#117	NR

Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ALCN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Southern Miss -24.0 (47.5)
Southern Miss won vs Alcorn State this year (40-14)

Previous Matchups
Southern Miss beat Alcorn State in 2023 (40-14)

ALCN's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Alcorn State's Full Roster

ALCN's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Terreance Ellis	48	0	1
Edwin Summerour	11	0	0
Geoffrey McKelton	11	1	0
Jaquez Dew	10	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Stemarion Edwards	10	3	1	0
Terreance Ellis	48	0	0	1
Kobe Towns	5	1	0	0
Tyran Warren	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Andrew Smith	4	2
Terreance Ellis	48	1
Kole Williams	6	1

USM's OC Sam Gregg (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Wiles (Tr)	158	290	55%	1916	11	7	6.6
Ethan Crawford	19	38	50%	246	3	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Frank Gore Jr.	231	1131	10	4.9	75
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	76	429	2	5.6	59
Kenyon Clay	40	179	1	4.5	28
Ethan Crawford	42	96	1	2.3	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakarius Caston	33	621	6	18.8	80
Latreal Jones	36	498	3	13.8	43
Tiaquelin Mims	39	445	2	11.4	37
Frank Gore Jr.	27	221	3	8.2	33

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Dan O'Brien (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	72	1	1	0	1
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	0	5
Hayes Maples	51	1	1	3	0
Swayze Bozeman	51	4	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalil Clemons	26	10	6	6	1
Josh Ratcliff	28	4	4	0	0
Averie Habas	13	3	3	1	0
Ja'Len Sims	28	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	5
Markel McLaurin	31	3	2	5
MJ Daniels (Tr)	26	0	0	4