California at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (5:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -26.5 (61.5) (-2200) Open: -24.0 | 59.0
Oregon 63 - California: 19 (Pac-12)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -28.5 (SP+ ORE -24)
Projected Score: CAL: 15 - ORE: 43 (58)
ORE Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
CAL Travel: 430 miles

Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	California at North Texas	-5.0	53.5	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	California vs Auburn	+5.0	55.5	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	California vs Idaho	-14.5	52.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	California at Washington	+21.0	55.5	L 32 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/30	California vs Arizona State	-13.0	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/7	California vs Oregon State	+7.5	51.0	L 40 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/14	California at Utah	+9.0	42.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	California vs USC	+10.5	67.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Sat 11/4	California at Oregon	+26.5	61.5	L 19 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/11	California vs Washington State	-1.5	58.5	W 42 - 39	O	Y
Sat 11/18	California at Stanford	-6.5	52.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	California at UCLA	+9.5	50.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/16	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Oregon's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oregon vs Portland State	-48.0	64.5	W 81 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon at Texas Tech	-4.5	70.0	W 38 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon vs Hawai'i	-38.5	67.5	W 55 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Oregon vs Colorado	-21.0	70.0	W 42 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oregon at Stanford	-27.0	59.5	W 42 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Oregon at Washington	+3.0	67.0	L 33 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oregon vs Washington State	-19.5	60.5	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/28	Oregon at Utah	-6.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Oregon vs California	-26.5	61.5	W 63 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Oregon vs USC	-12.5	78.5	W 36 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oregon at Arizona State	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Oregon vs Oregon State	-14.0	61.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/1	Oregon vs Washington	-9.0	67.0	L 31 - 34	U	N
Mon 1/1	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	.19	39%	25.3	40%	2.93	97	38%	268	3.81	.2	50%	27.2	51%	49%	3.95	44.6	1	2
ORE	.38	56%	36.9	58%	3.59	216	54%	285	4.4	.22	45%	17.9	45%	46%	4.15	57.2	0.9	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	12	25.3	23.7	38.6%	3.81	1	19	365	97	268	3.6	37%	62%	40%	38%	16%	.19
ORE Defense	13	17.9	16.8	45.3%	4.15	2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	45%	46%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	12	27.2	29.6	49.7%	3.95	2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	51%	49%	13%	.2
ORE Offense	13	36.9	43.1	55.9%	4.4	0.9	26	501	216	285	5.5	53%	47%	58%	54%	11%	.38

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	12	28:43	19.3	35%	55%	5.3	44.6	1	2	4.4	1.3	1	25.8
Oregon	13	31:21	26.2	46%	63%	6.8	57.2	0.9	2	3.9	1.3	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	12	37%	40%	26.5	96.5	3.6	10	.12	2.93	63%	11%	1.05
ORE Defense	13	43%	45%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.02	68%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	12	47%	51%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.42	77%	8%	0.77
ORE Offense	13	53%	58%	39.1	215.7	5.5	34	.37	3.59	83%	6%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	12	62%	38%	24.3	38.8	268.1	6.9	11.1	23	9	.27	1.6	36%	29%	.37	6%	2.2
ORE Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.28	1.4	30%	37%	.48	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	12	53%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.32	1.4	28%	28%	.25	5%	2
ORE Offense	13	47%	54%	23.7	33.2	284.8	8.6	12	30	9	.4	1.4	25%	38%	.48	4%	1.9

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: -1.90 #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
2023 Talent Rating: 681.14 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
California: -1.90 Oregon: 28.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 1.1 Oregon: 25.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.15 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 874.74 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 43
California 15

Projected Total Points: 58

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Oregon	63	California	19	Oregon -26.5	Oregon	61.5	Over
2022	10/29	California	24	Oregon	42	Oregon -16.5	Oregon	56.5	Over
2021	10/15	Oregon	24	California	17	Oregon -13.5	California	53.5	Under
2020	12/05	California	21	Oregon	17	Oregon -9.5	California	59.0	Under
2019	10/05	Oregon	17	California	7	Oregon -21.5	California	46.5	Under
2018	09/29	California	24	Oregon	42	Oregon -2	Oregon	58.5	Over
2017	09/30	Oregon	45	California	24	Oregon -17	Oregon	66.5	Over
2016	10/21	California	52	Oregon	49	California -3	Push	90.0	Over
2015	11/07	Oregon	44	California	28	Oregon -7.5	Oregon	75.5	Under
2014	10/24	California	41	Oregon	59	Oregon -16	Oregon	0
2013	09/28	Oregon	55	California	16	Oregon -33	Oregon	0
2012	11/10	California	17	Oregon	59
2011	10/06	Oregon	43	California	15
2010	11/13	California	13	Oregon	15
2009	09/26	Oregon	42	California	3
2008	11/01	California	26	Oregon	16
2007	09/29	Oregon	24	California	31
2006	10/07	California	45	Oregon	24
2005	11/05	Oregon	27	California	20
2004	11/06	California	28	Oregon	27
2003	11/08	Oregon	21	California	17
2001	10/13	California	7	Oregon	48
2000	11/10	Oregon	25	California	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	17	7	5 Overs
California	6	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 7	5 - 5	4 - 2	1 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 16	5 - 5	3 - 1	2 - 4

(#75) CAL at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#75	#2
SP+SP+	#61	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#5
OffenseOff	#72	#1
DefenseDef	#99	#20
Spec TeamsST	#125	#29
TalentTal	#45	#10
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#12

California Injury Report

Oregon Injury Report

California on Offense


CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#20
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#75	#18
SP+SP+	#32	#19
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

California Run Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#31	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

California Pass Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#112	#45
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oregon on Offense


CategoryCat	ORE Off	CAL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#1	#99
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#2	#101
SP+SP+	#1	#85
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon Run Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#2	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Oregon Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#37
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Improving CFP Hopefuls
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Oregon -26.5 (61.5)
Oregon won vs California this year (63-19)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat California in 2023 (63-19)

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	153	243	63%	1708	14	10	7.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)	51	97	53%	553	5	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadyn Ott	245	1310	12	5.3	66
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)	70	365	7	5.2	26
Ashton Stredick	42	200	2	4.8	41
Jaivian Thomas	18	110	1	6.1	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Hunter	63	709	7	11.3	50
Trond Grizzell	39	590	5	15.1	54
Jack Endries	35	408	2	11.7	32
Taj Davis (Tr)	38	393	3	10.3	27

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Craig Woodson	80	4	1	0	4
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Reese (Tr)	33	9	8	4	3
Xavier Carlton	50	6	5	5	2
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3
Nathan Burrell	23	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Lu-Magia Hearns III	27	0	0	0	6

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bo Nix	364	470	77%	4508	45	3	9.6
Ty Thompson	24	31	77%	297	4	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mar'Keise Irving	186	1180	11	6.3	56
Jordan James	107	759	11	7.1	37
Bo Nix	54	234	6	4.3	44
Noah Whittington	20	146	2	7.3	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Troy Franklin	81	1383	14	17.1	84
Tez Johnson (Tr)	86	1182	10	13.7	77
Traeshon Holden (Tr)	37	452	6	12.2	63
Gary Bryant Jr. (Tr)	30	442	4	14.7	71

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Jeffrey Bassa	71	4	0	12	1
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Steve Stephens	56	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Popo Aumavae	18	3	3	3	0
Jordan Burch (Tr)	34	8	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Nikko Reed (Tr)	25	2	1	0	7