Oregon State at California - 2023 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo Oregon State Beavers at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (10:00 PM EDT)
Oregon State -7.5 (51.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Oregon State 52 - California: 40  (Pac-12)

 
Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (31 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CAL 2nd straight Home Game
CAL is playing their 6th straight game
ORST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Oregon State -11  (SP+ ORST -13.5)
Projected Score: ORST: 33 - CAL: 22 (54)
ORST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ORST Travel: 465 miles
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 30 - 33 (33 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Oregon State at San José State-14.056.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/9 Oregon State vs UC Davis-24.057.0W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Oregon State vs San Diego State-24.548.5W 26 - 9UN
Sat 9/23 Oregon State at Washington State-3.058.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 9/29 Oregon State vs Utah-4.043.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/7 Oregon State at California-7.551.0W 52 - 40OY
Sat 10/14 Oregon State vs UCLA-3.553.5W 36 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Oregon State at Arizona-3.057.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Oregon State at Colorado-13.060.5W 26 - 19UN
Sat 11/11 Oregon State vs Stanford-21.551.5W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/18 Oregon State vs Washington-1.562.5L 20 - 22UN
Fri 11/24 Oregon State at Oregon+14.061.5L 7 - 31UN
Fri 12/29 Oregon State vs Notre Dame+5.540.5L 8 - 40ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 California at North Texas-5.053.5W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 California vs Auburn+5.055.5L 10 - 14UY
Sat 9/16 California vs Idaho-14.552.5W 31 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 California at Washington+21.055.5L 32 - 59ON
Sat 9/30 California vs Arizona State-13.047.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/7 California vs Oregon State+7.551.0L 40 - 52ON
Sat 10/14 California at Utah+9.042.5L 14 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 California vs USC+10.567.5L 49 - 50OY
Sat 11/4 California at Oregon+26.561.5L 19 - 63ON
Sat 11/11 California vs Washington State-1.558.5W 42 - 39OY
Sat 11/18 California at Stanford-6.552.5W 27 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 California at UCLA+9.550.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 12/16 California vs Texas Tech+3.554.5L 14 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#13 (.32)48% (14)31.852% (6)3.24 (43)16745% (39)2424.78 (11)#39 (.14)44% (91)22.946% (102)43% (81)3.42 (37)50.111.5
CAL#61 (.21)41% (88)30.244% (59)3.39 (13)17338% (103)2184.12 (46)#87 (.21)45% (112)32.847% (103)44% (108)4.4 (118)44.82.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)47% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)50% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1331.83148.1%4.781214091672424.952%47%52%45%14%.32
CAL Defense1332.832.245%4.42.2 - - - - - 47%52%47%44%16%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1322.928.743.8%3.421.5 - - - - - 46%53%46%43%18%.14
CAL Offense1330.232.740.5%4.122.2213911732184.550%49%44%38%18%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1330:3921.439%57%5.550.111.55.52.7229.7
California1328:4021.439%52%5.544.82.22.24.51.9131.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1352% (51)52% (6)34.2167.14.926 (30).23 (26)3.24 (43)73% (79)9% (43)0.97 (85)
CAL Defense1347% (32)47% (103) - - - - .14 (67)3.1 (67)73% (66)9% (98)0.98 (55)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1346% (20)46% (102) - - - - .09 (35)2.9 (36)84% (122)10% (61)0.84 (10)
CAL Offense1350% (68)44% (59)38.2173.14.526 (30).24 (23)3.39 (13)75% (60)11% (86)1.11 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1347% (82)45% (39)17.129.2242.28.314.226 (31)8 (30).44 (21)1.8 (17)32% (77)37% (17).56 (9)6% (48)2.2 (24)
CAL Defense1352% (103)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (37).3 (88)1.5 (34)27% (129)35% (121).36 (91)7% (40)1.8 (10)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1353% (114)43% (81) - - - - - - 12 (37).26 (60)1.6 (61)33% (54)33% (111).3 (59)7% (22)2 (46)
CAL Offense1349% (64)38% (103)19.833.4218.26.51122 (61)16 (121).21 (92)1.6 (49)33% (84)27% (96).33 (70)7% (97)2 (67)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36  #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78  #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19  #39
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7  #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36   California: 2.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7   California: 1.1




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 2.1  #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66  #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83  #101
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.7

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon State 33
California 22

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon State 29
California 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Oregon State 32
California 29

Total Points: 61
California Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.7
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Oregon State15California34Oregon State -3California51.5Under
202410/26California44Oregon State7California -13.0California51.0Push
202310/07California40Oregon State52Oregon State -7.5Oregon State51.0Over
202211/12Oregon State38California10Oregon State -11.5Oregon State47.0Over
202110/30California39Oregon State25Oregon State -2.5California56.5Over
202011/21Oregon State31California27California -1.0Oregon State46.5Over
201910/19California17Oregon State21California -10Oregon State51.0Under
201810/20Oregon State7California49California -8.5California58.0Under
201711/04California37Oregon State23California -7California54.0Over
201610/08Oregon State47California44California -10Oregon State70.0Over
201511/14California54Oregon State24California -17.5California64.0Over
201411/01Oregon State31California45Oregon State -4.5California0
201310/19California17Oregon State49Oregon State -7.5Oregon State0
201211/17Oregon State62California14
201111/12California23Oregon State6
201010/30Oregon State35California7
200911/07California14Oregon State31
200811/15Oregon State34California21
200710/13California28Oregon State31
200609/30Oregon State13California41
200510/15California20Oregon State23
200410/02Oregon State7California49
200310/04California21Oregon State35
200210/26Oregon State24California13
200110/27Oregon State19California10
200011/03California32Oregon State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California1077 Overs
Oregon State1663 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 137 - 64 - 33 - 3
Road Teams13 - 136 - 73 - 33 - 4

(#17) ORST at (#75) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTCAL
Power RatePwr #17 #75
SP+SP+ #17 #61
Perf GradeGrade #19 #93
OffenseOff #12 #72
DefenseDef #58 #99
Spec TeamsST #57 #125
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #66 #43
Oregon State on Offense
CategoryCat
ORST OffCAL Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #99
SuccessSuc #14 #112
ExplosiveExp #54 #47
PPAPPA #13 #87
PowerPwr #10 #101
SP+SP+ #22 #85
Pts POPPO #11 #118
HavocHav #42 #75
Oregon State Run Game
CategoryCat
ORST OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #29 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #103
Run ExplRExp #85 #55
PPAExp #26 #67
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #67
Stuff RateStuff #97 #93
TackleTak -  #120
Oregon State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ORST OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #43 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #108
Pass ExplPExl #17 #34
PPAExp #21 #88
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #37
F7 HavocF7 #43 #98
DB HavocDB #48 #40
California on Offense
CategoryCatCAL OffORST Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #58
SuccessSuc #88 #91
ExplosiveExp #34 #36
PPAPPA #61 #39
PowerPwr #75 #39
SP+SP+ #32 #32
Pts POPPO #46 #37
HavocHav #93 #38
California Run Game
CategoryCat
CAL OffORST Def
Run GameRun #31 #52
Run SuccessRSuc #59 #102
Run ExplRExp #20 #10
PPAExp #23 #35
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #13 #36
Stuff RateStuff #31 #58
TackleTak -  #136
California Pass Game
CategoryCatCAL OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #77 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #81
Pass ExplPExl #49 #61
PPAExp #92 #60
Pass Block/RushP Blk #112 #105
F7 HavocF7 #86 #61
DB HavocDB #97 #22
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Oregon State 7.5 (51.0)
Oregon State won at California this year (52-40)

Previous Matchups
California beat Oregon State last year (44-7)
Oregon State beat California in 2023 (52-40)
Oregon State beat California in 2022 (38-10)

  
ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)18031557%26382178.4
Aidan Chiles243569%309408.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez194118596.164
Deshaun Fenwick9651555.438
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)6821963.226
Silas Bolden98429.345
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Silas Bolden54746513.850
Anthony Gould44718216.375
Jack Velling29438815.141
Jesiah Irish18302116.838

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold1067230
Kitan Oladapo733117
Akili Arnold622126
Calvin Hart Jr.617410
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.28101042
John McCartan479542
Calvin Hart Jr.617410
Joe Golden424420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Robinson331108
Ryan Cooper Jr.372117
Jermod McCoy311017

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza15324363%170814107.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)519753%553525.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadyn Ott2451310125.366
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)7036575.226
Ashton Stredick4220024.841
Jaivian Thomas1811016.127
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Hunter63709711.350
Trond Grizzell39590515.154
Jack Endries35408211.732
Taj Davis (Tr)38393310.327

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Craig Woodson804104
Cade Uluave677203
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Reese (Tr)339843
Xavier Carlton506552
Cade Uluave677203
Nathan Burrell233211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Lu-Magia Hearns III270006