Oregon State at California - 2023 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers at California Golden Bears

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (10:00 PM EDT)
Oregon State -7.5 (51.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Oregon State 52 - California: 40 (Pac-12)

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CAL 2nd straight Home Game
CAL is playing their 6th straight game
ORST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Oregon State -11 (SP+ ORST -13.5)
Projected Score: ORST: 31 - CAL: 20 (50)
ORST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ORST Travel: 465 miles

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
CAL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

California's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	California at North Texas	-5.0	53.5	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	California vs Auburn	+5.0	55.5	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	California vs Idaho	-14.5	52.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	California at Washington	+21.0	55.5	L 32 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/30	California vs Arizona State	-13.0	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/7	California vs Oregon State	+7.5	51.0	L 40 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/14	California at Utah	+9.0	42.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	California vs USC	+10.5	67.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Sat 11/4	California at Oregon	+26.5	61.5	L 19 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/11	California vs Washington State	-1.5	58.5	W 42 - 39	O	Y
Sat 11/18	California at Stanford	-6.5	52.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	California at UCLA	+9.5	50.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/16	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	.25	48%	17.6	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	29.4	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6
CAL	.19	39%	25.3	40%	2.93	97	38%	268	3.81	.2	50%	27.2	51%	49%	3.95	44.6	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	17.6	11.8	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25
CAL Defense	12	27.2	24.3	49.7%	3.95	2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	51%	49%	13%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	29.4	35.2	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1
CAL Offense	12	25.3	27.2	38.6%	3.81	1	19	365	97	268	3.6	37%	62%	40%	38%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7
California	12	28:43	19.3	35%	55%	5.3	44.6	1	2	4.4	1.3	1	25.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94
CAL Defense	12	47%	51%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.42	77%	8%	0.77

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02
CAL Offense	12	37%	40%	26.5	96.5	3.6	10	.12	2.93	63%	11%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9
CAL Defense	12	53%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.32	1.4	28%	28%	.25	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2
CAL Offense	12	62%	38%	24.3	38.8	268.1	6.9	11.1	23	9	.27	1.6	36%	29%	.37	6%	2.2

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 653.16 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36 California: 2.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7 California: 1.1

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 2.1 #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
2023 Talent Rating: 681.14 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 31
California 20

Projected Total Points: 50

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Oregon State	15	California	34	Oregon State -3	California	51.5	Under
2024	10/26	California	44	Oregon State	7	California -13.0	California	51.0	Push
2023	10/07	California	40	Oregon State	52	Oregon State -7.5	Oregon State	51.0	Over
2022	11/12	Oregon State	38	California	10	Oregon State -11.5	Oregon State	47.0	Over
2021	10/30	California	39	Oregon State	25	Oregon State -2.5	California	56.5	Over
2020	11/21	Oregon State	31	California	27	California -1.0	Oregon State	46.5	Over
2019	10/19	California	17	Oregon State	21	California -10	Oregon State	51.0	Under
2018	10/20	Oregon State	7	California	49	California -8.5	California	58.0	Under
2017	11/04	California	37	Oregon State	23	California -7	California	54.0	Over
2016	10/08	Oregon State	47	California	44	California -10	Oregon State	70.0	Over
2015	11/14	California	54	Oregon State	24	California -17.5	California	64.0	Over
2014	11/01	Oregon State	31	California	45	Oregon State -4.5	California	0
2013	10/19	California	17	Oregon State	49	Oregon State -7.5	Oregon State	0
2012	11/17	Oregon State	62	California	14
2011	11/12	California	23	Oregon State	6
2010	10/30	Oregon State	35	California	7
2009	11/07	California	14	Oregon State	31
2008	11/15	Oregon State	34	California	21
2007	10/13	California	28	Oregon State	31
2006	09/30	Oregon State	13	California	41
2005	10/15	California	20	Oregon State	23
2004	10/02	Oregon State	7	California	49
2003	10/04	California	21	Oregon State	35
2002	10/26	Oregon State	24	California	13
2001	10/27	Oregon State	19	California	10
2000	11/03	California	32	Oregon State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
California	10	7	7 Overs
Oregon State	16	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4

(#17) ORST at (#75) CAL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORST	CAL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#17	#75
SP+SP+	#17	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#19	#93
OffenseOff	#12	#72
DefenseDef	#58	#99
Spec TeamsST	#57	#125
TalentTal	#54	#45
Blue ChipsBC%	#66	#43

Oregon State Injury Report

California Injury Report

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	CAL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#99
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#10	#101
SP+SP+	#22	#85
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#29	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#37
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

California on Offense


CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#58
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#75	#39
SP+SP+	#32	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

California Run Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#31	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#136

California Pass Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#112	#105
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Oregon State 7.5 (51.0)
Oregon State won at California this year (52-40)

Previous Matchups
California beat Oregon State last year (34-15)
California beat Oregon State in 2024 (44-7)
Oregon State beat California in 2023 (52-40)

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	180	315	57%	2638	21	7	8.4
Aidan Chiles	24	35	69%	309	4	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	194	1185	9	6.1	64
Deshaun Fenwick	96	515	5	5.4	38
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	68	219	6	3.2	26
Silas Bolden	9	84	2	9.3	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Silas Bolden	54	746	5	13.8	50
Anthony Gould	44	718	2	16.3	75
Jack Velling	29	438	8	15.1	41
Jesiah Irish	18	302	1	16.8	38

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	106	7	2	3	0
Kitan Oladapo	73	3	1	1	7
Akili Arnold	62	2	1	2	6
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.	28	10	10	4	2
John McCartan	47	9	5	4	2
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0
Joe Golden	42	4	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Robinson	33	1	1	0	8
Ryan Cooper Jr.	37	2	1	1	7
Jermod McCoy	31	1	0	1	7

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	153	243	63%	1708	14	10	7.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)	51	97	53%	553	5	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadyn Ott	245	1310	12	5.3	66
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)	70	365	7	5.2	26
Ashton Stredick	42	200	2	4.8	41
Jaivian Thomas	18	110	1	6.1	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Hunter	63	709	7	11.3	50
Trond Grizzell	39	590	5	15.1	54
Jack Endries	35	408	2	11.7	32
Taj Davis (Tr)	38	393	3	10.3	27

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Craig Woodson	80	4	1	0	4
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Reese (Tr)	33	9	8	4	3
Xavier Carlton	50	6	5	5	2
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3
Nathan Burrell	23	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Lu-Magia Hearns III	27	0	0	0	6