California at Stanford - 2023 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (6:30 PM EST)
California -6.5 (52.5) (0) Open: 0.0
California 27 - Stanford: 15 (Pac-12)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 30 - 33 (31 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
STAN is playing their 6th straight game
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: California -10 (SP+ CAL -13.5)
Projected Score: CAL: 34 - STAN: 24 (57)
CAL Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
CAL Travel: 31 miles

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 21 - 38 (18 - 37 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.4 - 9.6 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
STAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	California at North Texas	-5.0	53.5	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	California vs Auburn	+5.0	55.5	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	California vs Idaho	-14.5	52.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	California at Washington	+21.0	55.5	L 32 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/30	California vs Arizona State	-13.0	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/7	California vs Oregon State	+7.5	51.0	L 40 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/14	California at Utah	+9.0	42.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	California vs USC	+10.5	67.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Sat 11/4	California at Oregon	+26.5	61.5	L 19 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/11	California vs Washington State	-1.5	58.5	W 42 - 39	O	Y
Sat 11/18	California at Stanford	-6.5	52.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	California at UCLA	+9.5	50.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/16	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Stanford's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Stanford at Hawai'i	-2.0	54.0	W 37 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Stanford at USC	+28.5	70.5	L 10 - 56	U	N
Sat 9/16	Stanford vs Sacramento State	-7.0	60.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Stanford vs Arizona	+13.0	60.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Stanford vs Oregon	+27.0	59.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Stanford at Colorado	+13.0	59.0	W 46 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Stanford vs UCLA	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Stanford vs Washington	+27.5	62.0	L 33 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Stanford at Washington State	+13.0	59.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Stanford at Oregon State	+21.5	51.5	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/18	Stanford vs California	+6.5	52.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Stanford vs Notre Dame	+26.0	50.5	L 23 - 56	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#61 (.21)	41% (88)	30.2	44% (59)	3.39 (13)	173	38% (103)	218	4.12 (46)	#87 (.21)	45% (112)	32.8	47% (103)	44% (108)	4.4 (118)	44.8	2.2	2.2
STAN	#114 (.1)	38% (114)	20.6	41% (95)	2.61 (130)	119	36% (114)	233	3.4 (101)	#133 (.35)	51% (133)	37.7	56% (133)	48% (129)	5.22 (133)	59.1	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)		41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)		45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	30.2	30.5	40.5%	4.12	2.2	21	391	173	218	4.5	50%	49%	44%	38%	18%	.21
STAN Defense	12	37.7	37.1	51.4%	5.22	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	56%	48%	11%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	32.8	33.2	45%	4.4	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	47%	44%	16%	.21
STAN Offense	12	20.6	18.1	37.6%	3.4	1.2	20	352	119	233	3.4	42%	57%	41%	36%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	28:40	21.4	39%	52%	5.5	44.8	2.2	2.2	4.5	1.9	1	31.2
Stanford	12	31:16	19.5	36%	33%	6.3	59.1	1.2	1	4.3	1.9	0	27.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	50% (68)	44% (59)	38.2	173.1	4.5	26 (30)	.24 (23)	3.39 (13)	75% (60)	11% (86)	1.11 (20)
STAN Defense	12	45% (13)	56% (133)	-	-	-	-	.25 (120)	3.45 (124)	76% (87)	7% (129)	0.9 (25)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (32)	47% (103)	-	-	-	-	.14 (67)	3.1 (67)	73% (66)	9% (98)	0.98 (55)
STAN Offense	12	42% (114)	41% (95)	34.5	118.8	3.4	15 (100)	.06 (114)	2.61 (130)	71% (90)	13% (122)	0.99 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	49% (64)	38% (103)	19.8	33.4	218.2	6.5	11	22 (61)	16 (121)	.21 (92)	1.6 (49)	33% (84)	27% (96)	.33 (70)	7% (97)	2 (67)
STAN Defense	12	55% (124)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.45 (130)	1.7 (89)	29% (125)	41% (133)	.66 (133)	4% (130)	2.1 (93)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	52% (103)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.3 (88)	1.5 (34)	27% (129)	35% (121)	.36 (91)	7% (40)	1.8 (10)
STAN Offense	12	57% (17)	36% (114)	19.4	35.6	233	6.6	12	11 (117)	10 (56)	.16 (106)	1.5 (84)	36% (120)	29% (77)	.28 (87)	8% (126)	2 (71)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: -1.90 #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
California: -1.90 Stanford: -10.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 1.1 Stanford: -12.3

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -10.535 #129
Stanford's Offense Rating: 12.41 #107
Stanford's Defense Rating: 22.01 #133
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #36
Stanford's 2023 Expected Record: 2.40 - 9.60
Stanford's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #109
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #94
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

California Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
California 34
Stanford 24

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Stanford 33
California 32

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
California 34
Stanford 26

Total Points: 60

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.1
Defense: 37.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.1

Stanford's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Stanford	31	California	10	California -4.5	Stanford	47.5	Under
2024	11/23	California	24	Stanford	21	California -15	Stanford	53.5	Under
2023	11/18	Stanford	15	California	27	California -6.5	California	52.5	Under
2022	11/19	California	27	Stanford	20	California -5	California	46.0	Over
2021	11/20	Stanford	11	California	41	California -2.5	California	46.0	Over
2020	11/27	California	23	Stanford	24	Stanford -2	California	51.0	Under
2019	11/23	Stanford	20	California	24	California -1	California	41.5	Over
2018	12/01	California	13	Stanford	23	Stanford -3	Stanford	46.5	Under
2017	11/18	Stanford	17	California	14	Stanford -14	California	56.5	Under
2016	11/19	California	31	Stanford	45	Stanford -11	Stanford	60.5	Over
2015	11/21	Stanford	35	California	22	Stanford -12.5	Stanford	63.0	Under
2014	11/22	California	17	Stanford	38	Stanford -6.5	Stanford	0
2013	11/23	Stanford	63	California	13	Stanford -28.5	Stanford	0
2012	10/20	California	3	Stanford	21
2011	11/19	Stanford	31	California	28
2010	11/20	California	14	Stanford	48
2009	11/21	Stanford	28	California	34
2008	11/22	California	37	Stanford	16
2007	12/01	Stanford	20	California	13
2006	12/02	California	26	Stanford	17
2005	11/19	Stanford	3	California	27
2004	11/20	California	41	Stanford	6
2003	11/22	Stanford	16	California	28
2001	11/17	Stanford	35	California	28
2000	11/17	California	30	Stanford	36

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Stanford	14	7	4 Overs
California	11	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	5 - 8	3 - 2	2 - 6
Road Teams	13 - 12	8 - 5	6 - 2	2 - 3

(#75) CAL at (#129) STAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	STAN
Power RatePwr	#75	#129
SP+SP+	#61	#109
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#133
OffenseOff	#72	#118
DefenseDef	#99	#134
Spec TeamsST	#125	#80
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#36

California Injury Report

Stanford Injury Report

California on Offense


CategoryCat	CAL Off	STAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#134
SuccessSuc	#88	#133
ExplosiveExp	#34	#63
PPAPPA	#61	#133
PowerPwr	#75	#133
SP+SP+	#32	#117
Pts POPPO	#46	#133
HavocHav	#93	#133

California Run Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#31	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#133
Run ExplRExp	#20	#25
PPAExp	#23	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#98
TackleTak	-	#76

California Pass Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#89
PPAExp	#92	#130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#112	#132
F7 HavocF7	#86	#129
DB HavocDB	#97	#130

Stanford on Offense


CategoryCat	STAN Off	CAL Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	#99
SuccessSuc	#114	#112
ExplosiveExp	#68	#47
PPAPPA	#114	#87
PowerPwr	#107	#101
SP+SP+	#94	#85
Pts POPPO	#101	#118
HavocHav	#128	#75

Stanford Run Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#121	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	#103
Run ExplRExp	#74	#55
PPAExp	#114	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#93
TackleTak	-	#120

Stanford Pass Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#34
PPAExp	#106	#88
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#121	#37
F7 HavocF7	#122	#98
DB HavocDB	#126	#40

Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 62° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.016

Rematch from Week 12
California 6.5 (52.5)
California won at Stanford this year (27-15)

Previous Matchups
California beat Stanford last year (24-21)
California beat Stanford in 2023 (27-15)
California beat Stanford in 2022 (27-20)

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	153	243	63%	1708	14	10	7.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)	51	97	53%	553	5	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadyn Ott	245	1310	12	5.3	66
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)	70	365	7	5.2	26
Ashton Stredick	42	200	2	4.8	41
Jaivian Thomas	18	110	1	6.1	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Hunter	63	709	7	11.3	50
Trond Grizzell	39	590	5	15.1	54
Jack Endries	35	408	2	11.7	32
Taj Davis (Tr)	38	393	3	10.3	27

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Craig Woodson	80	4	1	0	4
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Reese (Tr)	33	9	8	4	3
Xavier Carlton	50	6	5	5	2
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3
Nathan Burrell	23	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Lu-Magia Hearns III	27	0	0	0	6

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	191	327	58%	2247	11	8	6.9
Justin Lamson (Tr)	38	88	43%	504	0	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Lamson (Tr)	120	334	5	2.8	49
Ashton Daniels	110	296	3	2.7	24
E.J. Smith	53	216	1	4.1	34
Casey Filkins	38	215	1	5.7	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	62	1013	6	16.3	97
Tiger Bachmeier	36	409	2	11.4	41
Sam Roush	28	288	0	10.3	31
E.J. Smith	33	242	0	7.3	53

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel (Tr)	81	3	1	4	1
Tristan Sinclair	65	5	1	4	0
Collin Wright	51	4	1	0	4
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	6	5	2	0
Anthony Franklin	27	6	3	4	1
Tevarua Tafiti	46	5	3	9	1
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zahran Manley	28	2	0	4
Collin Wright	51	4	1	4
Alaka'i Gilman	45	0	0	3