Arizona State at California - 2023 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo Arizona State Sun Devils at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:00 PM EDT)
California -13 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
California 24 - Arizona State: 21  (Pac-12)

 
Sun Devils (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#127)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CAL is playing their 5th straight game
ASU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: California -12  (SP+ CAL -13)
Projected Score: ASU: 19 - CAL: 31 (50)
CAL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
ASU Travel: 655 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Arizona State vs Southern Utah-34.060.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 9/9 Arizona State vs Oklahoma State+2.553.5L 15 - 27UN
Sat 9/16 Arizona State vs Fresno State+4.048.0L 0 - 29UN
Sat 9/23 Arizona State vs USC+34.562.0L 28 - 42OY
Sat 9/30 Arizona State at California+13.047.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/7 Arizona State vs Colorado+3.058.0L 24 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arizona State at Washington+28.059.5L 7 - 15UY
Sat 10/28 Arizona State vs Washington State+4.549.0W 38 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Arizona State at Utah+11.040.5L 3 - 55ON
Sat 11/11 Arizona State at UCLA+14.045.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 Arizona State vs Oregon+21.552.5L 13 - 49ON
Sat 11/25 Arizona State vs Arizona+12.548.5L 23 - 59ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 California at North Texas-5.053.5W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 California vs Auburn+5.055.5L 10 - 14UY
Sat 9/16 California vs Idaho-14.552.5W 31 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 California at Washington+21.055.5L 32 - 59ON
Sat 9/30 California vs Arizona State-13.047.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/7 California vs Oregon State+7.551.0L 40 - 52ON
Sat 10/14 California at Utah+9.042.5L 14 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 California vs USC+10.567.5L 49 - 50OY
Sat 11/4 California at Oregon+26.561.5L 19 - 63ON
Sat 11/11 California vs Washington State-1.558.5W 42 - 39OY
Sat 11/18 California at Stanford-6.552.5W 27 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 California at UCLA+9.550.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 12/16 California vs Texas Tech+3.554.5L 14 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU.2344%25.846%3.1213544%2524.22.2747%24.551%45%4.472.31.51
CAL.1939%25.340%2.939738%2683.81.250%27.251%49%3.9544.612
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense1225.824.644.3%4.221.5213871352524.244%55%46%44%19%.23
CAL Defense1227.224.349.7%3.952 - - - - - 47%53%51%49%13%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense1224.525.247.3%4.41 - - - - - 48%52%51%45%17%.27
CAL Offense1225.327.238.6%3.81119365972683.637%62%40%38%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State1230:4421.239%63%7.372.31.514.21.4126.3
California1228:4319.335%55%5.344.6124.41.3125.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense1244%46%32.1135.34.221.133.1274%12%0.91
CAL Defense1247%51% - - - - .123.4277%8%0.77
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense1248%51% - - - - .343.5379%9%1.11
CAL Offense1237%40%26.596.53.610.122.9363%11%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense1255%44%22.533.6251.97.511.21810.351.632%34%.437%2.1
CAL Defense1253%49% - - - - - - 11.321.428%28%.255%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense1252%45% - - - - - - 11.251.426%31%.288%1.9
CAL Offense1262%38%24.338.8268.16.911.1239.271.636%29%.376%2.2

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: -7.84  #106
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 12.85  #101
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 16.76  #123
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24%  #27
Arizona State's 2023 Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60
Arizona State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9  #108
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #102
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #94

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: -7.84   California: 2.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: -11.9   California: 1.1




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 2.1  #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66  #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83  #101
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
California 31
Arizona State 19

Projected Total Points: 50
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30California24Arizona State21California -13Arizona State47.5Under
201909/27California17Arizona State24California -4Arizona State42.5Under
201609/24Arizona State51California41Arizona State -6.5Arizona State85.0Over
201511/28California48Arizona State46California -3Arizona State67.5Over
201209/29California17Arizona State27
201111/25Arizona State38California47
201010/23California50Arizona State17
200910/31Arizona State21California23
200810/04California24Arizona State14
200710/27Arizona State31California20
200609/23California49Arizona State21
200410/30California27Arizona State0
200311/01Arizona State23California51
200211/09Arizona State38California55
200010/06Arizona State30California10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California1002 Overs
Arizona State542 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 61 - 31 - 30 - 0
Road Teams6 - 93 - 10 - 03 - 1

(#106) ASU at (#75) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatASUCAL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #106 #75
SP+SP+ #108 #61
Perf GradeGrade #130 #93
OffenseOff #132 #72
DefenseDef #120 #99
Spec TeamsST #117 #125
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #43
Arizona State on Offense
CategoryCat
ASU OffCAL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #132 #99
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #101 #101
SP+SP+ #102 #85
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arizona State Run Game
CategoryCat
ASU OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #68 #121
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #120
Arizona State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ASU OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #133 #88
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #77 #37
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
California on Offense
CategoryCatCAL OffASU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #120
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #75 #123
SP+SP+ #32 #94
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
California Run Game
CategoryCat
CAL OffASU Def
Run GameRun #31 #100
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #99
California Pass Game
CategoryCatCAL OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #77 #120
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #112 #95
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

ASU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 5
California -13.0 (47.5)
California won vs Arizona State this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
California beat Arizona State in 2023 (24-21)

  
ASU's OC Beau Baldwin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trenton Bourguet15124861%1486146.0
Jaden Rashada448254%485435.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)16478894.866
DeCarlos Brooks (Tr)4825935.421
Kyson Brown2310604.615
Jalin Conyers229214.239
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger65713311.065
Jalin Conyers30362012.150
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)24286111.966
Xavier Guillory (Tr)21226110.847

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamari Simmons (Tr)732146
Chris Edmonds710022
Travion Brown (Tr)533101
Tate Romney (Tr)524144
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Prince Dorbah (Tr)3010671
B.J. Green II39126110
Clayton Smith (Tr)216571
Dashaun Mallory (Tr)4810244
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Clark502009
Shamari Simmons (Tr)732146
Demetries Ford312005

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza15324363%170814107.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)519753%553525.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadyn Ott2451310125.366
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)7036575.226
Ashton Stredick4220024.841
Jaivian Thomas1811016.127
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Hunter63709711.350
Trond Grizzell39590515.154
Jack Endries35408211.732
Taj Davis (Tr)38393310.327

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Craig Woodson804104
Cade Uluave677203
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Reese (Tr)339843
Xavier Carlton506552
Cade Uluave677203
Nathan Burrell233211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Lu-Magia Hearns III270006