Oregon State at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo   Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks  Oregon logo
Friday, November 24th 2023 (8:30 PM EST)
Oregon -14 (61.5) (-600)  Open: -7.0
Oregon 31 - Oregon State: 7  (Pac-12)

 
Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ORE is playing their 7th straight game
ORST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -15  (SP+ ORE -10)
Projected Score: ORST: 21 - ORE: 36 (57)
ORE Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ORST Travel: 36 miles
Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Oregon State at San José State-14.056.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/9 Oregon State vs UC Davis-24.057.0W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Oregon State vs San Diego State-24.548.5W 26 - 9UN
Sat 9/23 Oregon State at Washington State-3.058.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 9/29 Oregon State vs Utah-4.043.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/7 Oregon State at California-7.551.0W 52 - 40OY
Sat 10/14 Oregon State vs UCLA-3.553.5W 36 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Oregon State at Arizona-3.057.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Oregon State at Colorado-13.060.5W 26 - 19UN
Sat 11/11 Oregon State vs Stanford-21.551.5W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/18 Oregon State vs Washington-1.562.5L 20 - 22UN
Fri 11/24 Oregon State at Oregon+14.061.5L 7 - 31UN
Fri 12/29 Oregon State vs Notre Dame+5.540.5L 8 - 40ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Oregon's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Oregon vs Portland State-48.064.5W 81 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Oregon at Texas Tech-4.570.0W 38 - 30UY
Sat 9/16 Oregon vs Hawai'i-38.567.5W 55 - 10UY
Sat 9/23 Oregon vs Colorado-21.070.0W 42 - 6UY
Sat 9/30 Oregon at Stanford-27.059.5W 42 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Oregon at Washington+3.067.0L 33 - 36OY
Sat 10/21 Oregon vs Washington State-19.560.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/28 Oregon at Utah-6.547.5W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/4 Oregon vs California-26.561.5W 63 - 19OY
Sat 11/11 Oregon vs USC-12.578.5W 36 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Oregon at Arizona State-21.552.5W 49 - 13OY
Fri 11/24 Oregon vs Oregon State-14.061.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 12/1 Oregon vs Washington-9.067.0L 31 - 34UN
Mon 1/1 Oregon vs Liberty-18.571.5W 45 - 6UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST.2548%17.651%3.4219646%2004.47.139%29.444%36%3.0954.71.41.6
ORE.3856%36.958%3.5921654%2854.4.2245%17.945%46%4.1557.20.92
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1317.611.848.5%4.471.4223961962004.959%40%51%46%13%.25
ORE Defense1317.916.845.3%4.152 - - - - - 43%56%45%46%15%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1329.435.238.8%3.091.6 - - - - - 42%57%44%36%18%.1
ORE Offense1336.943.155.9%4.40.9265012162855.553%47%58%54%11%.38

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1331:5722.244%70%654.71.41.64.91.6433.7
Oregon1331:2126.246%63%6.857.20.923.91.3129.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1359%51%40.2196.54.936.233.4278%7%0.94
ORE Defense1343%45% - - - - .183.0268%8%1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1342%44% - - - - .19378%10%1.02
ORE Offense1353%58%39.1215.75.534.373.5983%6%0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1340%46%15.524.8199.5812.91613.361.627%33%.365%1.9
ORE Defense1356%46% - - - - - - 16.281.430%37%.487%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1357%36% - - - - - - 12.061.435%28%.278%2
ORE Offense1347%54%23.733.2284.88.612309.41.425%38%.484%1.9

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36  #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78  #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19  #39
2023 Talent Rating: 653.16  #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7  #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36   Oregon: 28.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7   Oregon: 25.0




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.15  #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84  #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60  #18
2023 Talent Rating: 874.74  #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 63  #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0  #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0  #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 36
Oregon State 21

Projected Total Points: 57
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Oregon41Oregon State7Oregon -33.5Oregon58.5Under
202409/14Oregon State14Oregon49Oregon -16Oregon50.0Over
202311/24Oregon31Oregon State7Oregon -14Oregon61.5Under
202211/26Oregon State38Oregon34Oregon State -1Oregon State57.0Over
202111/27Oregon38Oregon State29Oregon -7.5Oregon61.5Over
202011/27Oregon State41Oregon38Oregon -13Oregon State64.5Over
201911/30Oregon24Oregon State10Oregon -20.5Oregon State65.5Under
201811/23Oregon State15Oregon55Oregon -18Oregon71.0Under
201711/25Oregon69Oregon State10Oregon -25.5Oregon63.0Over
201611/26Oregon State34Oregon24Oregon -3Oregon State69.0Under
201511/27Oregon52Oregon State42Oregon -30Oregon State71.5Over
201411/29Oregon State19Oregon47Oregon -17.5Oregon0
201311/29Oregon36Oregon State35Oregon -21Oregon State0
201211/24Oregon State24Oregon48
201111/26Oregon49Oregon State21
201012/04Oregon State20Oregon37
200912/03Oregon37Oregon State33
200811/29Oregon State38Oregon65
200712/01Oregon31Oregon State38
200611/24Oregon State30Oregon28
200511/19Oregon56Oregon State14
200411/20Oregon State50Oregon21
200311/22Oregon34Oregon State20
200112/01Oregon17Oregon State14
200011/17Oregon State23Oregon13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon1876 Overs
Oregon State765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams18 - 77 - 65 - 32 - 3
Road Teams7 - 186 - 73 - 23 - 5

(#17) ORST at (#2) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTORE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #17 #2
SP+SP+ #17 #5
Perf GradeGrade #19 #5
OffenseOff #12 #1
DefenseDef #58 #20
Spec TeamsST #57 #29
TalentTal #54 #10
Blue ChipsBC% #66 #12
Oregon State on Offense
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #12 #20
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #10 #18
SP+SP+ #22 #19
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Oregon State Run Game
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Run GameRun #29 #28
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #4
Oregon State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #43 #15
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #45
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Oregon on Offense
CategoryCatORE OffORST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #1 #58
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #2 #39
SP+SP+ #1 #32
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Oregon Run Game
CategoryCat
ORE OffORST Def
Run GameRun #2 #52
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #136
Oregon Pass Game
CategoryCatORE OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #1 #65
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #105
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Improving CFP Hopefuls
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Oregon -14.0 (61.5)
Oregon won vs Oregon State this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (41-7)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2024 (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)

  
ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)18031557%26382178.4
Aidan Chiles243569%309408.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez194118596.164
Deshaun Fenwick9651555.438
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)6821963.226
Silas Bolden98429.345
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Silas Bolden54746513.850
Anthony Gould44718216.375
Jack Velling29438815.141
Jesiah Irish18302116.838

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold1067230
Kitan Oladapo733117
Akili Arnold622126
Calvin Hart Jr.617410
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.28101042
John McCartan479542
Calvin Hart Jr.617410
Joe Golden424420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Robinson331108
Ryan Cooper Jr.372117
Jermod McCoy311017

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bo Nix36447077%45084539.6
Ty Thompson243177%297419.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mar'Keise Irving1861180116.356
Jordan James107759117.137
Bo Nix5423464.344
Noah Whittington2014627.341
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Troy Franklin8113831417.184
Tez Johnson (Tr)8611821013.777
Traeshon Holden (Tr)37452612.263
Gary Bryant Jr. (Tr)30442414.771

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Williams (Tr)825521
Jeffrey Bassa7140121
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)705137
Steve Stephens562002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Dorlus257577
Evan Williams (Tr)825521
Popo Aumavae183330
Jordan Burch (Tr)348351
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Dorlus257577
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)705137
Nikko Reed (Tr)252107