Oregon State at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview

Friday, November 24th 2023 (8:30 PM EST)
Oregon -14 (61.5) (-600) Open: -7.0
Oregon 31 - Oregon State: 7 (Pac-12)

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE is playing their 7th straight game
ORST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -15 (SP+ ORE -10)
Projected Score: ORST: 21 - ORE: 36 (54)
ORE Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ORST Travel: 36 miles

Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Oregon's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oregon vs Portland State	-48.0	64.5	W 81 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon at Texas Tech	-4.5	70.0	W 38 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon vs Hawai'i	-38.5	67.5	W 55 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Oregon vs Colorado	-21.0	70.0	W 42 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oregon at Stanford	-27.0	59.5	W 42 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Oregon at Washington	+3.0	67.0	L 33 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oregon vs Washington State	-19.5	60.5	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/28	Oregon at Utah	-6.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Oregon vs California	-26.5	61.5	W 63 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Oregon vs USC	-12.5	78.5	W 36 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oregon at Arizona State	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Oregon vs Oregon State	-14.0	61.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/1	Oregon vs Washington	-9.0	67.0	L 31 - 34	U	N
Mon 1/1	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	.25	48%	24.3	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	29.9	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6
ORE	.38	56%	34.9	58%	3.59	216	54%	285	4.4	.22	45%	19.4	45%	46%	4.15	57.2	0.9	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	24.3	16.6	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25
ORE Defense	13	19.4	19.6	45.3%	4.15	2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	45%	46%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	29.9	29.6	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1
ORE Offense	13	34.9	35.7	55.9%	4.4	0.9	26	501	216	285	5.5	53%	47%	58%	54%	11%	.38

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7
Oregon	13	31:21	26.2	46%	63%	6.8	57.2	0.9	2	3.9	1.3	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94
ORE Defense	13	43%	45%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.02	68%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02
ORE Offense	13	53%	58%	39.1	215.7	5.5	34	.37	3.59	83%	6%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9
ORE Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.28	1.4	30%	37%	.48	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2
ORE Offense	13	47%	54%	23.7	33.2	284.8	8.6	12	30	9	.4	1.4	25%	38%	.48	4%	1.9

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 644
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36 Oregon: 28.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7 Oregon: 25.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.15 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 1080.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 36
Oregon State 21

Projected Total Points: 54

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Oregon State	14	Oregon	49	Oregon	Oregon -16	Oregon	50.0	Over
2023	11/24	Oregon	31	Oregon State	7	Oregon	Oregon -14	Oregon	61.5	Under
2022	11/26	Oregon State	38	Oregon	34	Oregon State	Oregon State -1	Oregon State	57.0	Over
2021	11/27	Oregon	38	Oregon State	29	Oregon	Oregon -7.5	Oregon	61.5	Over
2020	11/27	Oregon State	41	Oregon	38	Oregon State	Oregon -13	Oregon State	64.5	Over
2019	11/30	Oregon	24	Oregon State	10	Oregon	Oregon -20.5	Oregon State	65.5	Under
2018	11/23	Oregon State	15	Oregon	55	Oregon	Oregon -18	Oregon	71.0	Under
2017	11/25	Oregon	69	Oregon State	10	Oregon	Oregon -25.5	Oregon	63.0	Over
2016	11/26	Oregon State	34	Oregon	24	Oregon State	Oregon -3	Oregon State	69.0	Under
2015	11/27	Oregon	52	Oregon State	42	Oregon	Oregon -30	Oregon State	71.5	Over
2014	11/29	Oregon State	19	Oregon	47	Oregon	Oregon -17.5	Oregon	0
2013	11/29	Oregon	36	Oregon State	35	Oregon	Oregon -21	Oregon State	0
2012	11/24	Oregon State	24	Oregon	48	Oregon
2011	11/26	Oregon	49	Oregon State	21	Oregon
2010	12/04	Oregon State	20	Oregon	37	Oregon
2009	12/03	Oregon	37	Oregon State	33	Oregon
2008	11/29	Oregon State	38	Oregon	65	Oregon
2007	12/01	Oregon	31	Oregon State	38	Oregon State
2006	11/24	Oregon State	30	Oregon	28	Oregon State
2005	11/19	Oregon	56	Oregon State	14	Oregon
2004	11/20	Oregon State	50	Oregon	21	Oregon State
2003	11/22	Oregon	34	Oregon State	20	Oregon
2001	12/01	Oregon	17	Oregon State	14	Oregon
2000	11/17	Oregon State	23	Oregon	13	Oregon State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	17	6	6 Overs
Oregon State	7	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 7	6 - 6	4 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 17	6 - 6	3 - 2	3 - 4

(#17) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32
Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30

Team Profile

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Oregon State Ratings Matchup Oregon

Power #17

Off #10

Def #39

#18

Talent #79

SP+ #17

SP+ Off #22

SP+ Def #32

#19

Rematch from Week 13
Oregon -14.0 (61.5)
Oregon won vs Oregon State this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)
Oregon State beat Oregon in 2022 (38-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 34°

Team Information
Injuries: ORST | ORE
Depth Chart: ORST | ORE
Rosters: ORST | ORE

(#2) Oregon Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 28.15 #2
Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19
Talent Rating: 1080.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70

Team Profile

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Oregon State's OC Brian Lindgren

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Aidan Chiles	96	234	3	2.4	26
Silas Bolden	2	-3	1	-1.5	5
Ben Gulbranson	14	-7	1	-0.5	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Velling	36	411	1	11.4	34
Silas Bolden	23	267	1	11.6	24
Tastean Reddicks	17	222	0	13.1	29
Damien Martinez	17	204	0	12.0	36

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Trent Bray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	94	5	2	2	1
Akili Arnold	59	1	1	1	1
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	94	5	2	2	1
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2
Akili Arnold	59	1	1	1	1
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7
Jaden Robinson	38	2	0	0	3
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2

Oregon's OC Will Stein

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tez Johnson (Tr)	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Dante Dowdell	143	614	12	4.3	38
Jordan Burch (Tr)	1	36	0	36.0	36
Kris Hutson	4	28	1	7.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson (Tr)	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden (Tr)	45	718	5	16.0	59
Kris Hutson	55	691	2	12.6	59
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges	68	1	0	0	5
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	58	3	0	0	0
Jeffrey Bassa	51	3	2	2	2
Bryan Addison	43	1	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Burch (Tr)	29	11	9	4	5
Jake Shipley	24	3	2	4	0
Jeffrey Bassa	51	3	2	2	2
Jestin Jacobs (Tr)	27	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Dontae Manning	18	1	6
Trikweze Bridges	68	1	5
Bryan Addison	43	1	5