Oregon State at Arizona - 2023 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -3 (57.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arizona 27 - Oregon State: 24 (Pac-12)

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORST coming off BYE
ARIZ coming off BYE
Our Line: Arizona -0.5 (SP+ ORST -2.5)
Projected Score: ORST: 27 - ARIZ: 28 (54)
ORST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ORST Travel: 1080 miles

Wildcats (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (8 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
ARIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Arizona's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-28.5	61.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Arizona at Mississippi State	+9.0	60.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Arizona vs UTEP	-18.0	57.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Arizona at Stanford	-13.0	60.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Arizona vs Washington	+20.0	66.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Arizona at USC	+21.0	69.5	L 41 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arizona at Washington State	+7.5	57.5	W 44 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Arizona vs Oregon State	+3.0	57.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Arizona vs UCLA	+2.5	50.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arizona at Colorado	-6.0	55.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arizona vs Utah	-2.5	45.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arizona at Arizona State	-12.5	48.5	W 59 - 23	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Arizona vs Oklahoma	-2.5	59.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	.25	48%	24.3	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	29.9	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6
ARIZ	.29	48%	21.8	53%	3.33	144	45%	318	3.89	.36	53%	31.8	57%	51%	4.48	50	1.8	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	24.3	16.6	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25
ARIZ Defense	12	31.8	27.7	53.4%	4.48	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	57%	51%	13%	.36

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	29.9	29.6	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1
ARIZ Offense	12	21.8	24.6	47.7%	3.89	1.8	24	462	144	318	4.9	41%	57%	53%	45%	16%	.29

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7
Arizona	12	28:03	24.1	42%	43%	5.4	50	1.8	2.3	4.6	1.3	0	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94
ARIZ Defense	12	50%	57%	-	-	-	-	.34	3.63	79%	9%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02
ARIZ Offense	12	41%	53%	29.3	144	4.9	19	.22	3.33	67%	9%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9
ARIZ Defense	12	50%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.4	1.4	25%	39%	.56	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2
ARIZ Offense	12	57%	45%	23.6	38.3	318.4	8.3	13.5	26	13	.39	1.8	29%	36%	.49	7%	2.3

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 644
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36 Arizona: 13.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7 Arizona: 12.1

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 13.725 #20
Arizona's Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Arizona's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 810.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Arizona's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Arizona's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 28
Oregon State 27

Projected Total Points: 54

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.7

Arizona's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Arizona	27	Oregon State	24	Arizona	Oregon State -3	Arizona	57.5	Under
2019	11/02	Arizona	38	Oregon State	56	Oregon State	Arizona -4.5	Oregon State	72.0	Over
2018	09/22	Oregon State	14	Arizona	35	Arizona	Arizona -4	Arizona	72.5	Under
2017	11/11	Arizona	49	Oregon State	28	Arizona	Arizona -21	Push	69.5	Over
2016	11/19	Oregon State	42	Arizona	17	Oregon State	Oregon State -5	Oregon State	61.5	Under
2015	10/10	Arizona	44	Oregon State	7	Arizona	Arizona -12.5	Arizona	66.5	Under
2012	09/29	Arizona	35	Oregon State	38	Oregon State
2011	10/08	Oregon State	37	Arizona	27	Oregon State
2010	10/09	Arizona	27	Oregon State	29	Oregon State
2009	09/26	Oregon State	32	Arizona	37	Arizona
2008	11/22	Arizona	17	Oregon State	19	Oregon State
2007	10/06	Oregon State	31	Arizona	16	Oregon State
2006	10/21	Arizona	10	Oregon State	17	Oregon State
2005	10/29	Oregon State	27	Arizona	29	Arizona
2004	10/30	Arizona	14	Oregon State	28	Oregon State
2003	11/01	Oregon State	52	Arizona	23	Oregon State
2002	11/02	Oregon State	38	Arizona	3	Oregon State
2001	10/13	Oregon State	38	Arizona	3	Oregon State
2000	11/10	Arizona	9	Oregon State	33	Oregon State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona	6	3	2 Overs
Oregon State	13	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 10	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 9	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 2

(#17) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32
Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30

Team Profile

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Oregon State Ratings Matchup Arizona

Power #17

#20

Off #10

Def #39

#53

Talent #79

#27

SP+ #17

#20

SP+ Off #22

#15

SP+ Def #32

#41

Rematch from Week 9
Oregon State 3.0 (57.5)
Arizona won vs Oregon State this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Oregon State in 2023 (27-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72°

Team Information
Injuries: ORST | ARIZ
Depth Chart: ORST | ARIZ
Rosters: ORST | ARIZ

(#20) Arizona Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.725 #20
Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 810.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90

Team Profile

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Oregon State's OC Brian Lindgren

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Aidan Chiles	96	234	3	2.4	26
Silas Bolden	2	-3	1	-1.5	5
Ben Gulbranson	14	-7	1	-0.5	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Velling	36	411	1	11.4	34
Silas Bolden	23	267	1	11.6	24
Tastean Reddicks	17	222	0	13.1	29
Damien Martinez	17	204	0	12.0	36

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Trent Bray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	94	5	2	2	1
Akili Arnold	59	1	1	1	1
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	94	5	2	2	1
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2
Akili Arnold	59	1	1	1	1
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermod McCoy	44	1	0	0	7
Jaden Robinson	38	2	0	0	3
John Miller	52	6	2	4	2

Arizona's OC Brennan Carroll

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tetairoa Mcmillan	1	2	50%	14	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonah Coleman	193	1053	10	5.5	64
Stevie Rocker	25	128	2	5.1	23
Montana Lemonious-Craig (Tr)	1	5	0	5.0	5
Canyon Moses	1	0	0	0.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Jonah Coleman	23	177	0	7.7	17
Montana Lemonious-Craig (Tr)	17	172	1	10.1	20
Stevie Rocker	6	82	0	13.7	34

View Arizona's Full Roster

Arizona's DC Johnny Nansen

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ephesians Prysock	45	0	0	0	6
Isaiah Ward	28	6	3	2	2
Marquis Groves-Killebrew	26	1	1	0	4
Daniel Heimuli (Tr)	18	1	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Kongaika	10	5	3	1	0
Isaiah Ward	28	6	3	2	2
Russell Davis II	4	3	3	0	0
Marquis Groves-Killebrew	26	1	1	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ephesians Prysock	45	0	0	0	6
Marquis Groves-Killebrew	26	1	1	0	4
Isaiah Ward	28	6	3	2	2