Oregon State at Arizona - 2023 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -3 (57.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arizona 27 - Oregon State: 24 (Pac-12)

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (31 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORST coming off BYE
ARIZ coming off BYE
Our Line: Arizona -0.5 (SP+ ORST -2.5)
Projected Score: ORST: 29 - ARIZ: 29 (58)
ORST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ORST Travel: 1080 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (8 - 19)
Avg Score : 35 - 21 (32 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
ARIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Arizona's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-28.5	61.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Arizona at Mississippi State	+9.0	60.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Arizona vs UTEP	-18.0	57.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Arizona at Stanford	-13.0	60.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Arizona vs Washington	+20.0	66.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Arizona at USC	+21.0	69.5	L 41 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arizona at Washington State	+7.5	57.5	W 44 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Arizona vs Oregon State	+3.0	57.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Arizona vs UCLA	+2.5	50.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arizona at Colorado	-6.0	55.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arizona vs Utah	-2.5	45.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arizona at Arizona State	-12.5	48.5	W 59 - 23	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Arizona vs Oklahoma	-2.5	59.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#13 (.32)	48% (14)	31.8	52% (6)	3.24 (43)	167	45% (39)	242	4.78 (11)	#39 (.14)	44% (91)	22.9	46% (102)	43% (81)	3.42 (37)	50.1	1	1.5
ARIZ	#10 (.34)	51% (6)	34.6	52% (5)	3.26 (40)	140	50% (10)	308	4.42 (29)	#57 (.16)	42% (67)	21.1	43% (71)	41% (62)	3.37 (29)	53	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)		37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)		45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	31.8	31	48.1%	4.78	1	21	409	167	242	4.9	52%	47%	52%	45%	14%	.32
ARIZ Defense	13	21.1	16	41.9%	3.37	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	41%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	22.9	28.7	43.8%	3.42	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	43%	18%	.14
ARIZ Offense	13	34.6	31.5	50.6%	4.42	1.1	23	448	140	308	4.6	43%	57%	52%	50%	14%	.34

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	30:39	21.4	39%	57%	5.5	50.1	1	1.5	5.5	2.7	2	29.7
Arizona	13	30:50	23	49%	67%	6.3	53	1.1	1.4	5.3	2.4	1	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	52% (51)	52% (6)	34.2	167.1	4.9	26 (30)	.23 (26)	3.24 (43)	73% (79)	9% (43)	0.97 (85)
ARIZ Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.12 (58)	3 (50)	75% (82)	11% (54)	0.97 (51)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.09 (35)	2.9 (36)	84% (122)	10% (61)	0.84 (10)
ARIZ Offense	13	43% (112)	52% (5)	30.6	139.7	4.6	17 (81)	.21 (34)	3.26 (40)	74% (68)	9% (38)	0.9 (109)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	47% (82)	45% (39)	17.1	29.2	242.2	8.3	14.2	26 (31)	8 (30)	.44 (21)	1.8 (17)	32% (77)	37% (17)	.56 (9)	6% (48)	2.2 (24)
ARIZ Defense	13	53% (115)	41% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.26 (57)	1.5 (48)	34% (38)	32% (95)	.25 (38)	6% (60)	2 (36)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	53% (114)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.26 (60)	1.6 (61)	33% (54)	33% (111)	.3 (59)	7% (22)	2 (46)
ARIZ Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (10)	25.5	35.7	308.3	8.6	12.1	36 (5)	11 (68)	.47 (15)	1.6 (68)	29% (19)	41% (6)	.54 (13)	6% (69)	2 (103)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36 Arizona: 13.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7 Arizona: 12.1

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 13.725 #20
Arizona's Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Arizona's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Arizona's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Arizona's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.7

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 29
Oregon State 29

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon State 34
Arizona 31

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 30
Oregon State 25

Total Points: 55

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 16

Arizona's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Arizona	27	Oregon State	24	Oregon State -3	Arizona	57.5	Under
2019	11/02	Arizona	38	Oregon State	56	Arizona -4.5	Oregon State	72.0	Over
2018	09/22	Oregon State	14	Arizona	35	Arizona -4	Arizona	72.5	Under
2017	11/11	Arizona	49	Oregon State	28	Arizona -21	Push	69.5	Over
2016	11/19	Oregon State	42	Arizona	17	Oregon State -5	Oregon State	61.5	Under
2015	10/10	Arizona	44	Oregon State	7	Arizona -12.5	Arizona	66.5	Under
2012	09/29	Arizona	35	Oregon State	38
2011	10/08	Oregon State	37	Arizona	27
2010	10/09	Arizona	27	Oregon State	29
2009	09/26	Oregon State	32	Arizona	37
2008	11/22	Arizona	17	Oregon State	19
2007	10/06	Oregon State	31	Arizona	16
2006	10/21	Arizona	10	Oregon State	17
2005	10/29	Oregon State	27	Arizona	29
2004	10/30	Arizona	14	Oregon State	28
2003	11/01	Oregon State	52	Arizona	23
2002	11/02	Oregon State	38	Arizona	3
2001	10/13	Oregon State	38	Arizona	3
2000	11/10	Arizona	9	Oregon State	33

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona	6	3	2 Overs
Oregon State	13	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 10	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 9	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 2

(#17) ORST at (#20) ARIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORST	ARIZ
Power RatePwr	#17	#20
SP+SP+	#17	#20
Perf GradeGrade	#19	#16
OffenseOff	#12	#8
DefenseDef	#58	#56
Spec TeamsST	#57	#63
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#66	#51

Oregon State Injury Report

Arizona Injury Report

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	ARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#56
SuccessSuc	#14	#67
ExplosiveExp	#54	#58
PPAPPA	#13	#57
PowerPwr	#10	#53
SP+SP+	#22	#41
Pts POPPO	#11	#29
HavocHav	#42	#50

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#29	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#71
Run ExplRExp	#85	#51
PPAExp	#26	#58
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#50
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#37
TackleTak	-	#51

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#17	#48
PPAExp	#21	#57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#81
F7 HavocF7	#43	#54
DB HavocDB	#48	#60

Arizona on Offense


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	ORST Def
Perf GradePerf	#8	#58
SuccessSuc	#6	#91
ExplosiveExp	#76	#36
PPAPPA	#10	#39
PowerPwr	#6	#39
SP+SP+	#15	#32
Pts POPPO	#29	#37
HavocHav	#44	#38

Arizona Run Game


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#8	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#5	#102
Run ExplRExp	#109	#10
PPAExp	#34	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#40	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#58
TackleTak	-	#136

Arizona Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#61
PPAExp	#15	#60
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#4	#105
F7 HavocF7	#38	#61
DB HavocDB	#69	#22

Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72°

Rematch from Week 9
Oregon State 3.0 (57.5)
Arizona won vs Oregon State this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Oregon State in 2023 (27-24)

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	180	315	57%	2638	21	7	8.4
Aidan Chiles	24	35	69%	309	4	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	194	1185	9	6.1	64
Deshaun Fenwick	96	515	5	5.4	38
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	68	219	6	3.2	26
Silas Bolden	9	84	2	9.3	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Silas Bolden	54	746	5	13.8	50
Anthony Gould	44	718	2	16.3	75
Jack Velling	29	438	8	15.1	41
Jesiah Irish	18	302	1	16.8	38

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	106	7	2	3	0
Kitan Oladapo	73	3	1	1	7
Akili Arnold	62	2	1	2	6
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.	28	10	10	4	2
John McCartan	47	9	5	4	2
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0
Joe Golden	42	4	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Robinson	33	1	1	0	8
Ryan Cooper Jr.	37	2	1	1	7
Jermod McCoy	31	1	0	1	7

ARIZ's OC Brennan Carroll (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	241	333	72%	2869	25	6	8.6
Jayden de Laura	89	128	70%	1120	10	5	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonah Coleman	128	871	5	6.8	59
D.J. Williams	85	372	5	4.4	19
Michael Wiley	70	311	3	4.4	24
Rayshon Luke	37	153	1	4.1	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	90	1402	10	15.6	57
Jacob Cowing	89	839	13	9.4	57
Tanner McLachlan	45	528	4	11.7	36
Michael Wiley	28	306	5	10.9	40

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Johnny Nansen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Manu	104	10	7	10	2
Dalton Johnson	86	6	2	1	1
Gunner Maldonado	79	1	0	0	1
Ephesians Prysock	64	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taylor Upshaw (Tr)	31	12	9	3	1
Jacob Manu	104	10	7	10	2
Isaiah Ward	30	5	4	7	1
Russell Davis II	17	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tacario Davis	25	1	15
Ephesians Prysock	64	1	7
Treydan Stukes	55	4	7