UCLA at Oregon State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Oregon State -3.5 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oregon State 36 - UCLA: 24 (Pac-12)

Bruins (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chip Kelly (30 - 29)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (17 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Oregon State -8.5 (SP+ ORST -7)
Projected Score: UCLA: 22 - ORST: 30 (52)
ORST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UCLA Travel: 768 miles

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCLA Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCLA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UCLA vs Coastal Carolina	-15.5	66.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	UCLA at San Diego State	-13.0	49.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	UCLA vs North Carolina Central	-35.0	60.5	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCLA at Utah	+3.0	50.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UCLA vs Washington State	-3.0	60.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	UCLA at Oregon State	+3.5	53.5	L 24 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/21	UCLA at Stanford	-17.0	52.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCLA vs Colorado	-14.0	60.0	W 28 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/4	UCLA at Arizona	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCLA vs Arizona State	-14.0	45.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/18	UCLA at USC	+6.0	65.5	W 38 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCLA vs California	-9.5	50.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 12/16	UCLA vs Boise State	-6.5	46.0	W 35 - 22	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	.37	54%	18.2	57%	3.73	238	52%	265	4.5	.23	47%	33.4	48%	46%	4.21	52.5	1.5	1.8
ORST	.25	48%	17.6	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	29.4	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Offense	13	18.2	16.8	54%	4.5	1.5	26	504	238	265	6	51%	49%	57%	52%	12%	.37
ORST Defense	13	29.4	25.3	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Defense	13	33.4	32.2	46.8%	4.21	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	48%	46%	12%	.23
ORST Offense	13	17.6	21.7	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCLA	13	27:21	25.8	51%	58%	6.5	52.5	1.5	1.8	4.3	2.2	1	29.4
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Offense	13	51%	57%	39.5	238.4	6	36	.39	3.73	85%	8%	1.04
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Defense	13	44%	48%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.33	84%	8%	0.89
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Offense	13	49%	52%	22.4	32.2	265.2	8.2	11.9	29	12	.38	1.5	26%	41%	.48	5%	2
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.3	1.4	29%	31%	.37	5%	2.2
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 6.08 #33
UCLA's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 1.17 #11
2023 Talent Rating: 752.60 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #26
UCLA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
UCLA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #56
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 6.08 Oregon State: 15.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 7.9 Oregon State: 14.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 15.53 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 653.16 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

UCLA's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 30
UCLA 22

Projected Total Points: 52

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Oregon State	36	UCLA	24	Oregon State -3.5	Oregon State	53.5	Over
2019	10/05	UCLA	31	Oregon State	48	UCLA -4.5	Oregon State	63.5	Over
2016	11/12	UCLA	38	Oregon State	24	UCLA -10	UCLA	48.5	Over
2015	11/07	Oregon State	0	UCLA	41	UCLA -15.5	UCLA	60.0	Under
2012	09/22	UCLA	20	Oregon State	27
2011	09/24	Oregon State	19	UCLA	27
2010	11/06	UCLA	17	Oregon State	14
2009	10/31	Oregon State	26	UCLA	19
2008	11/08	UCLA	6	Oregon State	34
2007	09/29	Oregon State	14	UCLA	40
2006	11/11	UCLA	25	Oregon State	7
2005	10/22	UCLA	51	Oregon State	28
2002	10/05	Oregon State	35	UCLA	43
2001	09/29	Oregon State	7	UCLA	38
2000	10/20	UCLA	38	Oregon State	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	6	2	3 Overs
UCLA	9	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 9	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 6	2 - 2	1 - 0	1 - 2

(#33) UCLA at (#17) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCLA	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#33	#17
SP+SP+	#38	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#26	#19
OffenseOff	#68	#12
DefenseDef	#7	#58
Spec TeamsST	#47	#57
TalentTal	#25	#54
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#66

UCLA Injury Report

Oregon State Injury Report

UCLA on Offense


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#58
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#103	#39
SP+SP+	#56	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCLA Run Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#36	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#136

UCLA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#115	#105
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	UCLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#7
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#10	#11
SP+SP+	#22	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#29	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#71

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#1
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UCLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Oregon State -3.5 (53.5)
Oregon State won vs UCLA this year (36-24)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat UCLA in 2023 (36-24)

UCLA's OC Chip Kelly (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	114	213	54%	1610	11	9	7.6
Ethan Garbers	98	146	67%	1136	11	3	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Steele (Tr)	167	846	6	5.1	42
TJ Harden	156	827	8	5.3	62
Collin Schlee (Tr)	42	425	3	10.1	57
Anthony Adkins (Tr)	30	178	1	5.9	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Logan Loya	59	655	5	11.1	49
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)	36	597	4	16.6	62
Moliki Matavao (Tr)	14	283	2	20.2	35
Kyle Ford (Tr)	22	236	1	10.7	37

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kain Medrano	56	7	2	4	2
Oluwafemi Oladejo (Tr)	53	2	0	0	3
Kenny Churchwell III	50	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Laiatu Latu	48	21	12	10	2
Gabriel Murphy	39	17	9	8	2
Grayson Murphy	33	10	6	10	1
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylin Davies	43	1	0	0	6
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kamari Ramsey	40	3	0	2	4

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	180	315	57%	2638	21	7	8.4
Aidan Chiles	24	35	69%	309	4	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	194	1185	9	6.1	64
Deshaun Fenwick	96	515	5	5.4	38
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	68	219	6	3.2	26
Silas Bolden	9	84	2	9.3	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Silas Bolden	54	746	5	13.8	50
Anthony Gould	44	718	2	16.3	75
Jack Velling	29	438	8	15.1	41
Jesiah Irish	18	302	1	16.8	38

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	106	7	2	3	0
Kitan Oladapo	73	3	1	1	7
Akili Arnold	62	2	1	2	6
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.	28	10	10	4	2
John McCartan	47	9	5	4	2
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0
Joe Golden	42	4	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Robinson	33	1	1	0	8
Ryan Cooper Jr.	37	2	1	1	7
Jermod McCoy	31	1	0	1	7