UCLA at Oregon State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Oregon State -3.5 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oregon State 36 - UCLA: 24 (Pac-12)

Bruins (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chip Kelly (30 - 29)
Avg Score : 27 - 18 (26 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Oregon State -8.5 (SP+ ORST -7)
Projected Score: UCLA: 20 - ORST: 29 (49)
ORST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UCLA Travel: 768 miles

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (37 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCLA Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCLA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UCLA vs Coastal Carolina	-15.5	66.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	UCLA at San Diego State	-13.0	49.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	UCLA vs North Carolina Central	-35.0	60.5	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCLA at Utah	+3.0	50.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UCLA vs Washington State	-3.0	60.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	UCLA at Oregon State	+3.5	53.5	L 24 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/21	UCLA at Stanford	-17.0	52.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCLA vs Colorado	-14.0	60.0	W 28 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/4	UCLA at Arizona	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCLA vs Arizona State	-14.0	45.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/18	UCLA at USC	+6.0	65.5	W 38 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCLA vs California	-9.5	50.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 12/16	UCLA vs Boise State	-6.5	46.0	W 35 - 22	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	#73 (.18)	42% (71)	26.5	44% (55)	3.27 (37)	198	40% (88)	229	3.11 (120)	#11 (.08)	37% (18)	18.4	37% (24)	37% (18)	3.16 (19)	58.1	1.7	1.8
ORST	#13 (.32)	48% (14)	31.8	52% (6)	3.24 (43)	167	45% (39)	242	4.78 (11)	#39 (.14)	44% (91)	22.9	46% (102)	43% (81)	3.42 (37)	50.1	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)		34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)		45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Offense	13	26.5	26	41.8%	3.11	1.7	21	427	198	229	4.9	51%	49%	44%	40%	17%	.18
ORST Defense	13	22.9	14.3	43.8%	3.42	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	43%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Defense	13	18.4	19	36.7%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	37%	37%	21%	.08
ORST Offense	13	31.8	36.7	48.1%	4.78	1	21	409	167	242	4.9	52%	47%	52%	45%	14%	.32

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCLA	13	29:01	21.4	44%	47%	7.1	58.1	1.7	1.8	8.1	3.2	0	29.9
Oregon State	13	30:39	21.4	39%	57%	5.5	50.1	1	1.5	5.5	2.7	2	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Offense	13	51% (63)	44% (55)	40.5	197.9	4.9	21 (54)	.21 (37)	3.27 (37)	70% (95)	10% (75)	1.07 (33)
ORST Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.09 (35)	2.9 (36)	84% (122)	10% (61)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Defense	13	42% (7)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (6)	2.64 (10)	55% (4)	14% (5)	0.84 (9)
ORST Offense	13	52% (51)	52% (6)	34.2	167.1	4.9	26 (30)	.23 (26)	3.24 (43)	73% (79)	9% (43)	0.97 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Offense	13	49% (66)	40% (88)	18.3	31.5	229.2	7.3	12.5	24 (41)	14 (107)	.16 (107)	1.6 (58)	32% (73)	33% (54)	.28 (89)	7% (92)	1.9 (118)
ORST Defense	13	53% (114)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.26 (60)	1.6 (61)	33% (54)	33% (111)	.3 (59)	7% (22)	2 (46)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Defense	13	57% (128)	37% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (32)	1.6 (52)	37% (9)	28% (34)	.29 (54)	7% (51)	2.1 (86)
ORST Offense	13	47% (82)	45% (39)	17.1	29.2	242.2	8.3	14.2	26 (31)	8 (30)	.44 (21)	1.8 (17)	32% (77)	37% (17)	.56 (9)	6% (48)	2.2 (24)

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 6.08 #33
UCLA's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 1.17 #11
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #26
UCLA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
UCLA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #56
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 6.08 Oregon State: 15.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 7.9 Oregon State: 14.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 15.53 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 19

UCLA's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 29
UCLA 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
UCLA 21
Oregon State 20

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
Oregon State 26
UCLA 23

Total Points: 49

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Oregon State	36	UCLA	24	Oregon State -3.5	Oregon State	53.5	Over
2019	10/05	UCLA	31	Oregon State	48	UCLA -4.5	Oregon State	63.5	Over
2016	11/12	UCLA	38	Oregon State	24	UCLA -10	UCLA	48.5	Over
2015	11/07	Oregon State	0	UCLA	41	UCLA -15.5	UCLA	60.0	Under
2012	09/22	UCLA	20	Oregon State	27
2011	09/24	Oregon State	19	UCLA	27
2010	11/06	UCLA	17	Oregon State	14
2009	10/31	Oregon State	26	UCLA	19
2008	11/08	UCLA	6	Oregon State	34
2007	09/29	Oregon State	14	UCLA	40
2006	11/11	UCLA	25	Oregon State	7
2005	10/22	UCLA	51	Oregon State	28
2002	10/05	Oregon State	35	UCLA	43
2001	09/29	Oregon State	7	UCLA	38
2000	10/20	UCLA	38	Oregon State	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	6	2	3 Overs
UCLA	9	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 9	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 6	2 - 2	1 - 0	1 - 2

(#33) UCLA at (#17) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCLA	ORST
Power RatePwr	#33	#17
SP+SP+	#38	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#26	#19
OffenseOff	#68	#12
DefenseDef	#7	#58
Spec TeamsST	#47	#57
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#66

UCLA Injury Report

Oregon State Injury Report

UCLA on Offense


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORST Def
Perf GradePerf	#68	#58
SuccessSuc	#71	#91
ExplosiveExp	#47	#36
PPAPPA	#73	#39
PowerPwr	#103	#39
SP+SP+	#56	#32
Pts POPPO	#120	#37
HavocHav	#83	#38

UCLA Run Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#36	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#55	#102
Run ExplRExp	#33	#10
PPAExp	#37	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	#37	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#58
TackleTak	-	#136

UCLA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#61
PPAExp	#107	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#115	#105
F7 HavocF7	#75	#61
DB HavocDB	#92	#22

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	UCLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#7
SuccessSuc	#14	#18
ExplosiveExp	#54	#45
PPAPPA	#13	#11
PowerPwr	#10	#11
SP+SP+	#22	#16
Pts POPPO	#11	#19
HavocHav	#42	#8

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#29	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#24
Run ExplRExp	#85	#9
PPAExp	#26	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#10
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#4
TackleTak	-	#71

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#17	#52
PPAExp	#21	#32
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#1
F7 HavocF7	#43	#5
DB HavocDB	#48	#51

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UCLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62°

Rematch from Week 7
Oregon State -3.5 (53.5)
Oregon State won vs UCLA this year (36-24)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat UCLA in 2023 (36-24)

UCLA's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	114	213	54%	1610	11	9	7.6
Ethan Garbers	98	146	67%	1136	11	3	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Steele (Tr)	167	846	6	5.1	42
TJ Harden	156	827	8	5.3	62
Collin Schlee (Tr)	42	425	3	10.1	57
Anthony Adkins (Tr)	30	178	1	5.9	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Logan Loya	59	655	5	11.1	49
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)	36	597	4	16.6	62
Moliki Matavao (Tr)	14	283	2	20.2	35
Kyle Ford (Tr)	22	236	1	10.7	37

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kain Medrano	56	7	2	4	2
Oluwafemi Oladejo (Tr)	53	2	0	0	3
Kenny Churchwell III	50	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Laiatu Latu	48	21	12	10	2
Gabriel Murphy	39	17	9	8	2
Grayson Murphy	33	10	6	10	1
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylin Davies	43	1	0	0	6
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kamari Ramsey	40	3	0	2	4

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	180	315	57%	2638	21	7	8.4
Aidan Chiles	24	35	69%	309	4	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	194	1185	9	6.1	64
Deshaun Fenwick	96	515	5	5.4	38
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	68	219	6	3.2	26
Silas Bolden	9	84	2	9.3	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Silas Bolden	54	746	5	13.8	50
Anthony Gould	44	718	2	16.3	75
Jack Velling	29	438	8	15.1	41
Jesiah Irish	18	302	1	16.8	38

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	106	7	2	3	0
Kitan Oladapo	73	3	1	1	7
Akili Arnold	62	2	1	2	6
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.	28	10	10	4	2
John McCartan	47	9	5	4	2
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0
Joe Golden	42	4	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Robinson	33	1	1	0	8
Ryan Cooper Jr.	37	2	1	1	7
Jermod McCoy	31	1	0	1	7