Stanford at Oregon State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (5:30 PM EST)
Oregon State -21.5 (51.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oregon State 62 - Stanford: 17 (Pac-12)

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (13 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.4 - 9.6 (#132)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

STAN 2nd straight Road Game
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon State -28.5 (SP+ ORST -27)
Projected Score: STAN: 10 - ORST: 39 (49)
ORST Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
STAN Travel: 496 miles

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
STAN Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Stanford's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Stanford at Hawai'i	-2.0	54.0	W 37 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Stanford at USC	+28.5	70.5	L 10 - 56	U	N
Sat 9/16	Stanford vs Sacramento State	-7.0	60.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Stanford vs Arizona	+13.0	60.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Stanford vs Oregon	+27.0	59.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Stanford at Colorado	+13.0	59.0	W 46 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Stanford vs UCLA	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Stanford vs Washington	+27.5	62.0	L 33 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Stanford at Washington State	+13.0	59.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Stanford at Oregon State	+21.5	51.5	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/18	Stanford vs California	+6.5	52.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Stanford vs Notre Dame	+26.0	50.5	L 23 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN	.14	42%	18.8	45%	2.84	107	40%	254	4.16	.29	48%	29.2	54%	41%	4.05	41.3	1.8	1
ORST	.25	48%	17.6	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	29.4	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Offense	12	18.8	12.5	42%	4.16	1.8	21	362	107	254	3.4	41%	59%	45%	40%	18%	.14
ORST Defense	13	29.4	25.3	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Defense	12	29.2	32.3	47.6%	4.05	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	54%	41%	15%	.29
ORST Offense	13	17.6	21.7	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Stanford	12	29:53	20.8	38%	52%	4.6	41.3	1.8	1	5.4	1.8	0	24.8
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Offense	12	41%	45%	31.3	107.3	3.4	14	.02	2.84	85%	11%	0.84
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Defense	12	51%	54%	-	-	-	-	.39	3.68	83%	10%	1.11
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Offense	12	59%	40%	22.9	37.3	254.3	6.8	11.1	15	8	.25	1.5	31%	29%	.28	6%	2
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Defense	12	48%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.24	1.5	29%	31%	.36	5%	2.1
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -13.77 #129
Stanford's Offense Rating: 12.41 #107
Stanford's Defense Rating: 22.01 #133
2023 Talent Rating: 710.28 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #36
Stanford's 2023 Expected Record: 2.40 - 9.60
Stanford's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #109
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #94
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -13.77 Oregon State: 15.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -12.3 Oregon State: 14.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 15.53 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 653.16 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.5
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

Stanford's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 39
Stanford 10

Projected Total Points: 49

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Oregon State	62	Stanford	17	Oregon State -21.5	Oregon State	51.5	Over
2022	10/08	Stanford	27	Oregon State	28	Oregon State -4.5	Stanford	53.0	Over
2021	11/13	Oregon State	35	Stanford	14	Oregon State -12.5	Oregon State	56.5	Under
2020	12/12	Oregon State	24	Stanford	27	Stanford -2.5	Stanford	55.0	Under
2019	09/28	Oregon State	28	Stanford	31	Stanford -3.5	Oregon State	56.0	Over
2018	11/10	Stanford	48	Oregon State	17	Stanford -23.5	Stanford	61.5	Over
2017	10/26	Oregon State	14	Stanford	15	Stanford -18	Oregon State	56.5	Under
2016	11/05	Stanford	26	Oregon State	15	Stanford -16.5	Oregon State	42.5	Under
2015	09/25	Oregon State	24	Stanford	42	Stanford -16.5	Stanford	47.0	Over
2014	10/25	Stanford	38	Oregon State	14	Stanford -13.5	Stanford	0
2013	10/26	Oregon State	12	Stanford	20	Stanford -6	Stanford	0
2012	11/10	Stanford	27	Oregon State	23
2011	11/05	Oregon State	13	Stanford	38
2010	11/27	Stanford	38	Oregon State	0
2009	10/10	Oregon State	38	Stanford	28
2008	08/28	Stanford	36	Oregon State	28
2007	10/27	Oregon State	23	Stanford	6
2006	11/18	Stanford	7	Oregon State	30
2005	11/12	Oregon State	17	Stanford	20
2004	11/13	Stanford	19	Oregon State	24
2003	11/15	Oregon State	43	Stanford	3
2000	10/13	Oregon State	38	Stanford	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	9	5	5 Overs
Stanford	13	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 10	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 12	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4

(#129) STAN at (#17) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	STAN	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#129	#17
SP+SP+	#109	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#133	#19
OffenseOff	#118	#12
DefenseDef	#134	#58
Spec TeamsST	#80	#57
TalentTal	#37	#54
Blue ChipsBC%	#36	#66

Stanford Injury Report

Oregon State Injury Report

Stanford on Offense


CategoryCat	STAN Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#118	#58
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#107	#39
SP+SP+	#94	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Stanford Run Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#121	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#136

Stanford Pass Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#121	#105
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	STAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#134
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#10	#133
SP+SP+	#22	#117
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#29	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#76

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#132
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

STAN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Oregon State -21.5 (51.5)
Oregon State won vs Stanford this year (62-17)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat Stanford in 2023 (62-17)

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	191	327	58%	2247	11	8	6.9
Justin Lamson (Tr)	38	88	43%	504	0	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Lamson (Tr)	120	334	5	2.8	49
Ashton Daniels	110	296	3	2.7	24
E.J. Smith	53	216	1	4.1	34
Casey Filkins	38	215	1	5.7	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	62	1013	6	16.3	97
Tiger Bachmeier	36	409	2	11.4	41
Sam Roush	28	288	0	10.3	31
E.J. Smith	33	242	0	7.3	53

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April III (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel (Tr)	81	3	1	4	1
Tristan Sinclair	65	5	1	4	0
Collin Wright	51	4	1	0	4
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	6	5	2	0
Anthony Franklin	27	6	3	4	1
Tevarua Tafiti	46	5	3	9	1
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zahran Manley	28	2	0	4
Collin Wright	51	4	1	4
Alaka'i Gilman	45	0	0	3

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	180	315	57%	2638	21	7	8.4
Aidan Chiles	24	35	69%	309	4	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	194	1185	9	6.1	64
Deshaun Fenwick	96	515	5	5.4	38
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	68	219	6	3.2	26
Silas Bolden	9	84	2	9.3	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Silas Bolden	54	746	5	13.8	50
Anthony Gould	44	718	2	16.3	75
Jack Velling	29	438	8	15.1	41
Jesiah Irish	18	302	1	16.8	38

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	106	7	2	3	0
Kitan Oladapo	73	3	1	1	7
Akili Arnold	62	2	1	2	6
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.	28	10	10	4	2
John McCartan	47	9	5	4	2
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0
Joe Golden	42	4	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Robinson	33	1	1	0	8
Ryan Cooper Jr.	37	2	1	1	7
Jermod McCoy	31	1	0	1	7