Air Force at Wyoming - 2022 Matchup Preview

Friday, September 16th 2022 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -16.5 (47.0)
Wyoming 17 - Air Force: 14 (Mountain West)

Falcons (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (111 - 75)
Avg Score : 28 - 13 (24 - 15 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 16.2 MPH
WYO 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ AFA -14.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 24 - WYO: 19 (43)
AFA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
AFA Travel: 164 miles

Cowboys (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Craig Bohl (45 - 50)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
WYO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Northern Iowa	-14.5	46.5	W 48 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Colorado	-17.5	50.0	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/16	Air Force at Wyoming	-16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Fri 9/23	Air Force vs Nevada	-24.0	47.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-14.0	38.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Utah State	-11.5	54.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force at UNLV	-10.0	50.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Boise State	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 19	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Air Force vs Army	-7.0	40.5	W 13 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs New Mexico	-21.0	37.5	W 35 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	-22.0	43.0	W 24 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/26	Air Force at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 13 - 3	U	Y
Thu 12/22	Air Force vs Baylor	+3.5	42.0	W 30 - 15	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Wyoming's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Wyoming at Illinois	+14.0	42.5	L 6 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/3	Wyoming vs Tulsa	+6.5	47.0	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Wyoming vs Northern Colorado	-23.5	54.5	W 33 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/16	Wyoming vs Air Force	+16.5	47.0	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Wyoming at BYU	+21.5	50.0	L 24 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Wyoming vs San José State	+2.5	42.5	L 16 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/8	Wyoming at New Mexico	-3.0	37.0	W 27 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Wyoming vs Utah State	-5.0	44.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Wyoming at Hawai'i	-11.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Wyoming at Colorado State	-8.5	42.5	W 14 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/19	Wyoming vs Boise State	+14.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Fri 11/25	Wyoming at Fresno State	+15.0	50.5	L 0 - 30	U	N
Fri 12/30	Wyoming vs Ohio	+3.0	43.0	L 27 - 30	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	27.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	13.4	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
WYO	.12	41%	21.2	46%	3.26	181	35%	132	3.65	.17	41%	23.9	46%	37%	3.9	37.5	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
WYO	#127 (.05)	36% (126)		39% (111)	2.64 (122)	138	34% (125)	189	3.07 (126)	#102 (.23)	44% (96)		43% (70)	45% (113)	3.97 (86)	49.6	1.3	0.9

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	27.8	24	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
WYO Defense	13	23.9	21.3	41.1%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	37%	14%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	13.4	15.3	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
WYO Offense	13	21.2	25.2	40.7%	3.65	1.2	16	314	181	132	4.9	59%	40%	46%	35%	15%	.12

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
Wyoming	13	29:06	16	35%	29%	4.3	37.5	1.2	1.4	5.1	2.8	2	28.5

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
WYO Defense	13	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.38	81%	9%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
WYO Offense	13	59%	46%	36.8	181.4	4.9	16	.22	3.26	65%	8%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
WYO Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.19	1.6	35%	30%	.33	5%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
WYO Offense	13	40%	35%	12	23.4	132.2	5.7	11	11	12	.05	1.4	29%	25%	.16	7%	1.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #149
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2022 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #115
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #10

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Wyoming: -2.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 3.9 Wyoming: -10.8

Wyoming's Power Ratings
Wyoming's Power Rating: -2.9 NR
Wyoming's Offense Rating: NR
Wyoming's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Wyoming's 2022 Expected Record: -
Wyoming's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.8 #101
Wyoming's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.9 #125
Wyoming's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 13.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.3

Air Force's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 24
Wyoming 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 24
Wyoming 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 24
Wyoming 19

Total Points: 43

Wyoming Scoring
Offense: 21.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.2
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Wyoming's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Air Force	24	Wyoming	21	Air Force -4	Wyoming	56.5	Under
2024	09/28	Wyoming	31	Air Force	19	Air Force -4	Wyoming	33.5	Over
2023	10/14	Air Force	34	Wyoming	27	Air Force -12.5	Wyoming	42.0	Over
2022	09/16	Wyoming	17	Air Force	14	Air Force -16.5	Wyoming	47.0	Under
2021	10/09	Air Force	24	Wyoming	14	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	46.5	Under
2019	11/30	Air Force	20	Wyoming	6	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2018	11/17	Wyoming	35	Air Force	27	Wyoming -3	Wyoming	42.5	Over
2017	11/11	Air Force	14	Wyoming	28	Air Force -2.5	Wyoming	51.0	Under
2016	10/08	Wyoming	35	Air Force	26	Air Force -13.5	Wyoming	50.0	Over
2015	10/10	Air Force	31	Wyoming	17	Air Force -21.5	Wyoming	57.0	Under
2014	09/06	Wyoming	17	Air Force	13	Wyoming -1	Wyoming	0
2013	09/21	Air Force	23	Wyoming	56	Wyoming -2.5	Wyoming	0
2012	10/13	Wyoming	27	Air Force	28
2011	11/12	Air Force	17	Wyoming	25
2010	09/25	Wyoming	14	Air Force	20
2009	10/17	Air Force	10	Wyoming	0
2008	09/06	Wyoming	3	Air Force	23
2007	10/20	Air Force	20	Wyoming	12
2006	09/23	Wyoming	24	Air Force	31
2005	09/17	Air Force	28	Wyoming	29
2004	10/30	Wyoming	43	Air Force	26
2003	09/20	Air Force	35	Wyoming	29
2002	10/26	Wyoming	34	Air Force	26
2001	10/13	Air Force	24	Wyoming	13
2000	10/13	Wyoming	34	Air Force	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wyoming	11	10	4 Overs
Air Force	14	2	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	7 - 5	4 - 4	3 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 16	5 - 7	1 - 3	4 - 4

(#) AFA at (#) WYO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	WYO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#95
OffenseOff	#4	#93
DefenseDef	#29	#93
Spec TeamsST	#20	#45
TalentTal	#149	#125
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Wyoming Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#93
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#115	#63
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Run GameRun	#10	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#132

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#107	#124
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Wyoming on Offense


CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#29
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#125	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wyoming Run Game


CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#56	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Wyoming Pass Game


CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#132	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#23	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WYO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 63° - Wind: 16 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Air Force 16.5 (47.0)
Wyoming won vs Air Force this year (17-14)

Previous Matchups
Wyoming beat Air Force last year (31-19)
Air Force beat Wyoming in 2023 (34-27)
Wyoming beat Air Force in 2022 (17-14)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

WYO's OC Tim Polasek (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Wyoming's Full Roster

WYO's DC Jay Sawvel (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD