Colorado at Air Force - 2022 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 10th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -17.5 (50.0)
Air Force 41 - Colorado: 10

Buffaloes (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Karl Dorrell (8 - 10)
Avg Score : 15 - 45 (12 - 47 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -14.5 (SP+ AFA -24)
Projected Score: COLO: 15 - AFA: 39 (54)
AFA Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
COLO Travel: 74 miles

Falcons (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (111 - 75)
Avg Score : 28 - 13 (32 - 13 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
COLO Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Colorado vs TCU	+13.5	59.0	L 13 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/10	Colorado at Air Force	+17.5	50.0	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/17	Colorado at Minnesota	+28.0	47.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/24	Colorado vs UCLA	+22.0	57.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/1	Colorado at Arizona	+17.5	57.5	L 20 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Colorado vs California	+15.0	49.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Colorado at Oregon State	+23.0	47.5	L 9 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/29	Colorado vs Arizona State	+13.0	49.0	L 34 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Colorado vs Oregon	+31.0	62.5	L 10 - 49	U	N
Fri 11/11	Colorado at USC	+34.0	66.0	L 17 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/19	Colorado at Washington	+30.5	61.5	L 7 - 54	U	N
Sat 11/26	Colorado vs Utah	+30.0	52.0	L 21 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado's Schedule

Air Force's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Northern Iowa	-14.5	46.5	W 48 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Colorado	-17.5	50.0	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/16	Air Force at Wyoming	-16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Fri 9/23	Air Force vs Nevada	-24.0	47.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-14.0	38.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Utah State	-11.5	54.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force at UNLV	-10.0	50.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Boise State	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 19	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Air Force vs Army	-7.0	40.5	W 13 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs New Mexico	-21.0	37.5	W 35 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	-22.0	43.0	W 24 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/26	Air Force at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 13 - 3	U	Y
Thu 12/22	Air Force vs Baylor	+3.5	42.0	W 30 - 15	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO	.01	36%	15.4	42%	2.86	108	32%	173	3.3	.41	53%	44.5	55%	51%	4.9	48.3	1.8	1.1
AFA	.3	49%	27.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	13.4	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)		44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)		40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Offense	12	15.4	11.7	36.1%	3.3	1.8	16	281	108	173	3.4	47%	51%	42%	32%	23%	.01
AFA Defense	13	13.4	13	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Defense	12	44.5	47.3	52.7%	4.9	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	55%	51%	13%	.41
AFA Offense	13	27.8	31.9	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado	12	27:23	15.8	32%	37%	5.3	48.3	1.8	1.1	4.1	0.8	1	26.4
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Offense	12	47%	42%	32.3	108.3	3.4	11	.09	2.86	82%	13%	0.9
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Defense	12	48%	55%	-	-	-	-	.31	3.22	75%	8%	1.08
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Offense	12	51%	32%	14.9	30	172.9	5.8	11.6	10	10	.02	1.6	36%	21%	.15	10%	2.2
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Defense	12	52%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.53	1.6	27%	44%	.68	4%	2.1
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: NR
Colorado's Offense Rating: NR
Colorado's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Colorado's 2022 Expected Record: -
Colorado's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.4 #125
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #85
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #131

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado: Air Force: 4.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado: -20.4 Air Force: 3.9

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.45 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #149
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2022 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #115
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #10

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.7
Defense: 44.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 47.3

Colorado's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 6 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 39
Colorado 15

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 39
Colorado 17

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 38
Colorado 13

Total Points: 51

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.9
Defense: 13.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Air Force's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/10	Air Force	41	Colorado	10	Air Force -17.5	Air Force	50.0	Over
2019	09/14	Colorado	23	Air Force	30	Colorado -3	Air Force	58.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	2	2	1 Overs
Colorado	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#) COLO at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	COLO	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#125	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#5
OffenseOff	#127	#4
DefenseDef	#136	#29
Spec TeamsST	#76	#20
TalentTal	#61	#149
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Colorado Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Colorado on Offense


CategoryCat	COLO Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#29
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#85	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Colorado Run Game


CategoryCat	COLO Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#107	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Colorado Pass Game


CategoryCat	COLO Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#126	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#60	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	COLO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#136
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#115	#131
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	COLO Def
Run GameRun	#10	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#136

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	COLO Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#135
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

COLO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 48° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.008

Rematch from Week 2
Air Force -17.5 (50.0)
Air Force won vs Colorado this year (41-10)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Colorado in 2022 (41-10)

COLO's OC Mike Sanford Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Chris Wilson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD