Northwestern at Minnesota - 2022 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, November 12th 2022 (3:30 PM EST)
Minnesota -17 (40.5)
Minnesota 31 - Northwestern: 3 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (109 - 89)
Avg Score : 14 - 28 (11 - 26 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 28.2°
MINN is playing their 5th straight game
NW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -17 (SP+ MINN -29)
Projected Score: NW: 13 - MINN: 29 (42)
MINN Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
NW Travel: 342 miles

Golden Gophers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (35 - 23)
Avg Score : 28 - 14 (33 - 8 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Northwestern vs Nebraska	+12.0	52.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Northwestern vs Duke	-10.0	56.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/17	Northwestern vs Southern Illinois	-13.5	58.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-7.5	50.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Northwestern at Penn State	+25.5	50.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+10.0	44.5	L 7 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Northwestern at Maryland	+14.0	51.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Northwestern at Iowa	+11.5	37.0	L 13 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/5	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+37.5	55.0	L 7 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Northwestern at Minnesota	+17.0	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/19	Northwestern at Purdue	+17.5	44.5	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Northwestern vs Illinois	+15.0	38.0	L 3 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Minnesota's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Minnesota vs New Mexico State	-36.0	52.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Minnesota vs Western Illinois	-41.0	56.5	W 62 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Minnesota vs Colorado	-28.0	47.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Minnesota at Michigan State	-3.0	50.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Minnesota vs Purdue	-9.0	53.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Minnesota at Illinois	-4.5	40.0	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/22	Minnesota at Penn State	+5.5	43.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/29	Minnesota vs Rutgers	-14.0	40.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Minnesota at Nebraska	-14.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/12	Minnesota vs Northwestern	-17.0	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Minnesota vs Iowa	-2.0	31.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Minnesota at Wisconsin	+3.0	37.0	W 23 - 16	O	Y
Thu 12/29	Minnesota vs Syracuse	-10.5	45.0	W 28 - 20	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.01	37%	13.8	38%	2.63	125	38%	210	2.67	.17	45%	28.3	46%	44%	4.03	40.8	2.5	1.5
MINN	.24	48%	28.2	49%	3.3	207	48%	182	4.36	.12	37%	13.8	38%	36%	2.84	31.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	13.8	11.2	37.2%	2.67	2.5	19	335	125	210	3.2	51%	47%	38%	38%	18%	.01
MINN Defense	13	13.8	7.6	36.7%	2.84	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	36%	13%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	28.3	25.8	45.1%	4.03	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	46%	44%	13%	.17
MINN Offense	13	28.2	33	47.8%	4.36	1	22	390	207	182	4.6	64%	35%	49%	48%	12%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	29:01	19	37%	49%	4.6	40.8	2.5	1.5	4.5	1.9	0	26.9
Minnesota	13	34:28	21.5	52%	55%	3.5	31.8	1	1.6	3.3	1.5	1	29.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	38%	39.1	125.1	3.2	11	-.04	2.63	67%	9%	0.86
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.99	76%	7%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.16	74%	8%	0.92
MINN Offense	13	64%	49%	44.8	207.4	4.6	33	.22	3.3	85%	7%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	47%	38%	20.4	34.8	210.3	6.1	10.3	10	17	.15	1.4	33%	21%	.04	9%	1.9
MINN Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.17	1.5	37%	25%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.22	1.3	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.7
MINN Offense	13	35%	48%	13.2	21.6	182.2	8.4	13.8	12	9	.37	1.5	28%	40%	.45	5%	1.7

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2022 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #111
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #111
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Minnesota: 10.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -13.4 Minnesota: 16.0

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 10.5 NR
Minnesota's Offense Rating: NR
Minnesota's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Minnesota's 2022 Expected Record: -
Minnesota's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #16
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #90
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.6 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 13.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.2
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Northwestern's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 29
Northwestern 13

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 29
Northwestern 13

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 29
Northwestern 12

Total Points: 41

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 13.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.6

Minnesota's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Northwestern	38	Minnesota	35	Northwestern -4.0	Minnesota	41.0	Over
2023	09/23	Northwestern	37	Minnesota	34	Minnesota -11.5	Northwestern	39.5	Over
2022	11/12	Minnesota	31	Northwestern	3	Minnesota -17	Minnesota	40.5	Under
2021	10/30	Northwestern	14	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -7.5	Minnesota	43.5	Over
2019	11/23	Northwestern	22	Minnesota	38	Minnesota -15.5	Minnesota	41.0	Over
2018	11/17	Minnesota	14	Northwestern	24	Minnesota -3	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Northwestern	39	Minnesota	0	Northwestern -7	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2016	11/19	Minnesota	29	Northwestern	12	Minnesota -2	Minnesota	46.0	Under
2015	10/03	Northwestern	27	Minnesota	0	Northwestern -6.5	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2014	10/11	Minnesota	24	Northwestern	17	Minnesota -3.5	Minnesota	45.0	Under
2013	10/19	Northwestern	17	Minnesota	20	Northwestern -13	Minnesota	0
2012	10/13	Minnesota	13	Northwestern	21
2011	11/19	Northwestern	28	Minnesota	13
2010	10/02	Minnesota	28	Northwestern	29
2009	09/26	Northwestern	24	Minnesota	35
2008	11/01	Minnesota	17	Northwestern	24
2007	10/13	Northwestern	49	Minnesota	48
2004	09/25	Minnesota	43	Northwestern	17
2003	10/04	Northwestern	17	Minnesota	42
2002	10/10	Minnesota	45	Northwestern	42
2001	10/13	Northwestern	23	Minnesota	17
2000	10/27	Minnesota	35	Northwestern	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	10	7	4 Overs
Northwestern	12	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 10	6 - 5	5 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 12	5 - 6	2 - 1	3 - 5

(#) NW at (#) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#16
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#4
OffenseOff	#123	#2
DefenseDef	#129	#28
Spec TeamsST	#61	#37
TalentTal	#46	#50
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Minnesota Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#5
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#134	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#9

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#73
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#22	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#99

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#102
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 28° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Minnesota -17.0 (40.5)
Minnesota won vs Northwestern this year (31-3)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Minnesota in 2023 (37-34)
Minnesota beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-3)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MINN's OC Kirk Ciarrocca (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD