Northwestern at Penn State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions(#3)

Saturday, October 1st 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -25.5 (50.0)
Penn State 17 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (109 - 89)
Avg Score : 14 - 28 (11 - 26 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
PSU 2nd straight Home Game
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -20.5 (SP+ PSU -36)
Projected Score: NW: 14 - PSU: 29 (43)
PSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
NW Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs behind

Nittany Lions (11 - 2) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach James Franklin (66 - 34)
Avg Score : 36 - 18 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Northwestern vs Nebraska	+12.0	52.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Northwestern vs Duke	-10.0	56.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/17	Northwestern vs Southern Illinois	-13.5	58.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-7.5	50.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Northwestern at Penn State	+25.5	50.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+10.0	44.5	L 7 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Northwestern at Maryland	+14.0	51.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Northwestern at Iowa	+11.5	37.0	L 13 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/5	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+37.5	55.0	L 7 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Northwestern at Minnesota	+17.0	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/19	Northwestern at Purdue	+17.5	44.5	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Northwestern vs Illinois	+15.0	38.0	L 3 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Penn State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Penn State at Purdue	-3.5	53.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Penn State vs Ohio	-28.0	55.0	W 46 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Penn State at Auburn	-2.5	47.5	W 41 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Penn State vs Central Michigan	-28.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/1	Penn State vs Northwestern	-25.5	50.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Penn State at Michigan	+7.0	49.0	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/22	Penn State vs Minnesota	-5.5	43.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Penn State vs Ohio State	+15.5	60.5	L 31 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Penn State at Indiana	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Penn State vs Maryland	-10.5	56.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Penn State at Rutgers	-18.5	45.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Penn State vs Michigan State	-19.0	54.5	W 35 - 16	U	N
Mon 1/2	Penn State vs Utah	-1.5	55.5	W 35 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.01	37%	13.8	38%	2.63	125	38%	210	2.67	.17	45%	28.3	46%	44%	4.03	40.8	2.5	1.5
PSU	.26	43%	35.8	41%	3.03	181	46%	253	4.61	.08	38%	18.2	43%	36%	3.39	48.3	1.1	2.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	13.8	11.2	37.2%	2.67	2.5	19	335	125	210	3.2	51%	47%	38%	38%	18%	.01
PSU Defense	13	18.2	15.4	38.5%	3.39	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	43%	36%	25%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	28.3	25.8	45.1%	4.03	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	46%	44%	13%	.17
PSU Offense	13	35.8	33.9	43.4%	4.61	1.1	21	434	181	253	4.8	51%	49%	41%	46%	13%	.26

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	29:01	19	37%	49%	4.6	40.8	2.5	1.5	4.5	1.9	0	26.9
Penn State	13	30:33	21.2	38%	70%	5.3	48.3	1.1	2.7	7.8	3.2	2	30.1

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	38%	39.1	125.1	3.2	11	-.04	2.63	67%	9%	0.86
PSU Defense	13	41%	43%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.66	72%	15%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.16	74%	8%	0.92
PSU Offense	13	51%	41%	37.6	181.1	4.8	28	.18	3.03	75%	8%	1.17

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	47%	38%	20.4	34.8	210.3	6.1	10.3	10	17	.15	1.4	33%	21%	.04	9%	1.9
PSU Defense	13	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.06	1.5	37%	29%	.29	11%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.22	1.3	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.7
PSU Offense	13	49%	46%	20.8	32.5	252.5	7.8	12.2	29	7	.34	1.6	30%	33%	.42	5%	2.1

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2022 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #111
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #111
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Penn State: 13.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -13.4 Penn State: 22.4

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 13.7 NR
Penn State's Offense Rating: NR
Penn State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Penn State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Penn State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.4 #8
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #28
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.9 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 13.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.2
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Northwestern's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 29
Northwestern 14

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 26
Northwestern 12

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 31
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 46

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.4

Penn State's 2022 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Penn State	21	Northwestern	22	Penn State -20.5	Northwestern	46.5	Under
2023	09/30	Northwestern	13	Penn State	41	Penn State -27	Penn State	48.0	Over
2022	10/01	Penn State	17	Northwestern	7	Penn State -25.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2017	10/07	Northwestern	7	Penn State	31	Penn State -14.5	Penn State	51.5	Under
2015	11/07	Northwestern	23	Penn State	21	Northwestern -2	Push	41.0	Over
2014	09/27	Penn State	6	Northwestern	29	Penn State -9	Northwestern	0
2012	10/06	Penn State	39	Northwestern	28
2011	10/22	Northwestern	24	Penn State	34
2010	11/06	Penn State	35	Northwestern	21
2009	10/31	Northwestern	13	Penn State	34
2006	09/30	Penn State	33	Northwestern	7
2005	09/24	Northwestern	29	Penn State	34
2004	11/06	Penn State	7	Northwestern	14
2003	11/08	Northwestern	17	Penn State	7
2002	10/19	Penn State	49	Northwestern	0
2001	10/20	Northwestern	35	Penn State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	11	2	2 Overs
Northwestern	5	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 9	0 - 5	0 - 3	0 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 7	5 - 0	2 - 0	3 - 0

(#) NW at (#) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#8
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#34
OffenseOff	#123	#53
DefenseDef	#129	#34
Spec TeamsST	#61	#15
TalentTal	#46	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#34
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#11
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#134	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#105

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#6
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#73
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#82	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#99

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#102
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'22 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 52° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.008

Rematch from Week 5
Penn State -25.5 (50.0)
Penn State won vs Northwestern this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2023 (41-13)
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-7)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD