Troy at Texas State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Troy logo   Troy Trojans at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, October 16th 2021 (3:00 PM EDT)
Troy -7.5 (49.0)
Troy 31 - Texas State: 28  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chip Lindsey (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TXST 2nd straight Home Game
TROY is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -2.5  (SP+ TROY -9.5)
Projected Score: TROY: 26 - TXST: 31 (57)
TROY Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TROY Travel: 722 miles
Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Troy's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Troy vs Southern-25.055.0W 55 - 3OY
Sat 9/11 Troy vs Liberty+3.062.5L 13 - 21UN
Sat 9/18 Troy at Southern Miss-11.049.0W 21 - 9UY
Sat 9/25 Troy at UL Monroe-23.549.5L 16 - 29UN
Sat 10/2 Troy at South Carolina+6.543.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 10/9 Troy vs Georgia Southern-5.551.0W 27 - 24UN
Sat 10/16 Troy at Texas State-7.549.0W 31 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/28 Troy at Coastal Carolina+17.050.0L 28 - 35OY
Sat 11/6 Troy vs South Alabama-3.547.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 11/13 Troy vs Louisiana+6.548.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 11/20 Troy vs App State+10.051.0L 7 - 45ON
Sat 11/27 Troy at Georgia State+6.549.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Texas State vs Baylor+13.552.5L 20 - 29UY
Sat 9/11 Texas State at Florida International+2.055.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/18 Texas State vs Incarnate Word-10.570.0L 34 - 42ON
Sat 9/25 Texas State at Eastern Michigan+7.562.0L 21 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9 Texas State vs South Alabama+4.052.5W 33 - 31OY
Sat 10/16 Texas State vs Troy+7.549.0L 28 - 31OY
Sat 10/23 Texas State at Georgia State+10.058.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/30 Texas State at Louisiana+21.058.0L 0 - 45UN
Sat 11/6 Texas State vs UL Monroe-3.057.5W 27 - 19UY
Sat 11/13 Texas State vs Georgia Southern-2.552.0L 30 - 38ON
Sat 11/20 Texas State at Coastal Carolina+24.560.5L 21 - 35UY
Sat 11/27 Texas State at Arkansas State+2.062.0W 24 - 22UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY.1844%23.542%2.8510346%2903.33.1443%23.943%44%3.4950.21.61.3
TXST.1440%36.541%2.8613140%2393.7.2849%2949%49%4.3849.31.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1123.523.444.3%3.331.6223931032903.436%64%42%46%16%.18
TXST Defense122928.349.2%4.381.3 - - - - - 54%46%49%49%12%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1123.925.943.3%3.491.3 - - - - - 53%47%43%44%15%.14
TXST Offense1236.53840.3%3.71.5213701312394.244%56%41%40%20%.14

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1126:4921.846%59%550.21.61.362229.4
Texas State1225:4420.633%38%5.249.31.51.34.51327.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1136%42%29.8102.63.411.072.8563%9%0.92
TXST Defense1254%49% - - - - .183.1670%8%0.89
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1153%43% - - - - .072.870%10%0.95
TXST Offense1244%41%31131.44.215.142.8673%13%1.07

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1164%46%27.241.5290.2710.72213.241.430%37%.427%2
TXST Defense1246%49% - - - - - - 7.411.528%37%.485%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1147%44% - - - - - - 8.221.530%32%.245%1.7
TXST Offense1256%40%20.633.7238.77.111.62614.141.634%29%.197%2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Troy's 2021 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.5  #95
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1  #115
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy:    Texas State: -5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.5   Texas State: -16.0




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.5 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7  #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9  #121

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 31
Troy 26

Projected Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Texas State41Troy48Texas State -7.5Troy53.5Over
202410/03Troy17Texas State38Texas State -14.5Texas State56.0Under
202310/28Texas State13Troy31Troy -6.5Troy53.0Under
202210/15Troy17Texas State14Troy -16.5Texas State47.0Under
202110/16Texas State28Troy31Troy -7.5Texas State49.0Over
202010/10Troy37Texas State17Troy -7.0Troy59.0Under
201911/16Texas State27Troy63Troy -7Troy65.0Over
201811/17Troy12Texas State7Troy -23Texas State47.5Under
201711/24Troy62Texas State9Troy -23.5Troy53.5Over
201611/26Texas State7Troy40Troy -26.5Troy57.5Under
201311/29Troy42Texas State28Troy -4.5Troy0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State144 Overs
Troy1076 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 64 - 73 - 31 - 4
Road Teams6 - 57 - 44 - 13 - 3

(#) TROY at (#) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #95 #119
Perf GradeGrade #68 #105
OffenseOff #94 #71
DefenseDef #15 #117
Spec TeamsST #93 #50
TalentTal #91 #97
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Troy on Offense
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #94 #117
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #115 #121
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Troy Run Game
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #108 #97
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #88 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #125
Troy Pass Game
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #54 #127
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #46 #111
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Texas State on Offense
CategoryCatTXST OffTROY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #71 #15
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #111 #65
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas State Run Game
CategoryCat
TXST OffTROY Def
Run GameRun #102 #12
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #25 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #54
Texas State Pass Game
CategoryCatTXST OffTROY Def
Pass GamePass #105 #51
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #56 #49
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Troy 7.5 (49.0)
Troy won at Texas State this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Texas State last year (48-41)
Texas State beat Troy in 2024 (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)

  
TROY's OC Luke Meadows (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Brandon Hall (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD