Texas State at Georgia State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Georgia State Panthers

Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (2:00 PM EDT)
Georgia State -10 (58.5)
Georgia State 28 - Texas State: 16 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST coming off BYE
Our Line: -11.5 (SP+ GAST -18)
Projected Score: TXST: 35 - GAST: 26 (61)
GAST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
TXST Travel: 837 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (23 - 27)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas State vs Baylor	+13.5	52.5	L 20 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas State at Florida International	+2.0	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-10.5	70.0	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/25	Texas State at Eastern Michigan	+7.5	62.0	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	Texas State vs South Alabama	+4.0	52.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Texas State vs Troy	+7.5	49.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas State at Georgia State	+10.0	58.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/30	Texas State at Louisiana	+21.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	57.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/20	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	+24.5	60.5	L 21 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Texas State at Arkansas State	+2.0	62.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Georgia State vs Army	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/11	Georgia State at North Carolina	+26.0	65.0	L 17 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/18	Georgia State vs Charlotte	-4.5	62.5	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Georgia State at Auburn	+27.5	57.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Georgia State vs App State	+10.5	54.5	L 16 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/9	Georgia State at UL Monroe	-16.0	49.5	W 55 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Georgia State vs Texas State	-10.0	58.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-6.0	55.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Thu 11/4	Georgia State at Louisiana	+13.5	53.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+12.5	53.5	W 42 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-15.5	66.0	W 28 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/27	Georgia State vs Troy	-6.5	49.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Georgia State vs Ball State	-6.0	52.5	W 51 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.14	40%	36.5	41%	2.86	131	40%	239	3.7	.28	49%	29	49%	49%	4.38	49.3	1.5	1.3
GAST	.17	42%	19.8	42%	2.72	194	42%	230	4.55	.13	41%	37.8	40%	41%	3.45	58.3	2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	40.3%	3.7	1.5	21	370	131	239	4.2	44%	56%	41%	40%	20%	.14
GAST Defense	10	37.8	30.3	40.6%	3.45	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	40%	41%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	49.2%	4.38	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	49%	49%	12%	.28
GAST Offense	10	19.8	21.5	41.9%	4.55	2	21	424	194	230	4.4	57%	43%	42%	42%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	25:44	20.6	33%	38%	5.2	49.3	1.5	1.3	4.5	1	3	27.4
Georgia State	10	28:38	20.7	45%	64%	5.5	58.3	2	2.1	7.4	3.2	1	34.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	44%	41%	31	131.4	4.2	15	.14	2.86	73%	13%	1.07
GAST Defense	10	43%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.75	56%	12%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	54%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.16	70%	8%	0.89
GAST Offense	10	57%	42%	44.1	193.7	4.4	22	.12	2.72	64%	11%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	40%	20.6	33.7	238.7	7.1	11.6	26	14	.14	1.6	34%	29%	.19	7%	2
GAST Defense	10	57%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.19	1.7	32%	34%	.32	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.41	1.5	28%	37%	.48	5%	2
GAST Offense	10	43%	42%	17.9	30.7	230.3	7.5	12.9	18	10	.24	1.7	30%	35%	.41	6%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #121

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: Georgia State: 3.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -16.0 Georgia State: 1.8

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: 3.4 NR
Georgia State's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Georgia State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Georgia State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #71
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #78
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 35
Georgia State 26

Projected Total Points: 61

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Texas State	44	Georgia State	52	Texas State -23	Georgia State	59.5	Over
2021	10/23	Georgia State	28	Texas State	16	Georgia State -10	Georgia State	58.5	Under
2019	09/21	Texas State	37	Georgia State	34	Texas State -3	Push	62.5	Over
2018	11/03	Georgia State	30	Texas State	40	Georgia State -7	Texas State	53.0	Over
2017	11/11	Texas State	30	Georgia State	33	Georgia State -5.5	Texas State	51.5	Over
2016	10/08	Georgia State	41	Texas State	21	Georgia State -8.5	Georgia State	58.0	Over
2015	11/14	Texas State	19	Georgia State	41	Texas State -5	Georgia State	64.0	Under
2014	11/29	Georgia State	31	Texas State	54	Texas State -11	Texas State	0
2013	10/19	Texas State	24	Georgia State	17	Texas State -19	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	5	5	5 Overs
Texas State	4	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 5	3 - 5	2 - 4	1 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 4	5 - 3	1 - 1	4 - 2

(#) TXST at (#) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#60
OffenseOff	#71	#62
DefenseDef	#117	#63
Spec TeamsST	#50	#95
TalentTal	#97	#102
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Texas State Injury Report

Georgia State Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#65
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#102	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#56	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#78	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#56	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#110	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Georgia State -10.0 (58.5)
Georgia State won vs Texas State this year (28-16)

Previous Matchups
Georgia State beat Texas State in 2024 (52-44)

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

GAST's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD