South Alabama at Texas State - 2021 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, October 9th 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -4 (52.5)
Texas State 33 - South Alabama: 31 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST coming off BYE
Our Line: -2 (SP+ USA -9)
Projected Score: USA: 27 - TXST: 35 (62)
USA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 592 miles

Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	-2.0	56.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/11	South Alabama at Bowling Green	-14.5	48.0	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/18	South Alabama vs Alcorn State	-21.5	44.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	South Alabama vs Louisiana	+12.0	52.5	L 18 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/9	South Alabama at Texas State	-4.0	52.5	L 31 - 33	O	N
Thu 10/14	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	49.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/23	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-13.5	51.5	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/30	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-9.5	67.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	South Alabama at Troy	+3.5	47.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/13	South Alabama at App State	+21.5	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/20	South Alabama at Tennessee	+28.5	61.5	L 14 - 60	O	N
Fri 11/26	South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina	+14.5	55.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Texas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas State vs Baylor	+13.5	52.5	L 20 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas State at Florida International	+2.0	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-10.5	70.0	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/25	Texas State at Eastern Michigan	+7.5	62.0	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	Texas State vs South Alabama	+4.0	52.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Texas State vs Troy	+7.5	49.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas State at Georgia State	+10.0	58.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/30	Texas State at Louisiana	+21.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	57.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/20	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	+24.5	60.5	L 21 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Texas State at Arkansas State	+2.0	62.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.11	38%	26.5	39%	2.49	113	38%	247	2.75	.22	47%	30.4	44%	50%	3.55	34.9	1.4	1.2
TXST	.14	40%	36.5	41%	2.86	131	40%	239	3.7	.28	49%	29	49%	49%	4.38	49.3	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	11	26.5	25.2	38.3%	2.75	1.4	20	360	113	247	3	50%	50%	39%	38%	20%	.11
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	49.2%	4.38	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	49%	49%	12%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	11	30.4	32	46.5%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	44%	50%	14%	.22
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	40.3%	3.7	1.5	21	370	131	239	4.2	44%	56%	41%	40%	20%	.14

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	11	30:24	19.8	40%	47%	3.8	34.9	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.1	1	27.5
Texas State	12	25:44	20.6	33%	38%	5.2	49.3	1.5	1.3	4.5	1	3	27.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	11	50%	39%	38.1	112.5	3	7	-.02	2.49	75%	14%	0.85
TXST Defense	12	54%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.16	70%	8%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	11	54%	44%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.89	56%	8%	0.89
TXST Offense	12	44%	41%	31	131.4	4.2	15	.14	2.86	73%	13%	1.07

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	11	50%	38%	19.8	31.8	247.1	7.8	12.5	18	6	.25	1.9	37%	28%	.33	6%	2.3
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.41	1.5	28%	37%	.48	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	11	46%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.38	1.6	28%	34%	.3	6%	2
TXST Offense	12	56%	40%	20.6	33.7	238.7	7.1	11.6	26	14	.14	1.6	34%	29%	.19	7%	2

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Alabama's 2021 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #99
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #107
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: Texas State: -5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -7.2 Texas State: -16.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.5 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #121

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 35
South Alabama 27

Projected Total Points: 62

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Texas State	49	South Alabama	26	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	62.5	Over
2024	11/29	South Alabama	38	Texas State	45	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	60.5	Over
2023	11/25	Texas State	52	South Alabama	44	South Alabama -6.5	Texas State	57.0	Over
2022	11/12	South Alabama	38	Texas State	21	South Alabama -16	South Alabama	46.0	Over
2021	10/09	Texas State	33	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -4	Texas State	52.5	Over
2020	10/17	South Alabama	30	Texas State	20	South Alabama -4.5	South Alabama	57.5	Under
2019	11/09	Texas State	30	South Alabama	28	Texas State -7	South Alabama	41.0	Over
2018	09/15	South Alabama	41	Texas State	31	South Alabama -10	Push	49.0	Over
2015	10/24	Texas State	36	South Alabama	18	Texas State -5	Texas State	63.0	Under
2014	11/15	South Alabama	24	Texas State	20	South Alabama -4	Push	0
2013	10/26	Texas State	33	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -1	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	7	6	7 Overs
South Alabama	4	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 1	7 - 2	4 - 1	3 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 10	2 - 7	1 - 3	1 - 4

(#) USA at (#) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#99	#119
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#105
OffenseOff	#106	#71
DefenseDef	#65	#117
Spec TeamsST	#110	#50
TalentTal	#101	#97
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Alabama Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#106	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#102	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#65
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#102	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#114

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
South Alabama 4.0 (52.5)
Texas State won vs South Alabama this year (33-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat South Alabama last year (49-26)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (45-38)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2023 (52-44)

USA's OC Major Applewhite (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD