UL Monroe at Texas State - 2021 Matchup Preview

UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 6th 2021 (3:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -3 (57.5)
Texas State 27 - UL Monroe: 19 (Sun Belt)

Warhawks (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (1 - 1)
Avg Score : 21 - 34 (16 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ULM 2nd straight Road Game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
ULM is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ TXST -4)
Projected Score: ULM: 28 - TXST: 35 (63)
TXST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ULM Travel: 391 miles

Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 23 - 33 (29 - 32 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULM Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UL Monroe's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	UL Monroe at Kentucky	+31.0	54.0	L 10 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/18	UL Monroe vs Jackson State	-4.5	52.0	W 12 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/25	UL Monroe vs Troy	+23.5	49.5	W 29 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/2	UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina	+33.5	57.5	L 6 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/9	UL Monroe vs Georgia State	+16.0	49.5	L 21 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/16	UL Monroe vs Liberty	+32.5	57.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/23	UL Monroe vs South Alabama	+13.5	51.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/30	UL Monroe at App State	+26.5	57.5	L 28 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/6	UL Monroe at Texas State	+3.0	57.5	L 19 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/13	UL Monroe vs Arkansas State	-3.0	66.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/20	UL Monroe at LSU	+29.0	57.5	L 14 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/27	UL Monroe at Louisiana	+21.5	56.0	L 16 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule

Texas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas State vs Baylor	+13.5	52.5	L 20 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas State at Florida International	+2.0	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-10.5	70.0	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/25	Texas State at Eastern Michigan	+7.5	62.0	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	Texas State vs South Alabama	+4.0	52.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Texas State vs Troy	+7.5	49.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas State at Georgia State	+10.0	58.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/30	Texas State at Louisiana	+21.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	57.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/20	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	+24.5	60.5	L 21 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Texas State at Arkansas State	+2.0	62.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	.08	33%	20.9	34%	2.48	134	32%	194	3.4	.27	47%	33.5	46%	48%	4.34	32.6	1.3	1.6
TXST	.18	42%	23.1	46%	3.43	149	39%	193	4.12	.31	48%	33	47%	49%	4.18	58.8	1.7	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	#94 (.15)	37% (121)		40% (102)	2.93 (87)	173	33% (128)	135	3.33 (117)	#89 (.2)	47% (120)		53% (134)	39% (53)	4.12 (99)	43.3	1.3	1.1
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Offense	12	20.9	15.5	33%	3.4	1.3	19	328	134	194	3.2	52%	48%	34%	32%	21%	.08
TXST Defense	12	33	31.7	47.9%	4.18	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	49%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Defense	12	33.5	39.7	46.6%	4.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	46%	48%	15%	.27
TXST Offense	12	23.1	28.7	41.8%	4.12	1.7	20	342	149	193	4	48%	50%	46%	39%	21%	.18

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UL Monroe	12	28:49	18.6	34%	52%	3.8	32.6	1.3	1.6	4.8	1.9	1	28.4
Texas State	12	28:18	20.1	33%	67%	5.8	58.8	1.7	1.1	4.7	1.5	1	26.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Offense	12	52%	34%	41.7	134.4	3.2	13		2.48	76%	16%	1.02
TXST Defense	12	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.24	3.51	81%	10%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Defense	12	49%	46%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.31	69%	10%	0.93
TXST Offense	12	48%	46%	36.9	149.2	4	17	.16	3.43	84%	14%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Offense	12	48%	32%	16.7	29.5	194	6.6	11.6	15	9	.17	1.9	38%	30%	.4	5%	2.3
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.4	30%	40%	.54	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Defense	12	51%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.39	1.6	28%	31%	.44	6%	2.1
TXST Offense	12	50%	39%	18.6	32.3	193.1	6	10.4	15	12	.22	1.5	36%	28%	.36	7%	2.2

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: NR
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: NR
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UL Monroe's 2021 Expected Record: -
UL Monroe's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.3 #125
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.6 #128
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: Texas State: -5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -20.3 Texas State: -16.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.5 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #121

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 33.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.7

UL Monroe's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 35
UL Monroe 28

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 38
UL Monroe 31

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 31
UL Monroe 25

Total Points: 56

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.7
Defense: 33 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.7

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Texas State	31	UL Monroe	14	Texas State -20.5	UL Monroe	59.5	Under
2024	11/09	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	50.0	Over
2023	10/14	Texas State	21	UL Monroe	20	Texas State -18.5	UL Monroe	64.5	Under
2022	11/05	UL Monroe	31	Texas State	30	Louisiana Monroe -2.5	Texas State	52.5	Over
2021	11/06	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	19	Texas State -3	Texas State	57.5	Under
2020	09/19	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -3	Texas State	58.0	Under
2019	10/10	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	24	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	UL Monroe	60.5	Under
2018	10/20	UL Monroe	20	Texas State	14	Louisiana Monroe -10.5	Texas State	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	45	Louisiana Monroe -6	UL Monroe	55.0	Over
2016	10/15	UL Monroe	40	Texas State	34	Louisiana Monroe -4.5	UL Monroe	66.5	Over
2015	11/19	Texas State	16	UL Monroe	3	Texas State -5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2014	10/25	UL Monroe	18	Texas State	22	Louisiana Monroe -2	Texas State	0
2013	10/12	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	21	Texas State -6	UL Monroe	0
2000	09/29	UL Monroe	7	Texas State	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	8	7	4 Overs
UL Monroe	6	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	3 - 10	3 - 6	0 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 7	10 - 3	4 - 0	6 - 3

(#) ULM at (#) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULM	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#125	#119
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#105
OffenseOff	#134	#71
DefenseDef	#103	#117
Spec TeamsST	#128	#50
TalentTal	#122	#97
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

UL Monroe Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

UL Monroe on Offense


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#128	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UL Monroe Run Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#135	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#136	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

UL Monroe Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#128	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#131	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#103
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
Run GameRun	#102	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#116

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#86
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 70°

Rematch from Week 10
Texas State -3.0 (57.5)
Texas State won vs UL Monroe this year (27-19)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UL Monroe last year (38-17)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (21-20)
UL Monroe beat Texas State in 2022 (31-30)

ULM's OC Rich Rodriguez (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD