Georgia Southern at Texas State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Georgia Southern Eagles at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 13th 2021 (3:00 PM EST)
Texas State -2.5 (52.0)
Georgia Southern 38 - Texas State: 30 (Sun Belt)

Eagles (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (28 - 20)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Home Game
TXST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ GASO -0.5)
Projected Score: GASO: 26 - TXST: 35 (61)
TXST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
GASO Travel: 969 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GASO Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Georgia Southern vs Gardner-Webb	-27.5	48.0	W 30 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/11	Georgia Southern at Florida Atlantic	+6.5	48.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/18	Georgia Southern at Arkansas	+23.0	53.5	L 10 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/25	Georgia Southern vs Louisiana	+14.5	54.5	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State	-1.5	66.5	W 59 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Georgia Southern at Troy	+5.5	51.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 10/14	Georgia Southern at South Alabama	+2.5	49.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	+6.0	55.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/6	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	+16.0	56.5	L 8 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/13	Georgia Southern at Texas State	+2.5	52.0	W 38 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Georgia Southern vs BYU	+20.0	57.0	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Georgia Southern at App State	+24.5	55.0	L 3 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Texas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas State vs Baylor	+13.5	52.5	L 20 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas State at Florida International	+2.0	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-10.5	70.0	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/25	Texas State at Eastern Michigan	+7.5	62.0	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	Texas State vs South Alabama	+4.0	52.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Texas State vs Troy	+7.5	49.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas State at Georgia State	+10.0	58.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/30	Texas State at Louisiana	+21.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	57.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/20	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	+24.5	60.5	L 21 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Texas State at Arkansas State	+2.0	62.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	.19	45%	27.9	46%	3.26	267	39%	104	3.75	.1	38%	32.3	40%	37%	2.95	33.8	1.3	2
TXST	.14	40%	36.5	41%	2.86	131	40%	239	3.7	.28	49%	29	49%	49%	4.38	49.3	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	27.9	19.5	44.6%	3.75	1.3	17	371	267	104	5.4	77%	23%	46%	39%	13%	.19
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	49.2%	4.38	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	49%	49%	12%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	32.3	35.3	38.1%	2.95	2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	40%	37%	19%	.1
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	40.3%	3.7	1.5	21	370	131	239	4.2	44%	56%	41%	40%	20%	.14

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	31:54	17.2	40%	47%	4.1	33.8	1.3	2	6.1	1.8	4	28.4
Texas State	12	25:44	20.6	33%	38%	5.2	49.3	1.5	1.3	4.5	1	3	27.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	77%	46%	49.2	267.1	5.4	29	.21	3.26	72%	10%	1
TXST Defense	12	54%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.16	70%	8%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.43	61%	11%	0.98
TXST Offense	12	44%	41%	31	131.4	4.2	15	.14	2.86	73%	13%	1.07

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	23%	39%	7.4	13.4	104.2	7.8	14.1	9	11	.1	1.5	25%	25%	.13	4%	1.6
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.41	1.5	28%	37%	.48	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	18	.14	1.6	36%	28%	.22	8%	1.8
TXST Offense	12	56%	40%	20.6	33.7	238.7	7.1	11.6	26	14	.14	1.6	34%	29%	.19	7%	2

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: NR
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Georgia Southern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Georgia Southern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.3 #118
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #122
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: Texas State: -5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -15.3 Texas State: -16.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.5 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #121

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 35
Georgia Southern 26

Projected Total Points: 61

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Texas State	45	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia Southern -2	Texas State	69.0	Push
2021	11/13	Texas State	30	Georgia Southern	38	Texas State -2.5	Georgia Southern	52.0	Over
2020	11/14	Georgia Southern	40	Texas State	38	Georgia Southern -11	Texas State	50.0	Over
2018	10/11	Texas State	13	Georgia Southern	15	Georgia Southern -17	Texas State	52.0	Under
2015	10/29	Georgia Southern	37	Texas State	13	Georgia Southern -18.5	Georgia Southern	65.0	Under
2014	11/08	Texas State	25	Georgia Southern	28	Georgia Southern -8	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	1	4	2 Overs
Georgia Southern	5	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	4 - 2	1 - 2	3 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 3	2 - 4	0 - 3	2 - 1

(#) GASO at (#) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#118	#119
Perf GradeGrade	#129	#105
OffenseOff	#125	#71
DefenseDef	#127	#117
Spec TeamsST	#103	#50
TalentTal	#109	#97
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Georgia Southern Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense


CategoryCat	GASO Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#122	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia Southern Run Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#108	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

Georgia Southern Pass Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#84	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GASO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#127
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#111
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#102	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#124

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Texas State -2.5 (52.0)
Georgia Southern won at Texas State this year (38-30)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Georgia Southern in 2023 (45-24)

GASO's OC Doug Ruse (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Scot Sloan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD