Troy at Georgia State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 27th 2021 (2:00 PM EST)
Georgia State -6.5 (49.5)
Georgia State 37 - Troy: 10 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chip Lindsey (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST 2nd straight Home Game
GAST is playing their 6th straight game
TROY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ GAST -8)
Projected Score: TROY: 29 - GAST: 23 (52)
GAST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TROY Travel: 162 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (23 - 27)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Troy vs Southern	-25.0	55.0	W 55 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Troy vs Liberty	+3.0	62.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/18	Troy at Southern Miss	-11.0	49.0	W 21 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	49.5	L 16 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/2	Troy at South Carolina	+6.5	43.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/9	Troy vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	51.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/16	Troy at Texas State	-7.5	49.0	W 31 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/28	Troy at Coastal Carolina	+17.0	50.0	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Troy vs South Alabama	-3.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Troy vs Louisiana	+6.5	48.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Troy vs App State	+10.0	51.0	L 7 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/27	Troy at Georgia State	+6.5	49.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Georgia State vs Army	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/11	Georgia State at North Carolina	+26.0	65.0	L 17 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/18	Georgia State vs Charlotte	-4.5	62.5	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Georgia State at Auburn	+27.5	57.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Georgia State vs App State	+10.5	54.5	L 16 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/9	Georgia State at UL Monroe	-16.0	49.5	W 55 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Georgia State vs Texas State	-10.0	58.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-6.0	55.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Thu 11/4	Georgia State at Louisiana	+13.5	53.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+12.5	53.5	W 42 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-15.5	66.0	W 28 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/27	Georgia State vs Troy	-6.5	49.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Georgia State vs Ball State	-6.0	52.5	W 51 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	.18	44%	23.5	42%	2.85	103	46%	290	3.33	.14	43%	23.9	43%	44%	3.49	50.2	1.6	1.3
GAST	.17	42%	19.8	42%	2.72	194	42%	230	4.55	.13	41%	37.8	40%	41%	3.45	58.3	2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	11	23.5	23.4	44.3%	3.33	1.6	22	393	103	290	3.4	36%	64%	42%	46%	16%	.18
GAST Defense	10	37.8	30.3	40.6%	3.45	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	40%	41%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	11	23.9	25.9	43.3%	3.49	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	43%	44%	15%	.14
GAST Offense	10	19.8	21.5	41.9%	4.55	2	21	424	194	230	4.4	57%	43%	42%	42%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	11	26:49	21.8	46%	59%	5	50.2	1.6	1.3	6	2	2	29.4
Georgia State	10	28:38	20.7	45%	64%	5.5	58.3	2	2.1	7.4	3.2	1	34.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	11	36%	42%	29.8	102.6	3.4	11	.07	2.85	63%	9%	0.92
GAST Defense	10	43%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.75	56%	12%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	11	53%	43%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.8	70%	10%	0.95
GAST Offense	10	57%	42%	44.1	193.7	4.4	22	.12	2.72	64%	11%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	11	64%	46%	27.2	41.5	290.2	7	10.7	22	13	.24	1.4	30%	37%	.42	7%	2
GAST Defense	10	57%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.19	1.7	32%	34%	.32	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	11	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.22	1.5	30%	32%	.24	5%	1.7
GAST Offense	10	43%	42%	17.9	30.7	230.3	7.5	12.9	18	10	.24	1.7	30%	35%	.41	6%	2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Troy's 2021 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.5 #95
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #115
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: Georgia State: 3.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.5 Georgia State: 1.8

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: 3.4 NR
Georgia State's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Georgia State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Georgia State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #71
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #78
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 29
Georgia State 23

Projected Total Points: 52

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Troy	31	Georgia State	19	Troy -9.5	Troy	51.0	Under
2023	09/30	Georgia State	7	Troy	28	Georgia State -1	Troy	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Georgia State	37	Troy	10	Georgia State -6.5	Georgia State	49.5	Under
2020	10/24	Troy	34	Georgia State	36	Troy -1.5	Georgia State	68.5	Over
2019	10/26	Georgia State	52	Troy	33	Troy -1	Georgia State	67.0	Over
2018	10/04	Troy	37	Georgia State	20	Troy -17	Push	55.5	Over
2017	10/21	Georgia State	10	Troy	34	Troy -7	Troy	51.5	Under
2016	10/15	Troy	31	Georgia State	21	Troy -16.5	Georgia State	54.0	Under
2015	11/27	Georgia State	31	Troy	21	Georgia State -1	Georgia State	56.0	Under
2014	11/08	Troy	45	Georgia State	21	Troy -8.5	Troy	0
2013	10/12	Georgia State	28	Troy	35	Troy -16	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	4	6	3 Overs
Troy	7	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	6 - 4	4 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	4 - 6	1 - 2	3 - 4

(#) TROY at (#) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#95	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#68	#60
OffenseOff	#94	#62
DefenseDef	#15	#63
Spec TeamsST	#93	#95
TalentTal	#91	#102
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Troy Injury Report

Georgia State Injury Report

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#94	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#115	#65
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#108	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#46	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#15
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#78	#65
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#56	#12
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#54

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#110	#49
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Georgia State -6.5 (49.5)
Georgia State won vs Troy this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Georgia State last year (31-19)
Troy beat Georgia State in 2023 (28-7)

TROY's OC Luke Meadows (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Brandon Hall (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

GAST's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD