Illinois at Penn State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Illinois logo   Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions  Penn State logo
Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -24.5 (46.0)
Illinois 20 - Penn State: 18  (Big Ten)

 
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ILL coming off BYE
PSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -7.5  (SP+ PSU -10)
Projected Score: ILL: 23 - PSU: 31 (54)
PSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
ILL Travel: 548 miles, 1 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (63 - 28)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Illinois's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28 Illinois vs Nebraska+6.552.0W 30 - 22UY
Sat 9/4 Illinois vs UTSA-4.552.0L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/11 Illinois at Virginia+10.557.0L 14 - 42UN
Fri 9/17 Illinois vs Maryland+7.061.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/25 Illinois at Purdue+10.553.5L 9 - 13UY
Sat 10/2 Illinois vs Charlotte-10.054.0W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/9 Illinois vs Wisconsin+12.542.0L 0 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Illinois at Penn State+24.546.0W 20 - 18UY
Sat 10/30 Illinois vs Rutgers+1.541.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 11/6 Illinois at Minnesota+14.544.5W 14 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20 Illinois at Iowa+12.037.5L 23 - 33OY
Sat 11/27 Illinois vs Northwestern-7.045.0W 47 - 14OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Penn State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Penn State at Wisconsin+5.548.5W 16 - 10UY
Sat 9/11 Penn State vs Ball State-23.058.0W 44 - 13UY
Sat 9/18 Penn State vs Auburn-4.053.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 9/25 Penn State vs Villanova-29.553.0W 38 - 17ON
Sat 10/2 Penn State vs Indiana-12.054.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 10/9 Penn State at Iowa+2.541.0L 20 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Penn State vs Illinois-24.546.0L 18 - 20UN
Sat 10/30 Penn State at Ohio State+18.560.5L 24 - 33UY
Sat 11/6 Penn State at Maryland-10.056.5W 31 - 14UY
Sat 11/13 Penn State vs Michigan+2.548.0L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/20 Penn State vs Rutgers-14.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/27 Penn State at Michigan State-3.551.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 1/1 Penn State vs Arkansas+3.551.0L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL.1439%29.443%2.9419531%1532.92.3250%23.649%52%4.4450.11.11.9
PSU.1844%3142%2.9417445%2553.47.1240%20.540%39%3.5437.21.91
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Offense829.426.638.6%2.921.1183481951534.861%39%43%31%16%.14
PSU Defense920.515.139.6%3.541 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Defense823.635.650.4%4.441.9 - - - - - 58%42%49%52%14%.32
PSU Offense9313443.7%3.471.9254301742553.953%47%42%45%14%.18

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Illinois827:021838%47%4.950.11.11.95.62.3027.8
Penn State933:3824.842%50%4.337.21.916.62.3128.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Offense861%43%40.6194.94.89.162.9474%11%1.11
PSU Defense951%40% - - - - .052.5671%12%1.01
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Defense858%49% - - - - .23.4285%10%0.96
PSU Offense953%42%44.7174.33.915.062.9464%9%0.87

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Offense839%31%11.424.3152.96.313.4104.121.935%30%.245%2.1
PSU Defense949%39% - - - - - - 4.21.533%26%.216%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Defense842%52% - - - - - - 7.471.525%32%.394%2.1
PSU Offense947%45%20.434255.37.512.5179.31.629%41%.365%1.8

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3  #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois:    Penn State: 9.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 4.3   Penn State: 14.3




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 9.65 NR
Penn State's Offense Rating: NR
Penn State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Penn State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Penn State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3  #19
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0  #72
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6  #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 31
Illinois 23

Projected Total Points: 54
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Penn State21Illinois7Penn State -19.5Illinois48.0Under
202309/16Illinois13Penn State30Penn State -14Penn State47.5Under
202110/23Penn State18Illinois20Penn State -24.5Illinois46.0Under
202012/19Penn State56Illinois21Penn State -16Penn State53.5Over
201809/21Illinois24Penn State63Penn State -26.5Penn State61.0Over
201510/31Penn State39Illinois0Penn State -4Penn State44.5Under
201411/22Illinois16Penn State14Penn State -4.5Illinois0
201311/02Penn State24Illinois17Penn State -10Illinois0
201209/29Illinois7Penn State35
201110/29Penn State10Illinois7
201010/09Penn State13Illinois33
200910/03Illinois17Penn State35
200809/27Penn State38Illinois24
200709/29Illinois27Penn State20
200610/21Penn State26Illinois12
200510/22Illinois10Penn State63
200211/02Penn State18Illinois7
200111/10Illinois33Penn State28
200010/20Penn State39Illinois25
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State1442 Overs
Illinois544 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 73 - 52 - 31 - 2
Road Teams7 - 125 - 32 - 13 - 2

(#) ILL at (#) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatILLPSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #64 #19
Perf GradeGrade #53 #71
OffenseOff #84 #88
DefenseDef #39 #57
Spec TeamsST #26 #11
TalentTal #51 #16
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Illinois on Offense
CategoryCat
ILL OffPSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #57
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #99 #6
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #77 #96
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #63
Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #127 #5
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #100 #79
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCatPSU OffILL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #88 #39
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #72 #32
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffILL Def
Run GameRun #125 #78
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #12
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCatPSU OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #85 #24
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #67 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Penn State -24.5 (46.0)
Illinois won at Penn State this year (20-18)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Illinois in 2024 (21-7)
Penn State beat Illinois in 2023 (30-13)

  
ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Anthony Poindexter / Brent Pry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD