Illinois at Penn State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -24.5 (46.0)
Illinois 20 - Penn State: 18 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 22 (16 - 22 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ILL coming off BYE
PSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ PSU -10)
Projected Score: ILL: 15 - PSU: 24 (39)
PSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
ILL Travel: 548 miles, 1 hrs behind

Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (63 - 28)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (28 - 13 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Illinois vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.0	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Illinois vs UTSA	-4.5	52.0	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/11	Illinois at Virginia	+10.5	57.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Fri 9/17	Illinois vs Maryland	+7.0	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Illinois at Purdue	+10.5	53.5	L 9 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Illinois vs Charlotte	-10.0	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/9	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+12.5	42.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Illinois at Penn State	+24.5	46.0	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Illinois vs Rutgers	+1.5	41.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/6	Illinois at Minnesota	+14.5	44.5	W 14 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Illinois at Iowa	+12.0	37.5	L 23 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Illinois vs Northwestern	-7.0	45.0	W 47 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Penn State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Penn State at Wisconsin	+5.5	48.5	W 16 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Penn State vs Ball State	-23.0	58.0	W 44 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Penn State vs Auburn	-4.0	53.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Penn State vs Villanova	-29.5	53.0	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/2	Penn State vs Indiana	-12.0	54.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Penn State at Iowa	+2.5	41.0	L 20 - 23	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Penn State vs Illinois	-24.5	46.0	L 18 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/30	Penn State at Ohio State	+18.5	60.5	L 24 - 33	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Penn State at Maryland	-10.0	56.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Penn State vs Michigan	+2.5	48.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/20	Penn State vs Rutgers	-14.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Penn State at Michigan State	-3.5	51.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 1/1	Penn State vs Arkansas	+3.5	51.0	L 10 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.13	40%	20.2	45%	3.38	174	33%	156	3.16	.18	44%	21.9	45%	42%	3.34	52.8	1	1.6
PSU	.14	40%	25	39%	2.69	108	40%	269	3.45	.06	39%	17.3	42%	36%	2.48	46.1	1.2	2.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	12	20.2	16	39.7%	3.16	1	18	330	174	156	4.5	59%	41%	45%	33%	16%	.13
PSU Defense	13	17.3	13	39%	2.48	2.4	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	42%	36%	16%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	12	21.9	22.4	43.6%	3.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	42%	15%	.18
PSU Offense	13	25	28.1	39.8%	3.45	1.2	20	376	108	269	3.2	43%	57%	39%	40%	15%	.14

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	12	29:11	17.6	38%	38%	5	52.8	1	1.6	5.7	2.5	0	28
Penn State	13	27:56	20.3	39%	46%	5.4	46.1	1.2	2.4	6.5	2	3	27

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	12	59%	45%	39	173.6	4.5	12	.15	3.38	86%	9%	0.87
PSU Defense	13	54%	42%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.89	79%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	12	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	78%	9%	0.83
PSU Offense	13	43%	39%	33.6	107.8	3.2	11	.02	2.69	61%	11%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	12	41%	33%	13.8	26.8	156.2	5.8	11.4	13	6	.12	1.7	34%	25%	.15	7%	1.8
PSU Defense	13	46%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.04	1.4	33%	25%	.18	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.4	31%	27%	.18	6%	1.7
PSU Offense	13	57%	40%	22.4	37.4	268.5	7.2	12	25	10	.24	1.6	35%	31%	.34	4%	2.1

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: Penn State: 9.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 4.3 Penn State: 14.3

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 9.65 NR
Penn State's Offense Rating: NR
Penn State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Penn State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Penn State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #19
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #72
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.4

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 24
Illinois 15

Total Points: 39

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 22
Illinois 12

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 25
Illinois 17

Total Points: 42

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.1
Defense: 17.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Penn State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Penn State	21	Illinois	7	Penn State -19.5	Illinois	48.0	Under
2023	09/16	Illinois	13	Penn State	30	Penn State -14	Penn State	47.5	Under
2021	10/23	Penn State	18	Illinois	20	Penn State -24.5	Illinois	46.0	Under
2020	12/19	Penn State	56	Illinois	21	Penn State -16	Penn State	53.5	Over
2018	09/21	Illinois	24	Penn State	63	Penn State -26.5	Penn State	61.0	Over
2015	10/31	Penn State	39	Illinois	0	Penn State -4	Penn State	44.5	Under
2014	11/22	Illinois	16	Penn State	14	Penn State -4.5	Illinois	0
2013	11/02	Penn State	24	Illinois	17	Penn State -10	Illinois	0
2012	09/29	Illinois	7	Penn State	35
2011	10/29	Penn State	10	Illinois	7
2010	10/09	Penn State	13	Illinois	33
2009	10/03	Illinois	17	Penn State	35
2008	09/27	Penn State	38	Illinois	24
2007	09/29	Illinois	27	Penn State	20
2006	10/21	Penn State	26	Illinois	12
2005	10/22	Illinois	10	Penn State	63
2002	11/02	Penn State	18	Illinois	7
2001	11/10	Illinois	33	Penn State	28
2000	10/20	Penn State	39	Illinois	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	14	4	2 Overs
Illinois	5	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 7	3 - 5	2 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 12	5 - 3	2 - 1	3 - 2

(#) ILL at (#) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#71
OffenseOff	#84	#88
DefenseDef	#39	#57
Spec TeamsST	#26	#11
TalentTal	#51	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Illinois Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#57
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#99	#6
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#77	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#5
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#79
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#88	#39
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#72	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#125	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#67	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#12

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#85	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 47°Rain: 0.028

Rematch from Week 8
Penn State -24.5 (46.0)
Illinois won at Penn State this year (20-18)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Illinois last year (21-7)
Penn State beat Illinois in 2023 (30-13)

ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Anthony Poindexter / Brent Pry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD