Duke at Middle Tennessee Week 4 College Football Matchup Duke at Middle Tennessee Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" Murfreesboro, TN · Turf · 31,000 cap
Duke✈ 415 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
45 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Duke
39
Middle Tennessee
13
P&R Line Duke -26
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Duke -14.5 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Duke has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Duke entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Duke wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Duke wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Duke -14.5
O/U 51.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Duke · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Middle Tennessee 2nd straight Home Game
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Duke vs Elon-24.5W26–347.5W26–3UN
Fri 9/6Duke vs Northwestern+2.5W26–2037.5W26–20OY
Sat 9/14Duke vs UConn-17.5W26–2146.5W26–21ON
Sat 9/21Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.5W45–1751.0W45–17OY
Sat 9/28Duke vs North Carolina+1.0W21–2055.5W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Duke at Georgia Tech+10.0L14–2452.5L14–24UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Duke vs Florida State-2.5W23–1643.0W23–16UY
Sat 10/26Duke vs SMU+11.5L27–2849.5L27–28OY
Sat 11/2Duke at Miami+21.0L31–5355.5L31–53ON
Sat 11/9Duke at NC State+3.5W29–1951.5W29–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.5W31–2845.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/30Duke at Wake Forest-3.5W23–1753.5W23–17UY
Thu 1/2Duke vs Ole Miss+17.5L20–5250.5L20–52ON
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Duke PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Duke #109
+0.442
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.181
Duke Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Duke #55
+0.748
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.254
Duke Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Duke #2
0.225
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Duke #90
+8.312
Middle Tennessee #128
+6.190
Duke Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Duke #116
+0.879
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.770
Duke Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Duke #24
68.8
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Duke Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Duke
4.1
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Offense Rating
Duke
14.3
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Duke
10.2
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Duke Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Duke #63
1.50
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #84
0.50
Middle Tennessee #133
4.50
Duke +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Duke Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Duke #1
50.4
Middle Tennessee #1
28.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #68
23.5
Middle Tennessee #131
62.3
Duke +21.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Duke with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jonathan Brewer Yr 1 #1
DC Jonathan Patke Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself