Duke at Wake Forest Week 14 College Football Matchup Duke at Wake Forest Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 BB&T Field Winston-Salem, NC · Turf · 31,500 cap
Away
23 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Duke
32
DUKE -3.5
Wake Forest
23
P&R Line Duke -9.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Duke -3.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Duke has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Duke entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Duke wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Duke wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Duke -3.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Duke · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Duke vs Elon-24.5W26–347.5W26–3UN
Fri 9/6Duke vs Northwestern+2.5W26–2037.5W26–20OY
Sat 9/14Duke vs UConn-17.5W26–2146.5W26–21ON
Sat 9/21Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.5W45–1751.0W45–17OY
Sat 9/28Duke vs North Carolina+1.0W21–2055.5W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Duke at Georgia Tech+10.0L14–2452.5L14–24UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Duke vs Florida State-2.5W23–1643.0W23–16UY
Sat 10/26Duke vs SMU+11.5L27–2849.5L27–28OY
Sat 11/2Duke at Miami+21.0L31–5355.5L31–53ON
Sat 11/9Duke at NC State+3.5W29–1951.5W29–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.5W31–2845.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/30Duke at Wake Forest-3.5W23–1753.5W23–17UY
Thu 1/2Duke vs Ole Miss+17.5L20–5250.5L20–52ON
Wake Forest 2024 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T-20.5
Sat 9/7Wake Forest vs Virginia+1.5L30–3155.5L30–31OY
Sat 9/14Wake Forest vs Ole Miss+20.5L6–4065.5L6–40UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Wake Forest vs Louisiana-3.0L38–4159.5L38–41ON
Sat 10/5Wake Forest at NC State+4.0W34–3052.5W34–30OY
Sat 10/12Wake Forest vs Clemson+21.0L14–4963.0L14–49UN
Sat 10/19Wake Forest at UConn-2.5W23–2055.5W23–20UY
Sat 10/26Wake Forest at Stanford-3.0W27–2453.0W27–24UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8Wake Forest vs California+7.5L36–4654.5L36–46ON
Sat 11/16Wake Forest at North Carolina+10.5L24–3164.5L24–31UY
Sat 11/23Wake Forest at Miami+23.5L14–4267.0L14–42UN
Sat 11/30Wake Forest vs Duke+3.5L17–2353.5L17–23UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Duke PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Duke #109
+0.390
Wake Forest #104
+0.185
Duke Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Duke #55
+0.631
Wake Forest #83
+0.288
Duke Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Duke #2
0.225
Wake Forest #130
0.120
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Duke #90
+7.820
Wake Forest #121
+6.393
Duke Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Duke #116
+0.893
Wake Forest #81
+0.795
Duke Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Duke #24
68.8
Wake Forest #71
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wake Forest Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Duke
3.0
Wake Forest
4.6
Offense Rating
Duke
15.3
Wake Forest
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Duke
12.2
Wake Forest
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Duke Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Duke #63
1.10
Wake Forest #106
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #84
1.10
Wake Forest #79
1.10
Duke +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Duke Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Duke #1
47.2
Wake Forest #1
36.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #68
31.9
Wake Forest #90
46.8
Duke +11.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wake Forest
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wake Forest
46.2 — 18.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Duke. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jonathan Brewer Yr 1 #1
DC Jonathan Patke Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
63–61 (51%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Warren Ruggiero Yr 3 #1
DC Brad Lambert Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself