Duke at Georgia Tech Week 6 College Football Matchup Duke at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 6 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Atlanta, GA · Turf · 55,000 cap
Duke✈ 344 miSame TZ
Away
14 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Duke
25
Georgia Tech
28
P&R Line Georgia Tech -3
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -10 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Duke has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Duke entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Duke wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Duke wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -10
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Georgia Tech Coming off BYE
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Duke vs Elon-24.5W26–347.5W26–3UN
Fri 9/6Duke vs Northwestern+2.5W26–2037.5W26–20OY
Sat 9/14Duke vs UConn-17.5W26–2146.5W26–21ON
Sat 9/21Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.5W45–1751.0W45–17OY
Sat 9/28Duke vs North Carolina+1.0W21–2055.5W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Duke at Georgia Tech+10.0L14–2452.5L14–24UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Duke vs Florida State-2.5W23–1643.0W23–16UY
Sat 10/26Duke vs SMU+11.5L27–2849.5L27–28OY
Sat 11/2Duke at Miami+21.0L31–5355.5L31–53ON
Sat 11/9Duke at NC State+3.5W29–1951.5W29–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.5W31–2845.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/30Duke at Wake Forest-3.5W23–1753.5W23–17UY
Thu 1/2Duke vs Ole Miss+17.5L20–5250.5L20–52ON
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Georgia Tech vs Florida State+10.0W24–2154.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/31Georgia Tech vs Georgia State-20.5W35–1257.0W35–12UY
Sat 9/7Georgia Tech at Syracuse-2.5L28–3160.5L28–31UN
Sat 9/14Georgia Tech vs VMI-42.5W59–753.5W59–7OY
Sat 9/21Georgia Tech at Louisville+9.5L19–3156.0L19–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Georgia Tech vs Duke-10.0W24–1452.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/12Georgia Tech at North Carolina-3.5W41–3460.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/19Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame+14.0L13–3149.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/26Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech+11.0L6–2152.0L6–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Georgia Tech vs Miami+9.5W28–2364.5W28–23UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/21Georgia Tech vs NC State-7.5W30–2951.5W30–29ON
Fri 11/29Georgia Tech at Georgia+17.5L42–4448.5L42–44OY
Fri 12/27Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt-3.0L27–3549.0L27–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Duke #109
+0.283
Georgia Tech #36
+0.299
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Duke #55
+0.546
Georgia Tech #26
+0.419
Duke Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Duke #2
0.225
Georgia Tech #78
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Duke #90
+7.671
Georgia Tech #35
+7.444
Duke Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Duke #116
+0.808
Georgia Tech #29
+0.835
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Duke #24
68.8
Georgia Tech #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Duke Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Duke
4.1
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
Duke
14.3
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Duke
10.2
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Duke Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Duke #63
1.50
Georgia Tech #79
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #84
0.50
Georgia Tech #34
0.75
Duke +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Duke Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Duke #1
49.5
Georgia Tech #1
44.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #68
29.2
Georgia Tech #52
34.8
Duke +4.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia Tech
61.4 — 17.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Duke, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jonathan Brewer Yr 1 #1
DC Jonathan Patke Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 2 #1
DC Tyler Santucci Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself