Virginia Tech at Duke Week 13 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Duke Matchup - Week 13
Sun, Nov 24 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Wallace Wade Stadium Durham, NC · Turf · 40,000 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 117 miSame TZ
28 31
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
26
Duke
23
P&R Line Virginia Tech -3.5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -2.5 · O/U 45.5
Matchup Prediction
Virginia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Virginia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -2.5
O/U 45.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Virginia Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Duke Coming off BYE 🛋 Virginia Tech Coming off BYE
Virginia Tech 2024 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt-13.5L27–3453.5L27–34ON
Sat 9/7Virginia Tech vs Marshall-20.5W31–1452.5W31–14UN
Sat 9/14Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-15.5W37–1747.5W37–17OY
Sat 9/21Virginia Tech vs Rutgers-3.0L23–2645.0L23–26ON
Fri 9/27Virginia Tech at Miami+17.5L34–3855.5L34–38OY
Sat 10/5Virginia Tech at Stanford-9.5W31–750.0W31–7UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Virginia Tech vs Boston College-8.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/26Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-11.0W21–652.0W21–6UY
Sat 11/2Virginia Tech at Syracuse-3.5L31–3854.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/9Virginia Tech vs Clemson+6.5L14–2454.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Virginia Tech at Duke-2.5L28–3145.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/30Virginia Tech vs Virginia-4.5W37–1744.5W37–17OY
Fri 1/3Virginia Tech vs Minnesota+10.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Duke vs Elon-24.5W26–347.5W26–3UN
Fri 9/6Duke vs Northwestern+2.5W26–2037.5W26–20OY
Sat 9/14Duke vs UConn-17.5W26–2146.5W26–21ON
Sat 9/21Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.5W45–1751.0W45–17OY
Sat 9/28Duke vs North Carolina+1.0W21–2055.5W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Duke at Georgia Tech+10.0L14–2452.5L14–24UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Duke vs Florida State-2.5W23–1643.0W23–16UY
Sat 10/26Duke vs SMU+11.5L27–2849.5L27–28OY
Sat 11/2Duke at Miami+21.0L31–5355.5L31–53ON
Sat 11/9Duke at NC State+3.5W29–1951.5W29–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.5W31–2845.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/30Duke at Wake Forest-3.5W23–1753.5W23–17UY
Thu 1/2Duke vs Ole Miss+17.5L20–5250.5L20–52ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Virginia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #75
+0.233
Duke #109
+0.205
Virginia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #100
+0.228
Duke #55
+0.452
Duke Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #10
0.201
Duke #2
0.225
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #40
+7.414
Duke #90
+6.673
Virginia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #87
+0.792
Duke #116
+0.774
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #46
69.8
Duke #24
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Duke
4.1
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.3
Duke
14.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.4
Duke
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #8
1.60
Duke #63
1.11
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #64
1.10
Duke #84
1.00
Virginia Tech +0.49
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
56.2
Duke #1
45.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #41
28.6
Duke #68
33.8
Virginia Tech +11.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia Tech
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Duke
66.2 — 13.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
10–14 (42%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 3 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jonathan Brewer Yr 1 #1
DC Jonathan Patke Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself