Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Duke wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Duke -24.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Elon 2024 Schedule
Elon's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Elon at Duke | +24.5L3–26 | 47.5 | L3–26 | U | Y |
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Duke vs Elon | -24.5W26–3 | 47.5 | W26–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/6 | Duke vs Northwestern | +2.5W26–20 | 37.5 | W26–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Duke vs UConn | -17.5W26–21 | 46.5 | W26–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Duke at Middle Tennessee | -14.5W45–17 | 51.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Duke vs North Carolina | +1.0W21–20 | 55.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Duke at Georgia Tech | +10.0L14–24 | 52.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Duke vs Florida State | -2.5W23–16 | 43.0 | W23–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Duke vs SMU | +11.5L27–28 | 49.5 | L27–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Duke at Miami | +21.0L31–53 | 55.5 | L31–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Duke at NC State | +3.5W29–19 | 51.5 | W29–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Duke vs Virginia Tech | +2.5W31–28 | 45.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Duke at Wake Forest | -3.5W23–17 | 53.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Duke vs Ole Miss | +17.5L20–52 | 50.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Elon Edge
Elon +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Duke Edge
Duke +42.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓