Fri, Oct 18 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, NC
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Florida State✈ 493 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Duke
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Duke entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Duke wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Duke wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Duke -2.5
O/U 43.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Duke
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2024 Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Florida State vs Georgia Tech | -10.0L21–24 | 54.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Mon 9/2 | Florida State vs Boston College | -16.5L13–28 | 50.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Florida State vs Memphis | -7.0L12–20 | 52.0 | L12–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida State vs California | -3.0W14–9 | 44.0 | W14–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida State at SMU | +6.0L16–42 | 46.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Florida State vs Clemson | +16.5L13–29 | 47.0 | L13–29 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Florida State at Duke | +2.5L16–23 | 43.0 | L16–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Florida State at Miami | +22.5L14–36 | 55.0 | L14–36 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Florida State vs North Carolina | +2.5L11–35 | 50.5 | L11–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Florida State at Notre Dame | +25.5L3–52 | 44.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Florida State vs Charleston Southern | -33.0W41–7 | 44.5 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida State vs Florida | +17.5L11–31 | 45.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Duke vs Elon | -24.5W26–3 | 47.5 | W26–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/6 | Duke vs Northwestern | +2.5W26–20 | 37.5 | W26–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Duke vs UConn | -17.5W26–21 | 46.5 | W26–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Duke at Middle Tennessee | -14.5W45–17 | 51.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Duke vs North Carolina | +1.0W21–20 | 55.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Duke at Georgia Tech | +10.0L14–24 | 52.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Duke vs Florida State | -2.5W23–16 | 43.0 | W23–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Duke vs SMU | +11.5L27–28 | 49.5 | L27–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Duke at Miami | +21.0L31–53 | 55.5 | L31–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Duke at NC State | +3.5W29–19 | 51.5 | W29–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Duke vs Virginia Tech | +2.5W31–28 | 45.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Duke at Wake Forest | -3.5W23–17 | 53.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Duke vs Ole Miss | +17.5L20–52 | 50.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Duke Edge
Duke +0.87
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Duke Edge
Duke +25.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Duke
65.2 — 18.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Duke won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Duke with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
31–17 (65%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 3
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 3
#1
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jonathan Brewer
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jonathan Patke
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓