NC State at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
NCST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -3  (SP+ FSU -2)
Projected Score: NCST: 28 - FSU: 31 (59)
FSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NCST Travel: 491 miles
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
NC State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 NC State at Virginia+3.5
Sat 9/12 NC State vs Richmond-30.5
Sat 9/19 NC State at Vanderbilt+12
Sat 9/26 NC State vs App State-20.5
Sat 10/3 NC State vs Louisville+1
Sat 10/10 NC State vs Wake Forest-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23 NC State at Stanford-9.5
Fri 10/30 NC State vs California-9
Fri 11/6 NC State vs Duke-5.5
Sat 11/14 NC State vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/21 NC State at Florida State+3
Sat 11/28 NC State at North Carolina-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia-2
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-10
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+3
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-3
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#20 (.28)44% (50)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (44)2464.69 (8)#102 (.21)39% (39)27.238% (19)40% (55)3.7 (72)53.811.2
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.839.2%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:5620.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (33)2.94 (68)73% (61)10% (98)1.1 (19)
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1343% (6)38% (19) - - - - .12 (80)2.87 (64)65% (25)8% (109)1.09 (124)
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (44)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (33)31% (65)32% (49).4 (32)6% (51)2.1 (53)
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1356% (134)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (90)1.7 (117)35% (21)31% (91).38 (111)7% (46)2.1 (83)
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 9.52  #27
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.15  #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.63  #42
2026 Talent Rating: 830.00  #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.52   Florida State: 10.175

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.175  #31
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.90  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.75  #37
2026 Talent Rating: 838.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 45  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 31
NC State 28

Projected Total Points: 59
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/21NC State21Florida State11Florida State -7NC State58.5Under
202210/08NC State19Florida State17NC State -3.5Florida State50.5Under
202111/06Florida State14NC State28NC State -3NC State55.0Under
202011/14NC State38Florida State22NC State -12.0NC State61.0Under
201909/28Florida State31NC State13Florida State -7Florida State62.0Under
201811/03NC State47Florida State28NC State -9.5NC State52.0Over
201709/23Florida State21NC State27Florida State -11.5NC State50.0Under
201611/05NC State20Florida State24Florida State -6.5NC State58.0Under
201511/14Florida State34NC State17Florida State -10.5Florida State55.0Under
201409/27NC State41Florida State56Florida State -23NC State0
201310/26Florida State49NC State17Florida State -27.5Florida State0
201210/06NC State17Florida State16
201110/29Florida State34NC State0
201010/28NC State28Florida State24
200910/31Florida State45NC State42
200810/16NC State17Florida State26
200710/06Florida State27NC State10
200610/05NC State24Florida State20
200511/05Florida State15NC State20
200411/11NC State10Florida State17
200311/15Florida State50NC State44
200111/10Florida State28NC State34
200010/27NC State14Florida State58
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State1241 Overs
NC State1178 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 98 - 35 - 23 - 1
Road Teams9 - 143 - 81 - 32 - 5

(#27) NCST at (#31) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #27 #31
SP+SP+ #55 #41
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #42 #38
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #17
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #50 #76
ExplosiveExp #13 #14
PPAPPA #20 #68
PowerPwr #21 #37
SP+SP+ #45 #38
Pts POPPO #8 #110
HavocHav #74 #72
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #66
Run ExplRExp #19 #19
PPAExp #33 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #68 #106
Stuff RateStuff #112 #120
TackleTak - NR
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #79
Pass ExplPExl #33 #58
PPAExp #25 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #28
DB HavocDB #51 #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffNCST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #39
ExplosiveExp #20 #134
PPAPPA #22 #102
PowerPwr #30 #42
SP+SP+ #54 #64
Pts POPPO #46 #72
HavocHav #54 #86
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNCST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #19
Run ExplRExp #45 #124
PPAExp #12 #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #64
Stuff RateStuff #5 #65
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffNCST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #55
Pass ExplPExl #5 #117
PPAExp #46 #90
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #109
DB HavocDB #48 #46
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
NC State beat Florida State last year (21-11)

  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Will Wilson3560%16013.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Scott10659545.669
Davion Gause (Tr)6125834.225
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow (Tr)62815813.175
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Teddy Hoffmann25349314.055
Keenan Jackson28281210.033

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
King Mack (Tr)581113
Ronnie Royal III492001
Jackson Vick452006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harvey Dyson III3110701
Chase Bond116220
Joseph Adedire62100
King Mack (Tr)581113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II291006
King Mack (Tr)581113

FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Blake Nichelson437111
Jeremiah Wilson421002
Ma'Khi Jones (Tr)342111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Daniel Lyons264240
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Jeremiah Wilson421002