Louisville at NC State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (28 - 12)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
NCST is playing their 5th straight game
LOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -1  (SP+ LOU -7.5)
Projected Score: LOU: 28 - NCST: 27 (54)
LOU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
LOU Travel: 422 miles
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Louisville at Ole Miss+12.5
Fri 9/11 Louisville vs Villanova-34
Sat 9/19 Louisville vs SMU-1.5
Sat 9/26 Louisville vs Wake Forest-7
Sat 10/3 Louisville at NC State-1
Fri 10/9 Louisville vs Florida State-5.5
Sat 10/17 Louisville at Syracuse-15.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Louisville vs Stanford-18
Fri 11/6 Louisville at Georgia Tech-1
Sat 11/14 Louisville at North Carolina-9
Sat 11/21 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-5
Sat 11/28 Louisville at Kentucky-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
NC State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 NC State at Virginia+3.5
Sat 9/12 NC State vs Richmond-30.5
Sat 9/19 NC State at Vanderbilt+12
Sat 9/26 NC State vs App State-20.5
Sat 10/3 NC State vs Louisville+1
Sat 10/10 NC State vs Wake Forest-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23 NC State at Stanford-9.5
Fri 10/30 NC State vs California-9
Fri 11/6 NC State vs Duke-5.5
Sat 11/14 NC State vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/21 NC State at Florida State+3
Sat 11/28 NC State at North Carolina-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#84 (.15)45% (44)29.950% (8)2.75 (105)16441% (74)2213.62 (77)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (15)37% (19)3.38 (43)63.21.31.5
NCST#20 (.28)44% (50)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (44)2464.69 (8)#102 (.21)39% (39)27.238% (19)40% (55)3.7 (72)53.811.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1329.92344.7%3.621.3203851642215.144%53%50%41%17%.15
NCST Defense1327.22139.2%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1321.225.536.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
NCST Offense1330.235.343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1330:1219.635%64%6.963.21.31.55.92.4232.4
NC State1329:5620.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1344% (111)50% (8)32.31645.125 (70).21 (21)2.75 (105)65% (108)10% (98)1.08 (28)
NCST Defense1343% (6)38% (19) - - - - .12 (80)2.87 (64)65% (25)8% (109)1.09 (124)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (15) - - - - .07 (51)2.74 (41)75% (97)11% (38)0.95 (63)
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (33)2.94 (68)73% (61)10% (98)1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1353% (35)41% (74)20.632.2220.66.910.718 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (131)28% (21)27% (104).14 (124)6% (90)1.9 (107)
NCST Defense1356% (134)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (90)1.7 (117)35% (21)31% (91).38 (111)7% (46)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (19) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (7)34% (24)24% (8).11 (9)7% (38)1.9 (23)
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (44)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (33)31% (65)32% (49).4 (32)6% (51)2.1 (53)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 8.63  #30
Louisville's Offense Rating: 14.86  #36
Louisville's Defense Rating: 11.23  #31
2026 Talent Rating: 750.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Louisville's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 8.63   NC State: 9.66

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.4   NC State: 4.8




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 9.66  #27
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.15  #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.63  #42
2026 Talent Rating: 830.00  #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 28
NC State 27

Projected Total Points: 54
NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/29NC State10Louisville13Louisville -3.5NC State56.5Under
202211/19Louisville25NC State10Louisville -4Louisville43.0Under
202110/30NC State28Louisville13NC State -6NC State57.0Under
201911/16NC State20Louisville34Louisville -4.5Louisville52.0Over
201811/17Louisville10NC State52NC State -16NC State65.0Under
201710/05NC State39Louisville25Louisville -3.5NC State67.0Under
201610/22Louisville54NC State13Louisville -20Louisville65.0Over
201510/03NC State13Louisville20NC State -5Louisville47.5Under
201410/18Louisville30NC State18Louisville -14.5NC State0
201112/27NC State31Louisville24
200709/29NC State10Louisville29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State452 Overs
Louisville746 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 55 - 43 - 22 - 2
Road Teams5 - 64 - 52 - 22 - 3

(#30) LOU at (#27) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUNCST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #30 #27
SP+SP+ #25 #55
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #64 #42
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #39
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffNCST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #44 #39
ExplosiveExp #90 #134
PPAPPA #84 #102
PowerPwr #36 #42
SP+SP+ #39 #64
Pts POPPO #77 #72
HavocHav #93 #86
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffNCST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #19
Run ExplRExp #28 #124
PPAExp #21 #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #105 #64
Stuff RateStuff #122 #65
TackleTak - NR
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffNCST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #55
Pass ExplPExl #131 #117
PPAExp #119 #90
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #109
DB HavocDB #90 #46
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffLOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #50 #16
ExplosiveExp #13 #26
PPAPPA #20 #15
PowerPwr #21 #31
SP+SP+ #45 #29
Pts POPPO #8 #43
HavocHav #74 #33
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffLOU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #15
Run ExplRExp #19 #63
PPAExp #33 #51
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #68 #41
Stuff RateStuff #112 #52
TackleTak - NR
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatNCST OffLOU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #19
Pass ExplPExl #33 #7
PPAExp #25 #6
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #38
DB HavocDB #51 #38
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Louisville beat NC State in 2023 (13-10)

  
LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lincoln Kienholz (Tr)111479%139109.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Marquise Davis (Tr)3420025.923
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Jackson Voth (Tr)48536411.235
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Lawayne McCoy (Tr)27403314.934

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Koen Entringer (Tr)734013
Clev Lubin5913873
Corey Gordon533002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin5913873
Tyler Thompson (Tr)268711
Adonijah Green316440
Antonio Watts427323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Tayon Holloway424104
Clev Lubin5913873

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Will Wilson3560%16013.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Scott10659545.669
Davion Gause (Tr)6125834.225
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow (Tr)62815813.175
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Teddy Hoffmann25349314.055
Keenan Jackson28281210.033

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
King Mack (Tr)581113
Ronnie Royal III492001
Jackson Vick452006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harvey Dyson III3110701
Chase Bond116220
Joseph Adedire62100
King Mack (Tr)581113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II291006
King Mack (Tr)581113