NC State at Vanderbilt - 2026 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresVanderbilt logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Vanderbilt Stadium - Nashville, TN

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
VAN 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -12  (SP+ VAN -16)
Projected Score: NCST: 25 - VAN: 37 (62)
VAN Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
NCST Travel: 453 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Commodores (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (26 - 36)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
NC State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 NC State at Virginia+3.5
Sat 9/12 NC State vs Richmond-30.5
Sat 9/19 NC State at Vanderbilt+12
Sat 9/26 NC State vs App State-20.5
Sat 10/3 NC State vs Louisville+1
Sat 10/10 NC State vs Wake Forest-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23 NC State at Stanford-9.5
Fri 10/30 NC State vs California-9
Fri 11/6 NC State vs Duke-5.5
Sat 11/14 NC State vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/21 NC State at Florida State+3
Sat 11/28 NC State at North Carolina-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Vanderbilt vs Austin Peay-40
Sat 9/12 Vanderbilt vs Delaware-33
Sat 9/19 Vanderbilt vs NC State-12
Sat 9/26 Vanderbilt at Auburn-1.5
Sat 10/3 Vanderbilt at Georgia+12.5
Sat 10/10 Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss+1.5
Sat 10/17 Vanderbilt vs Arkansas-15
Sat 10/24 Vanderbilt at Kentucky-11.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Vanderbilt at Mississippi State-7.5
Sat 11/14 Vanderbilt vs Alabama-1.5
Sat 11/21 Vanderbilt at Florida-4.5
Sat 11/28 Vanderbilt vs Tennessee-3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#20 (.28)44% (50)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (44)2464.69 (8)#102 (.21)39% (39)27.238% (19)40% (55)3.7 (72)53.811.2
VAN#1 (.44)52% (1)38.550% (8)3.37 (9)17654% (3)2875 (3)#99 (.2)42% (68)22.840% (46)43% (91)3.9 (90)59.70.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28
VAN Defense1322.821.141.7%3.91.2 - - - - - 44%54%40%43%17%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.839.2%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
VAN Offense1338.54451.9%50.9244631762875.747%52%50%54%13%.44

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:5620.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Vanderbilt1331:1824.151%56%6.859.70.91.26.22.4129.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (33)2.94 (68)73% (61)10% (98)1.1 (19)
VAN Defense1344% (11)40% (46) - - - - .04 (31)2.66 (24)72% (75)11% (20)0.93 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1343% (6)38% (19) - - - - .12 (80)2.87 (64)65% (25)8% (109)1.09 (124)
VAN Offense1347% (92)50% (8)30.9175.95.735 (4).35 (1)3.37 (9)76% (38)8% (30)1.21 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (44)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (33)31% (65)32% (49).4 (32)6% (51)2.1 (53)
VAN Defense1354% (124)43% (91) - - - - - - 8 (75).35 (115)1.6 (76)34% (25)30% (78).38 (109)6% (69)2 (78)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1356% (134)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (90)1.7 (117)35% (21)31% (91).38 (111)7% (46)2.1 (83)
VAN Offense1352% (44)54% (3)21.530.8287.39.313.430 (22)8 (34).55 (1)1.5 (74)26% (13)49% (1).78 (1)5% (28)2 (78)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 9.52  #27
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.15  #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.63  #42
2026 Talent Rating: 830.00  #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.52   Vanderbilt: 19.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Vanderbilt: 20.3




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 19.09  #22
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 22.11  #10
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 14.23  #45
2026 Talent Rating: 818.00  #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Vanderbilt's 2026 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.3  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #5
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 37
NC State 25

Projected Total Points: 62
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201612/26Vanderbilt17NC State41NC State -4NC State47.0Over
201212/31Vanderbilt38NC State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt101 Overs
NC State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#27) NCST at (#22) VAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTVAN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #27 #22
SP+SP+ #55 #11
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #42 #49
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #49
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffVAN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #50 #68
ExplosiveExp #13 #103
PPAPPA #20 #99
PowerPwr #21 #45
SP+SP+ #45 #39
Pts POPPO #8 #90
HavocHav #74 #39
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffVAN Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #46
Run ExplRExp #19 #54
PPAExp #33 #31
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #68 #24
Stuff RateStuff #112 #31
TackleTak - NR
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffVAN Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #91
Pass ExplPExl #33 #76
PPAExp #25 #115
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #20
DB HavocDB #51 #69
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffNCST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #1 #39
ExplosiveExp #9 #134
PPAPPA #1 #102
PowerPwr #10 #42
SP+SP+ #5 #64
Pts POPPO #3 #72
HavocHav #25 #86
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffNCST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #19
Run ExplRExp #2 #124
PPAExp #1 #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #9 #64
Stuff RateStuff #25 #65
TackleTak - NR
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffNCST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #55
Pass ExplPExl #74 #117
PPAExp #1 #90
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #30 #109
DB HavocDB #28 #46
Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Will Wilson3560%16013.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Scott10659545.669
Davion Gause (Tr)6125834.225
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow (Tr)62815813.175
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Teddy Hoffmann25349314.055
Keenan Jackson28281210.033

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
King Mack (Tr)581113
Ronnie Royal III492001
Jackson Vick452006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harvey Dyson III3110701
Chase Bond116220
Joseph Adedire62100
King Mack (Tr)581113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II291006
King Mack (Tr)581113

VAN's OC Tim Beck (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Whit Muschamp2367%400013.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sedrick Alexander106570115.465
Makhilyn Young4541169.180
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Blaze Berlowitz118117.443
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Sherrill54784714.546
Ja'Cory Thomas (Tr)41714517.455
Jayvontay Conner (Tr)23333314.579
Cole Spence15233215.533

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard714253
Bryan Longwell709142
Talan Carter (Tr)557232
Nicholas Rinaldi477491
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nicholas Rinaldi477491
Bryce Cowan324351
C.J. Heard714253
Talan Carter (Tr)557232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard714253
Ricardo Jones (Tr)391003
Jordan Matthews191003