Virginia at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles

Florida State logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (22 - 26)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
FSU 2nd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -0.5  (SP+ UVA -4)
Projected Score: UVA: 27 - FSU: 27 (54)
UVA Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
UVA Travel: 620 miles
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Virginia's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Virginia vs NC State-5
Sat 9/12 Virginia vs Norfolk State-34.5
Sat 9/19 Virginia at West Virginia-8.5
Sat 9/26 Virginia vs Delaware-22.5
Sat 10/3 Virginia at Florida State-0.5
Sat 10/10 Virginia vs Syracuse-18.5
Sat 10/17 Virginia at SMU+5.5
Fri 10/23 Virginia vs Duke-6.5
Sat 10/31 Virginia at Wake Forest-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 Virginia vs California-10.5
Sat 11/21 Virginia vs North Carolina-14
Sat 11/28 Virginia at Virginia Tech-9

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+13.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31.5
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia+0.5
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+7
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson+0.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-8.5
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+4
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-2
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (63)3.04 (53)18041% (79)2393.56 (82)#17 (.06)37% (20)19.639% (30)37% (22)3.01 (17)44.111.4
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1430.828.641.6%3.561224191802394.650%49%44%41%14%.18
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1419.623.237.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1432:1621.650%47%5.344.111.44.82.1330.7
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1450% (66)44% (63)38.9179.94.629 (11).19 (30)3.04 (53)81% (11)8% (23)1.06 (31)
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1451% (77)39% (30) - - - - .04 (33)2.75 (42)71% (70)9% (77)0.92 (46)
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1449% (71)41% (79)22.535.1239.16.810.618 (50)10 (60).24 (76)1.5 (73)32% (85)33% (34).36 (46)6% (65)1.9 (114)
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1447% (53)37% (22) - - - - - - 14 (38).15 (24)1.5 (44)32% (59)23% (3).11 (8)9% (5)1.9 (25)
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 11.13  #34
Virginia's Offense Rating: 15.05  #57
Virginia's Defense Rating: 8.92  #28
2026 Talent Rating: 920.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #73
Virginia's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
Virginia's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1  #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.13   Florida State: 10.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.1   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.64  #42
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.77  #45
Florida State's Defense Rating: 11.69  #39
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 27
Florida State 27

Projected Total Points: 54
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/26Virginia46Florida State38Florida State -7Virginia59.5Over
201909/14Virginia31Florida State24Virginia -7Push54.5Over
201411/08Florida State34Virginia20Florida State -21.5Virginia0
201111/19Florida State13Virginia14
201010/02Virginia14Florida State34
200611/04Florida State33Virginia0
200510/15Virginia26Florida State21
200410/16Florida State36Virginia3
200310/18Virginia14Florida State19
200208/31Florida State40Virginia19
200110/20Virginia7Florida State43
200010/20Florida State37Virginia3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State802 Overs
Virginia420 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 41 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 81 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#34) UVA at (#42) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUVAFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #34 #42
SP+SP+ #31 #41
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #29 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #73 #17
Virginia Notes
(2/15) Vibes: Hopeful, '25 was big boost, want more
(2/6) WR Edrine (#2 LY) arrested, no longer w team
(2/6) QB Pribula (Miz) is good, mobile, rec from injury
(2/6) RB 3 portals, good unit w depth & rotation
(2/6) WR counting on 3 portals & depth w limited exp
(2/6) OL good LY & has 3 back and decent depth
(2/6) DL added 7 portals, lots of G5 risers. Unclear
(2/6) LB corp strong that can go at least 6 deep
(2/6) CB & Saf each 4 portal adds. CB looks like big ?
(2/4) Overall talent #'s back to normal after '25 jump
(2/2) HC Elliott saved job LY, but now has to rebuild
Virginia Injury Report
Florida State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) QB: A Daniels (Aub) starter? DeNobile (FCS)?
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #82 #76
ExplosiveExp #43 #14
PPAPPA #64 #68
PowerPwr #57 #39
SP+SP+ #56 #38
Pts POPPO #82 #110
HavocHav #39 #72
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #66
Run ExplRExp #31 #19
PPAExp #30 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #53 #106
Stuff RateStuff #32 #120
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #79
Pass ExplPExl #73 #58
PPAExp #76 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #28
DB HavocDB #65 #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffUVA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #20
ExplosiveExp #20 #35
PPAPPA #22 #17
PowerPwr #45 #28
SP+SP+ #54 #19
Pts POPPO #46 #17
HavocHav #54 #23
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #30
Run ExplRExp #45 #46
PPAExp #12 #33
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #42
Stuff RateStuff #5 #68
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #22
Pass ExplPExl #5 #44
PPAExp #46 #24
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #77
DB HavocDB #48 #5
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Florida State last year (46-38)

  
UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)18227067%19461197.2
Eli Holstein (Tr)7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)14075245.472
Solomon Beebe (Tr)5633866.081
Beau Pribula (Tr)9529763.149
Peyton Lewis (Tr)7029074.132
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquon Gibson (Tr)6361609.850
Dashawn Martin33507415.475
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)40412310.348
Tyson Davis (Tr)25323212.936

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Jones (Tr)665001
Kamren Robinson644221
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Maddox Marcellus493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson (Tr)4210641
Nnanna Anyanwu (Tr)217541
Fisher Camac446424
Jason Hammond333340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donavon Platt342006
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Fisher Camac446424

FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)22334764%25281977.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Blake Nichelson437111
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ja'Bril Rawls402002